The Dolphins are poised to start Tyler Huntley at quarterback. Huntley was signed off the Baltimore Ravens practice squad shortly after quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion.
Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley has been targetted 20+ yards downfield on 43.8% of his targets.
Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders is four of six this season on field goals, with one miss coming from 57 yards in Week 3.
In Week 4, we’ll once again have two games on Monday Night Football, with one of them including the Miami Dolphins and the Tennessee Titans. It appears as though the Dolphins will send out Tyler Huntley to start this game, marking the fourth quarterback that’ll have seen action for the Dolphins in the young season. Because of that and the concussion suffered by starter Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins are now +1500 in the AFC East odds.
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This Same Game Parlay has odds of +390.
The Dolphins head into this game coming off a blowout loss in Week 2 at home to the Buffalo Bills, in which Tagovailoa threw three interceptions. Then, in Week 3, on the road against the Seattle Seahawks, they could only muster three points.
Not only is Tagovailoa out, but backup Skylar Thompson seems questionable/doubtful to play in Week 4 with a rib injury.
Thus, we’ll see Huntley, who landed on the Dolphins roster from the Baltimore Ravens practice squad shortly after Taovailoa’s third diagnosed concussion.
Remember, that happened in Week 2.
I’m leaning toward the Dolphins here because they’re taking on a Titans roster with a quarterback who simply turns the ball over far too much. Not only does Will Levis have three fumbles, but he’s second in the NFL in interceptions with five of them. He’s thrown two or more in two of three games this season.
As for Huntley, no, he’s not a glamorous signal-caller, but he has starting experience. In 2023, he had a start in Week 18 while with the Ravens against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He completed less than 54% of his passes, but he had a touchdown pass, no turnovers, and 40 rushing yards.
The Dolphins have enough weapons and dynamic running backs to help move the ball downfield, and Huntley, who’s in his fifth season, will take care of the ball.
The total in this game is just around 36 points, so expect a low-scoring affair here. The Dolphins edge it out at home and improve to 2-2, while the Titans fall to 0-4, and the AFC South odds get even further from them.
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Ridley was a massive free agent signing for the Titans this offseason, and through three games, he has eight catches on 16 targets for 136 yards and a touchdown. He’s averaging 17 yards per reception, leading the team in targets and receiving snaps.
Additionally, Ridley has an average depth of target of 22.7 yards, so Levis is looking for him down the field often.
In fact, 43.8% of Ridley’s targets have been 20+ yards downfield. He’s caught two of seven of those passes for 62 yards and a touchdown, averaging 31 yards per reception. From there, 18.8% of his targets have come 10-19 yards downfield. On those, he has two catches on three targets for 38 yards, averaging 19 yards per catch.
The line here of 18.5 is extremely doable. Ridley is targeted downfield so often that he should have multiple chances to get this done.
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Here we go—kicker props. This season, Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders has converted four of six field goals, including the game-winner in Week 1.
One of his misses in Week 3 was from 57 yards, and while many kickers (including Sanders; he hit a 58-yard field goal in the preseason against the Atlanta Falcons) can do that, there’s some variability with kicks of that length.
He’s averaging two field goal attempts per game and has a lifetime field goal percentage of 82.8%.
Two or more field goals is more than possible here. I think it fits in with the style of game the Dolphins will have to play here. Huntley will keep the ball out of harm’s way and convert first downs, and Sanders should see multiple field goal attempts in the 40-49-yard range.
Since 2022 and during the regular season, kickers on the team with Huntley are averaging 2.5 attempts per game. And by kickers, I mean Ravens kicker Justin Tucker, who converted seven of 10 of those.
A Huntley-led offense will put the kicker in a position to make some field goals, and I think Sanders will get it done.
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