AFC South Odds, Predictions, Best Picks 2023

• The AFC South has been dominated by the Colts historically 
• The Jaguars won the division in 2022 thanks to Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson
• The Colts, Texans, and Titans all drafted quarterbacks of the future this summer

One of the youngest and most uncertain divisions heading into the 2023 NFL season is the AFC South. While that may be troubling from a long-term stability perspective, it creates one of the most exciting environments for a divisional battle in football.

The Jacksonville Jaguars sit atop the pecking order after a late-season surge helped them get to and win a playoff game in 2022. The Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, and Tennessee Titans all drafted top-end quarterbacks and are transitioning to the future and have supporting casts of varying abilities.

How will the Jags function as the hunted instead of the hunters? And will youthful naivety help one of these teams spring an upset? Here’s our full breakdown of what is to come in the AFC South. 

AFC South Odds

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook

Favorites to Win the AFC South

The Jaguars are the favorites to win the 2023 AFC South title. They went 9-8 and were the only AFC South team with a winning record in 2022 and even came back from 27-0 down to the Los Angele Chargers in the playoffs to advance to the second round, where they lost a close game to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Trevor Lawrence’s in-season development was crucial in Jacksonville’s widespread improvement. They have concerning gaps in the secondary but can collapse the pocket and also have one of the seven best quarterbacks in the league, leaving them in a strong spot at the most important position on the field.

The Tennessee Titans are the next-closest team in odds but could be receiving a facelift sooner than later. Ryan Tannehill’s tenure in barbecue country had a nice run but appears to be coming to an end, which would presumably leave rookie Will Levis to step in and save the Titans’ title hopes.

AFC South Division Winner Predictions and Picks

Our pick: Jaguars (-160)

The Jaguars have everything that a team needs to succeed in the modern NFL: a top-end quarterback, a risk-taking head coach, and a defense that can get after the QB and force turnovers. They outscored opponents by nearly a touchdown on average while winning six of their last seven games in 2022 and are in their “take the leap” year that should see them vault into perennial top-four seeding. 

Longshot: Indianapolis Colts (+550)

Sorry, Texans fans, but top draft picks C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. have essentially no hope of overcoming a roster completely bereft of talent. The true outside challengers to the AFC South are the Colts, who have a running game and playmaking receivers and can also get after the quarterback. Whether or not they do contend for the division pennant will come down to how quickly rookie QB Anthony Richardson can enter the lineup and be productive while doing so.

History of AFC South Winners

How to Watch the 2023 NFL Regular Season

• Where: USA and international 
• When: Thursday, Sep 7, 2023 - Sunday, Jan 7, 2024
• How to watch: FOX, ESPN, Amazon Prime Video, CBS, NBC, and NFL Network