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AFC South Odds, Predictions, Best Picks 2024: Can the Texans Repeat as Champions?

Written by: Michael Savio
Updated May 27, 2024
10 min read
  • The Texans are favored to win the division in 2024

  • Jacksonville lost five of their final six games last year

  • The Titans lost Denico Autry, Derrick Henry, and Ryan Tannehill in the offseason

The AFC South appears to have a new powerhouse in the Houston Texans, but the Jags and Colts could test them this season. Last year’s division race was wild, as a late-season collapse from the Jags let the Texans overtake them to win it in Week 18. While the Texans have done much to improve, we expect another competitive battle for the AFC South title this season.

Below, we will share the latest odds and insights into all four AFC South teams, along with our pick to win it.

AFC South Odds

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Click the odds in the table below and claim: $1,000 First Bet on Caesars.

Houston Texans+100
Jacksonville Jaguars+285
Indianapolis Colts+320
Tennessee Titans+1000
Afc South Division Winner

AFC South Predictions and Favorites to Win

Houston Texans (+100 at Caesars Sportsbook)

We are all in on the Texans this season. After being the biggest surprise of the 2023 season, the team went out and got a lot better in the offseason. On offense, they found a reliable running back in Joe Mixon and signed an elite receiver in Stefon Diggs. Those weapons will help CJ Stroud take a significant step forward this season, leading to an AFC South title.

In addition to adding weapons to its offense, Houston hao upgraded its pass rush in a major way. The team added defensive end Denico Autry and defensive end Danielle Hunter. Those are two of the best pass rushers at their respective positions, combining for 28 sacks last season. That will help boost their pass defense and make this Texans team very difficult to beat.

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Jacksonville Jaguars (+285 at Caesars Sportsbook)

The Jaguars started last season 8-3 but lost five of their final six games. Their sole win came against a Panthers team that won just two games. That cold streak led to them blowing their division, which led to a Texans team that is even better this season. While we love rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr., we don’t think this team did enough to improve in the offseason.

The biggest question coming into the season is Trevor Lawrence. The young quarterback broke out in 2023 but regressed severely in the second half of last season. Lawrence completed under 60% of his passes in three of his final four games, throwing for seven touchdowns and seven interceptions. While we know how good the 2021 top pick can be, it seems some teams may have figured him out. 

Now, it’ll be up to Lawrence to regain his confidence and improve in 2024.

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Indianapolis Colts (+320 at Caesars Sportsbook)

The Colts made an incredible run with Gardner Minshew last season, but we don’t expect similar results in 2024. One reason for that is that Minshew is gone, once again turning the reigns over to rookie Anthony Richardson. The 22-year-old struggled in limited time before picking up a season-ending sprain to his AC Joint. The good news is he returns to a team with some great young playmakers, but health is a concern.  Jonathan Taylor’s ability to stay healthy will likely determine Anthony Richardson's success this season. The Pro Bowl running was limited to just 21 games over the last two seasons, including ten last season. While consistency was a bit of an issue when healthy, he had a few games that reminded us how great he can be. Zach Moss bailed the Colts’ backfield out with the best season of his career, but he’s gone now. Without a stellar backup, an injury to Taylor will put even more pressure on the young quarterback, leading to an ugly season. 

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Tennessee Titans (+1000 at Caesars Sportsbook)

This isn’t the same Titans team we have seen over the last decade. Gone are Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, and Denico Autry as the team rebuilds around second-year quarterback Will Levis. They made significant upgrades at the receiver position, bringing in Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. They also added a solid running back in Tony Pollard, to replace Henry in the backfield. That gives Levis a lot of weapons and could lead to a big year from the promising young passer.

Unfortunately for Titans fans, their defense will likely be a mess. The loss of Autry is a big deal, as the tackle anchored the Titan’s defensive line for years and led the team in sacks last year. Given that the defense allowed the sixteenth most points in the league last season, we expect the loss of the star will lead to the defense being one of the worst in football in 2024. 

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AFC South Pick - My Pick

Houston Texans +100 at Caesars Sportsbook

We are so impressed by what the Texans did in the offseason, especially on defense. We also can’t wait to see what CJ Stroud can do with a receiver like Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon in the backfield. Those veterans boost any already great young lineup, making them a force to be reckoned with in 2024. While the Jags could regain their form, we don’t think they have the talent to compete with this Houston team.

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Previous AFC South Winners

YearWinnerPlayoff Results
2014Indianapolis ColtsLost AFC Championship
2015Houston TexansLost Wild Card Round
2016Houston TexansLost Divisional Round
2017Jacksonville JaguarsLost AFC Championship
2018Houston TexansLost Wild Card Round
2019Houston TexansLost Divisional Round
2020Tennessee TitansLost Wild Card Round
2021Tennessee TitansLost Divisional Round
2022Jacksonville JaguarsLost Divisional Round
2023Houston TexansLost Divisional Round

How to Read Future NFL Odds

NFL futures odds work the same as any other bet. Each bet includes a number following the team or player, preceded by a plus or minus sign. 

A plus sign before the number usually indicates an underdog, which is common with futures bets. If the odds next to a team or player have a plus sign, that is the amount that you will win for every $100 you bet.

A minus sign usually indicates the favorite to win, though they are rarely seen for future bets. A minus sign in front of the odds means that is how much you need to bet to win $100.

For example, you bet $100 on the Texans +100 to win the AFC South. If they win the division, you will win $100 

If you aren't looking to bet $100 at a time, don't worry! Check out our odds calculator to help you determine potential winnings based on different wager amounts.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the AFC South

Are you ready to start betting on the AFC South but unsure where to start? If so, we have you covered with our sportsbook reviews. Below is a comparison between some of the industry’s top online sportsbooks.

Odds for AFC South FavoriteTexans +100Texans +100Texans +110
Welcome BonusBet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets$1,000 First Bet on CaesarsGet Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets!*
Payment Options- ACH Payments Bank Transfer
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- PayPal
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- Debit Cards
- Online Bank Transfer
- PayPal
- Prepaid Play+ Card
- Skrill
- PayNearMe
- ACH Payments Bank Transfer
- Visa
- Mastercard
- American Express
- Discover Credit Card
- PayPal
- Neteller
- Skrill
Withdrawal TimeInstantUp to 72 hoursInstant

*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.

More NFL Division Betting Guides


What team is favored to win the AFC South?

Who won the AFC South last year?

When is the AFC South winner decided?

Which team has won the AFC South the most?


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Michael Savio

504 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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