AFC South Odds, Predictions, Best Picks 2024: Can the Jags Bounce Back?

• The Texans are favored to win the division in 2024

• Denico Autry will serve a six-game suspension for PEDs

• Trevor Lawrence threw seven interceptions over the Jags last four games

• Jonathan Taylor has not played in 12+ games in two consecutive seasons

The AFC South was a thrilling division race last season, and we expect another one this year. The Houston Texans remain the favorite after making significant upgrades in the offseason, but the Colts and Jaguars aren’t far behind. That means there are some tremendous future bets on the board heading into the start of the new season.

Below, we will share the latest odds and insights into all four AFC South teams, along with our pick to win it.

AFC South Odds

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Click the odds in the table below and claim: $1,000 First Bet on Caesars OR $250 in Bonus Bets.

AFC South Predictions and Favorites to Win

Houston Texans (-105 at Caesars)

The preseason is almost over, and the Texans remain the favorite to win the AFC South. That is primarily due to their upgraded offense. While the addition of Stefon Diggs captured all of the headlines, we see the signing of Joe Mixon as the more significant one for Houston. 

As impressive as Stroud and the passing game was last season, the run game was a mess. Dameon Pierce once again showed that he can’t be a lead back in the NFL, allowing teams to focus on stopping the pass. That won’t be the case this season with Mixon in the backfield.

The biggest question on defense is how the unit will hold up without Denico Autry. The defensive lineman was a major signing for the team in the offseason but is serving a six-game suspension after testing positive for PEDs. 

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Jacksonville Jaguars (+300 at Caesars)

We aren’t ready to trust this Jags team yet, but we are excited to see how this offense will look. The unit was solid last season, but they made some significant upgrades by adding free-agent Gabe Davis and drafting Brian Thomas Jr. to their receiving corps. Davis gives the team a reliable number two behind Christian Kirk, while Thomas has the talent to make immediate contributions.

Jacksonville hopes that its new receivers will help Trevor Lawrence bounce back. The 24-year-old threw 14 interceptions last season, nearly double his total from the year before. Unfortunately for the Jags, seven of those picks came over the season's final four games, costing the team the division title and a playoff spot.

On the defensive side of the ball, we can’t wait to see what Josh Hines-Allen does after breaking out for 17.5 sacks and 17 TFLs. His sacks cost opponents 127 yards, the second-highest mark in the league. The 27-year-old had just seven sacks the year before, so we are eager to see if he can replicate last season’s numbers.

The team’s secondary will also get an upgrade later this season when veteran safety Tashaun Gipson Sr. returns from suspension.

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Indianapolis Colts (+320 at Caesars)

The Colts are an intriguing pick to win the AFC South this season. We saw the team rally after losing Anthony Richardson last year, and now they’ll have the promising young passer back on the field. The 22-year-old has been turning heads during the offseason, with many experts expecting big things from him and the Colts this season.

Richardson’s success will partly depend on running back Jonathan Taylor. The oft-injured back has not played 12+ games in two consecutive seasons. He shook off the rust last season to score seven touchdowns over his final six games. 

Taylor’s injuries are more of a concern this year, thanks to the departure of Zack Moss. The running back led the team in carries and was incredible, filling in for Taylor while he was out. With Moss gone, the team no longer has a safety net for a Taylor.

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Tennessee Titans (+1000 at Caesars)

The Titans enter the season as a longshot to win the division, but it would be a mistake to count them out completely. That is primarily because of second-year quarterback Will Levis. The Kentucky product flashed some major talent in 2023 despite being surrounded by a terrible Titans team.

Tennessee invested in their offense offense to support their new franchise quarterback. They improved their receiving corps by adding Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, replacing aging running back Derrick Henry with Tony Pollard. This unit is dripping with potential, and we can’t wait to see what Levis can do with it.

Unfortunately for the Titans, their defense could be in for a long season. Denico Autry is gone, leaving a weak unit without one of its best players. That means the offense will likely need to do the heavy lifting if the team wants a shot at an improbable division title.

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AFC South Pick - My Pick

Houston Texans -105 at Caesars Sportsbook

I don’t love taking a future bet at this price, but we believe this is one of the best teams in the league. A Sophomore slump from CJ Stroud is always a concern, but adding Diggs and Mixon will give him far more support than he had last year. We see the young passer thriving in the improved unit, leading to eye-popping numbers this year.

Autry’s absence is a bummer, but the defense still has newly acquired Danielle Hunter. The elite pass rusher will pair with 2023 rookie standouts Will Anderson Jr. and Henry To’oTo’o to lead the unit while they await Autry’s season debut.

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Previous AFC South Winners

How to Read Future NFL Odds

NFL futures odds work the same as any other bet. Each bet includes a number following the team or player, preceded by a plus or minus sign. 

A plus sign before the number usually indicates an underdog, which is common with futures bets. If the odds next to a team or player have a plus sign, that is the amount that you will win for every $100 you bet.

A minus sign usually indicates the favorite to win, though they are rarely seen for future bets. A minus sign in front of the odds means that is how much you need to bet to win $100.

For example, you bet $100 on the Texans +100 to win the AFC South. If they win the division, you will win $100 

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the AFC South

Are you ready to start betting on the AFC South but unsure where to start? If so, we have you covered with our sportsbook reviews. Below is a comparison between some of the industry’s best NFL betting sites.

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