NFL Week 11 Best Prop Bets: Can Josh Allen Hand the Chiefs Their First Loss?

The Bills will host the Chiefs on Sunday in what should be a highly competitive game. Our first player prop of the week revolves around Josh Allen, who has the skill set to post big numbers on Sunday. 

Buffalo is favored over Kansas City, so Allen is expected to perform for four quarters. We’re also backing Ja’Marr Chase to build off his massive performance one week ago and for Lamar Jackson to remain the NFL MVP favorite. 

FanDuel Sportsbook is one of the best NFL betting sites in the legal market, and the site has excellent lines for our three props. FanDuel gives new customers $150 in bonus bets if their first $5 wager wins on the platform.

Lamar Jackson Under 237.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel

Baltimore travels to Pittsburgh to take on a Steelers team that is 7-2, leading the AFC North. Pittsburgh is the best defensive team in the NFL, led by edge rusher T.J. Watt, who has 6.5 sacks in 2024. 

We expect the Steelers to pressure Jackson throughout this game, causing problems on the offensive side of the ball. Jackson should still perform and maintain his presence at the top of the MVP board. 

Nevertheless, Pittsburgh will be prepared for the quarterback’s passing game. We like Pittsburgh’s ability to stop the run, and they have a tremendous secondary that can limit Jackson through the air. 

Pittsburgh has playmakers all over its defense that will be used to try to neutralize Jackson. Jackson has yet to surpass 300 yards through the air against the worst defenses, so his numbers should be significantly lower against Pittsburgh. 

Derrick Henry has made his presence felt in Baltimore this season, taking away Jackson's passing attempts. In this game, we see Jackson scrambling out of the pocket and using his legs a lot to prevail. 

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Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (+120) at FanDuel 

Allen and the Bills are 7-2, leading the AFC East. Allen has the second shortest odds of winning MVP at +400 on FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Allen has four rushing touchdowns in 2024, making him one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL. He has 55 carries for 261 yards and is a matchup nightmare for any opposing defense. 

Kansas City has a great run defense, which is why we think Allen can dominate this game by scrambling out of the pocket and gaining yards on the ground. 

When Buffalo is in the red zone, they rely on Allen’s size and ability to run, and we think he will score. Buffalo doesn’t overthink its offense; they consistently give the ball to the All-Pro, which results in scores.

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Ja’Marr Chase Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel

Chase is coming off the best performance of the year from the receiver position, and we think he will dominate the Chargers on Sunday Night Football. Chase had 11 receptions for 264 yards with three touchdowns one week ago. 

Chase can beat any defense vertically down the field. He has always performed in prime-time games and has a favorable matchup against Los Angeles. In a game that the Bengals must win, Joe Burrow will look for Chase all night. 

Chase has 66 receptions for 981 yards along with ten touchdowns in 2024. He is a top five receiver that continues to dominate every year. 

The Bengals have struggled this season and currently risk missing the playoffs. Cincinnati has been at its best when Chase gets the ball due to his ability to run after the catch. 

The Chargers do an excellent job of getting to the quarterback, so Chase will likely be involved more in short-yardage gains. Los Angeles will decrease its blitz packages, leaving room for big plays from Burrow to Chase to cash this prop.

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