NFL Referee Assignments Week 4: Will Arizona Benefit From Alex Kemp Working This Weekend?

The NFL betting season brought up some stunning upsets in Week 3, making betting on this weekend’s slate of games more complicated. While this will challenge many bettors, we are gaining an edge by looking towards the officiating crews for each game. We’ll share the three that we expect to have the most significant impact, helping you bet with confidence in Week 4.

NFL Referee Assignments Week 4

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Alex Kemp on Seahawks vs. Cardinals - Odds Impact

Game Odds

• Spread: Seahawks -1.5 (-110) | Cardinals -1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Seahawks -120 | Cardinals +100

• Total: Over 43.5 (-110) | Under 43.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

The Seahawks enter this game as a slight favorite against the Cardinals. The team’s impressive play over the last two weeks has led many league experts to predict them as the NFC West champions this season. However, they will face a test as they visit one of their top rivals in a crucial division game early in the season.

The good news for Seahawks fans is that the team beat the Cardinals 30-18 in Arizona last season. While they lost Geno Smith, Sam Darnold has looked like a fantastic replacement. That will make them a popular bet on Sunday, but they will be facing an uphill battle before the game even begins.

Alex Kemp is considered to be one of the league’s better officials, but his crew has a reputation for favoring the home team. In 17 games called by Kemp and his crew last season, the home team won 82.35% of the time. That trend has continued early in 2025, including last week in Jacksonville.

Through the first three games of 2025, the home team is averaging an additional 19.35 yards more than their opponents. With a close game expected on Sunday, that trend could tip the scales in the Cards’ favor.

Click here to read our full Seahawks vs. Cardinals Prediction.

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Brad Allen on Vikings vs. Steelers - Odds Impact

• Spread: Vikings -2.5 (-120) | Steelers +2.5 (+100)

• Moneyline: Vikings -145 | Steelers +122 

• Total: Over 41 (-110) | Under 41 (-110)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Week 4 features an international game, as the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers play in Dublin on Sunday morning. The game will feature Aaron Rodgers facing off against an old rival, generating considerable excitement among fans. 

This game will be officiated by Brad Allen and his crew, who called a game in the UK last month. Not much stands out from this game, with just ten penalties called throughout. That lack of flags thrown is typical for Allen, who regularly finishes toward the bottom of the league in penalties called. Through two games this season, he has called the second-fewest penalties with 19. 

While offense can struggle to travel overseas, the lack of penalties could lead this game to surpass this low total.

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Shawn Smith on Browns vs. Lions - Odds Impact

• Spread: Browns +9.5 (-114) | Lions -9.5 (-107)

• Moneyline: Browns +350 | Lions -480

• Total: Over 44.5 (-108) | Under 44.5 (-114)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

The Browns and Lions are set to meet on Sunday. Both defenses have looked elite in 2025, though the Browns' lack of offense has led to a losing record. That has the Lions as a heavy favorite, but the Browns will have a familiar face calling the game.

Shawn Smith ranks around the middle of the pack in most statistical categories, but the Browns have seen him three times since 2022. They went 2-1 and didn’t have an advantage on penalties, but they do have familiarity with Smith and his crew.

By comparison, the Lions have seen Smith just once during that same span. That game took place in 2023, when the Lions secured a road win against the Chargers. However, that season was also a statistical anomaly for the veteran ref, who saw the home team win just 17.65% of the 17 games he called.

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