Vikings vs. Lions SNF Picks, Predictions & Player Props: Back the Vikings at a Key Number

• The Minnesota Vikings preseason win total was 7.5 juiced to the under

• The winner of the NFC North division title will also secure the top overall seed in the playoffs

• Minnesota’s front seven ranks top-10 in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards

After entering the year with a projected win total of 7.5 juiced to the under, the Minnesota Vikings are now just one win away from winning the NFC North division title. Not only do the Vikings have the opportunity to win the division, but they would also secure the first overall seed in the NFC standings as well. In order to bolster their chances of making a run to the Super Bowl, the Vikings must upset the Detroit Lions in Ford Field in the regular season finale.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Odds 

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions My Pick

• My Pick: Minnesota Vikings +3 (-115) at Caesars

A major reason for Minnesota’s success this season has stemmed from their defense as the Vikings currently rank top-5 in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Every bit of their production will be needed against the Lions as their high-powered offense continues to blitz through opposing defenses. Should Minnesota be able to slow down the Lions, then their offense will have the opportunity to set a scoring pace too fast for them to keep up with by picking apart their injury-riddled secondary’s gaps in coverage.

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Predictions 

Since Carlton Davis went down with an injury, the Lions have struggled to field another lockdown corner who can shadow the best opposing pass catcher. His absence will force Detroit to revert to more double teams on Justin Jefferson, leaving Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson in single coverage which increases the quality of Sam Darnold’s passing lanes.

On the other side of the field, Jahmyr Gibbs may be prone to regression as he faces off against one of the best run-stopping units in the league. Heading into the regular season finale, the Vikings' defense ranks top-10 in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. Even with a heavier workload after David Montgomery went down with an injury, expect Gibbs to struggle to clear the over on his rushing yardage prop.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Best Player Props

Sam Darnold Over 280.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Even with Justin Jefferson expected to be blanketed by the Lions safeties, Sam Darnold should have no issue with generating pass production by targeting Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson in single coverage. Especially when he is expected to play in a clean pocket for a majority of the contest as the Lions rank in the bottom ten in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. His pass catchers will also have more time to create separation from the Lions coverage which increases the quality of his passing lanes.

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Jordan Addison Anytime Touchdown (+130 at Caesars Sportsbook)

With Minnesota’s ground game still grading out poorly in Rush DVOA and EPA, expect the Vikings to continue to call the pass when in the red zone. That shades value in the anytime touchdown scorer market towards the Vikings pass catchers, specifically Jordan Addison as he has nearly matched Jefferson in red zone targets this season. With TJ Hockenson also expected to receive an uptick in targets, split a unit and put the other half on the Vikings' tight end to score as well.

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Jahmyr Gibbs Under 87.5 Rushing Yards (-113 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Even after being promoted to three down-back duties, the Lions' star running back Jahmyr Gibbs will struggle to generate rush production as he will be under relentless pressure in the trenches. The Vikings' front seven have excelled at stopping the run this season as they head into the contest ranked top-10 in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. Expect Gibbs to be used in more of a pass-catching role, eating away at his attempts and increasing the likelihood of him staying under the total.

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions How to Watch

• When: Sunday, January 5 at 8:20 PM ET

• Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

• Where to Watch: NBC

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Injuries

Minnesota Vikings Injuries

• RB Aaron Jones - Questionable

• SS Harrison Smith - Questionable

Detroit Lions Injuries

• MLB Jack Campbell - Questionable

• CB Amik Robertson - Questionable

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