The Steelers and Lions are tied for the best mark ATS at 8-2
The Titans only covered one time this season
Road favorites are 57.4 percent ATS thus far
There are less than two months until the end of the 2024 NFL regular season, and we’ve got the best against the spread for Week 12.
The Detroit Lions covered the largest line of last week with tremendous ease in their 52-6 demolition of the Jacksonville Jaguars, while the Buffalo Bills vindicated their status as home favorites by beating the Kansas City Chiefs and ending their undefeated streak.
As the calendar flips ahead, these are the best bets for NFL Week 12.
Okay, another .500 week isn’t the worst thing in the world. We’re in the green over the last couple of months but are still working to recover from a dismal start to the season.
Check back next week for more picks, and if our suspicions are correct, a winning record!
Last week’s record: 7-7 (50 percent)
2024 record: 79-84-3 (48.5 percent)
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Matchup | Pick |
---|---|
Steelers vs. Browns | Steelers -3.5 (-120) |
Vikings vs. Bears | Vikings -3.5 (-110) |
Lions vs. Colts | Colts +8 (-110) |
Patriots vs. Dolphins | Patriots +7 (-110) |
Buccaneers vs. Giants | Buccaneers -5 (-110) |
Cowboys vs. Commanders | Commanders -10 (-110) |
Chiefs vs. Panthers | Chiefs -11 (-110) |
Titans vs. Texans | Titans -8.5 (-110) |
Broncos vs. Raiders | Raiders +5.5 (-110) |
49ers vs. Packers | Packers -2.5 (-110) |
Cardinals vs. Seahawks | Cardinals -1 (-105) |
Eagles vs. Rams | Eagles -3 (-105) |
Ravens vs. Chargers | Chargers +3 (-115) |
Spread: Steelers -3.5 (-120), Browns +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Steelers -190, Browns +155
Total: Over/under 36.5 (-110/-110)
Like it or not, the Steelers are absolutely for real. They’re yet to lose with Russell Wilson under center and recorded wins against the Washington Commanders and Baltimore Ravens in back-to-back weeks. Russ isn’t posting mind-blowing stats, but he’s moving the ball well, while the defense is sixth in EPA per play over the last week.
Jameis Winston is playing better than Deshaun Watson ever did in Cleveland. The 10-year vet went for 395 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s loss to the New Orleans Saints but has the offense looking like more of a threat, though the defense has been abhorrent. Cleveland is only 3–7 ATS but has the benefit of playing a division rival at home on a short week.
The context of this matchup makes it much more compelling than the two teams do on paper. All signs point to the Steelers steamrolling the Browns, but the AFC North is known for beating up on itself, and Cleveland has the level of physicality needed to stand up to the Steelers. This game should be surprisingly close, but we’d still opt for the favorites.
Steelers vs. Browns pick: Steelers -3.5 (-120) at BetMGM
Spread: Vikings -3.5 (-110), Bears +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Vikings -190, Bears +155
Total: Over/under 39.5 (-110/-110)
Thought the Vikings lost their defense? Think again! They gave up 13 or fewer points in three straight games, and Sam Darnold is coming off of his best showing in close to a month (246 yards and two touchdowns against a solid Tennessee Titans defense). Minnesota is 4-1 on the road and should cause havoc on a rookie Caleb Williams.
Speaking of Williams, he was once again ponderous for most of last week’s matchup with the Green Bay Packers until he put together a phenomenal burst at the end of the fourth quarter. Unfortunately for him, a would-be game-winning field goal was blocked, and the Bears snatched defeat from the jaws of victory yet again. Their once-outstanding defense is becoming average, and Matt Eberflus hands out coaching errors like Halloween candy.
This is a horrible spot for the Bears, even as home 3.5-point underdogs in a division rivalry (just like the Browns). Brian Flores is known for bringing the heat against young QBs, and Williams has happy feet in the pocket. Chicago lost four straight games and is barreling toward a fifth.
Vikings vs. Bears pick: Vikings -3.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Spread: Lions -8 (-110), Colts +8 (-110)
Moneyline: Lions -400, Colts +310
Total: Over/under 50.5 (-110/-10)
It doesn’t matter if Jared Goff is throwing for 400 yards and four touchdowns or five interceptions, the Lions win football games. They haven’t lost since Week 2 and, as we say every week, are elite at every position group and spot on the coaching roster. What’s even scarier is that they rank fifth in points per game allowed (17.7) and have the highest-scoring offense in football.
Anthony Richardson had the best game of his career last week as he returned to the lineup to lead a 28-27 road win against the New York Jets, during which he racked up 304 total yards, three touchdowns, and the game-winning drive. Indy’s defense has improved as the year went on and is 13th in success rate, which is enough to remain competitive in games.
The Colts and Lions are a combined 16-5 against the spread. There’s no doubt that the Lions are an outstanding team and the Super Bowl favorites (per sportsbook odds), but the Colts under Shane Steichen regularly hang around in losses and win games they shouldn’t. Richardson likely won’t play like he did last week, but he and the Colts have enough to cover this line.
Lions vs. Colts pick: Colts +8 (-110) at BetMGM
Spread: Patriots +7 (-110), Dolphins -7 (-110)
Moneyline: Patriots +280, Dolphins -350
Total: Over/under 46 (-110/-110)
The Patriots have their QB of the future in Drake Maye, but he’s still raw and learning when and when not to try certain passes. NE’s defense has been on a downslide since the midpoint of the season, but Maye is a legitimate big-play-maker and recorded multi-touchdown games in half of his starts.
The Dolphins won back-to-back games and scored at least 23 in four straight games since Tua Tagovailoa’s return to action. They rank third in offensive EPA per play during those four games, which is a welcome sign that their offense is back and could potentially help spur the team to a playoff push. They already beat the Patriots with Tyler Huntley under center, though the Pats started Jacoby Brissett in that 15-10 win for the Fins.
The Pats covered in three of their last four and look like a much more competent and cohesive unit with their rookie QB under center. However, New England’s defense, while not overwhelming, is at least on par with Miami’s, which is enough reason to believe they can cover the line.
Patriots vs. Dolphins pick: Patriots +7 (-110) at BetMGM
Spread: Buccaneers -5 (-110), Giants +5 (-110)
Moneyline: Buccaneers -250, Giants +190
Total: Over/under 42 (-110/-110)
Baker Mayfield is playing with nothing to lose (aside from more receivers) and has played gutsy football despite the Buccaneers’ four-game losing streak. Don’t be fooled, however, as they played the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, and 49ers during that stretch, and are coming off of a bye. Tampa’s passing defense is horrible, but luckily, it shouldn’t have to worry about that too much in this matchup.
Tommy DeVito madness took over the NFL last season…but just like your favorite movie, the sequel is rarely better than the original. The Giants were outscored by 6.6 points per game (26th) and now get a team with a potent offense that is well-rested after a bye week. They’ll need their great pass-rush to step up big, otherwise it’s tough to see them making this competitive.
Mayfield is clearly the best player in this matchup, and Tampa’s high-powered offense (seventh in EPA per play) should totally overwhelm DeVito and the Giants’ D. We won’t waste too many words here, this is our favorite play of the week.
Buccaneers vs. Giants pick: Buccaneers -5 (-110) at BetMGM
Spread: Cowboys +10 (-110), Commanders -10 (-110)
Moneyline: Cowboys +400, Commanders -550
Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)
The Cowboys’ insistence on playing Cooper Rush instead of Trey Lance, who they traded a draft pick to acquire, is baffling. Rush is not the short or long-term future of the franchise, whereas Lance could either play himself into a future starting job or continue to be awful and improve the team’s draft position. Regardless, Dallas has the third-least-efficient defense in football, can’t run, and doesn’t have a starting-level QB under center.
The Commanders went from 7-2 to 7-4 in just four days and are now looking to get back into the win column after 10 days off. Dan Quinn insisted that Jayden Daniels is healthy despite his accuracy plummeting immediately after he suffered a rib injury, while the decline in overall effectiveness of the offense has been replaced by continued improvement on the defensive side of the ball. That should go to another level if Marshon Lattimore can make his D.C. debut.
The Commanders don’t search for blowouts, but three of their seven wins were by double-digits. They haven’t been favored by this much in a long time and should be able to win without much issue, and we wouldn’t put it past them to cover as they unleash their anger against a hated opponent.
Cowboys vs. Commanders pick: Commanders -10 (-110) at BetMGM
Spread: Chiefs -11 (-110), Panthers +11(-110)
Moneyline: Chiefs -650, Panthers +450
Total: Over/under 42.5 (-110/-110)
Kansas City is no longer in pursuit of perfection following last week’s loss to the Bills, the team’s first of the season. Patrick Mahomes threw another two interceptions in the loss, while the defense had no answers for Josh Allen (and has been getting worse as the season wears on). That said, they can finally play somewhat carefree and set their sights on their ultimate goal of winning the NFL’s first Super Bowl three-peat.
Bryce Young is looking better than he has at any point in his professional career, and Chuba Hubbard has quietly been one of the best running backs in the league. Carolina’s defense, well, it plays football. The team is 3-7 against the spread but covered in each of its last two, suggesting a potential turning of the tides.
There’s nobody on planet Earth who can question which team is the better of the two. The question is if Kansas City will be lethargic or energized by the loss, and if Young will continue his upward trajectory. Unfortunately for Charlotte natives, we just can’t bring ourselves to bet on the Panthers against the back-to-back Super Bowl champs.
Chiefs vs. Panthers pick: Chiefs -11 (-110) at BetMGM
Spread: Titans +8.5 (-110), Texans -8.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Titans +320, Texans -400
Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)
Tennessee’s offense is remarkably bad. They lose an average of .132 points per play just by snapping the ball according to net EPA per play and are horrible through the air and on the ground. Their defense is actually solid, but they’re almost always up against the wall and don’t have many opportunities to make impactful plays.
C.J. Stroud is experiencing the infamous sophomore slump, as evidenced by his throwing two touchdowns and three interceptions in his last five games. Luckily for him, the Texans allow the lowest completion percentage in football and take the ball away 1.8 times per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Joe Mixon has also been exceptional whenever healthy.
The Titans have only covered one time this entire season, while the Texans are 5-5-1 ATS. Stroud is not playing anywhere near his best, but it’s not a stretch to imagine Houston’s disruptive defense causing issues for the turnover-prone Will Levis.
Titans vs. Texans pick: Titans -8.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Spread: Broncos -5.5 (-110), Raiders +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Broncos -250, Raiders +195
Total: Over/under 41 (-110/-110)
Nobody seems to have a beat on Bo Nix and if he’s good, bad, a diamond in the rough, or a system quarterback. He’s only 21st in QBR and 26th in adjusted EPA per play, but he threw for 307 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-6 rout of the Falcons last week. Denver also has a top-three defense in football and beat the Raiders 34-18 earlier in the campaign.
Vegas’ offense (excluding Brock Bowers) is tough to watch. They have the worst rushing attack in the league, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, lost six straight games, and only scored more than 20 points one time during that stretch. Oh, and their defense is 29th in points allowed per game (28.5) and 31st in yards allowed per point.
Winning division rivalries on the road is tough, especially as a rookie quarterback. Vegas has shown no signs of life, however, which is why the line could arguably be even higher than it is. All of that said, we’d look at the Raiders here in a low-scoring game due to them having film on Nix from their earlier matchup and because Sean Payton typically employs a high-floor, low-ceiling approach.
Broncos vs. Raiders pick: Raiders +5.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Spread: 49ers +2.5 (-110), Packers -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: 49ers +115, Packers -140
Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)
Arguably the best game of the week, the 5-5 49ers are in last place in the NFC West and need a win to stay alive for the playoffs. Christian McCaffrey has not made much of a difference since he returned to the field, while Brock Purdy has four touchdowns and four interceptions in his last four games. San Fran’s defense also gave up 20+ points in four straight games and isn’t playing at its usual level anywhere on the field.
Jordan Love’s egregious interception issue is a glaring problem for a team that otherwise has a potent offense and its best defense in years. In many ways, their ability to mix in play-action and deep passes with an efficient running game resembles San Francisco of years past, while the defense ranks 10th in points allowed per game (21.3). They also get to play in what is expected to be 46-degree weather, well below what the Niners are used to in the Bay Area.
All good things have to come to an end. We’re not saying that a loss this weekend will doom the Niners this season and beyond, but it would be a huge blow for a team that is already in last place in its division. And simply put, the Packers are the better team in a more favorable situation.
49ers vs. Packers pick: Packers -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Spread: Cardinals -1 (-105), Seahawks +1 (-115)
Moneyline: Cardinals -110, Seahawks -110
Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)
Building off our NFC West commentary, the Cardinals are 6-4 and lead all teams in the division by a game. Jonathan Gannon has Kyler Murray playing the best football of his career and a running game that averaged the fifth-most yards per game (149.4). They still have a bottom-10 defense, but that’s largely due to their personnel as opposed to systemic issues.
The Seattle offense is extremely frustrating. They move the ball up and down the field and make tons of big plays, but they’re only 19th in yards per point, meaning their efficiency is well below their raw production. Mike MacDonald’s defensive mindset also hasn’t taken hold yet as the team ranks 21st in points per game allowed (23.8).
Seattle is rolling after a huge fourth-quarter comeback win against the Niners last week. But if there’s one thing we’ve come to expect with the Seahawks, it’s for them to constantly let themselves down after working their way into favorable positions. Arizona got last week off to prepare for the matchup and should be better for it.
Cardinals vs. Seahawks pick: Cardinals -1 (-105) at BetMGM
Spread: Eagles -3 (-105), Rams +3 (-115)
Moneyline: Eagles -155, Rams +125
Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)
No team in the NFL is hotter than the Eagles, who won six straight games and got 10 days of rest between their matchup with the Commanders on TNF in Week 11 and the Rams on SNF in Week 12. Saquon Barkley is a devastating force against every defense in the NFL, while Philly’s defense leads the entire league by a wide margin in EPA per play during their winning streak.
Matthew Stafford can still be brilliant when he has his weapons around him, as proven by his four-touchdown showing in last weekend’s win against the Pats. Jared Verse has also proven to be an incredible defensive weapon, but the defense overall is mediocre at best.
This has the makings of a high-scoring affair. While playing at home is usually an advantage, the Rams are only 3-2 in their building and are known for not having overwhelming fan support. The Eagles are rolling on both ends, will be more rested, and simply have a better roster.
Eagles vs. Rams pick: Eagles -3 (-105) at BetMGM
Spread: Ravens -3 (-105), Chargers +3 (-115)
Moneyline: Ravens -155, Chargers +130
Total: Over/under 50.5 (-120/-110)
As it turns out, Lamar Jackson is the best regular-season player in the world until he faces the Pittsburgh Steelers. He’s terrorized other great defenses, but he’s getting the Chargers’ best-in-the-league D in a Monday Night special that will test the true resolve of this squad. Baltimore defends the heck out of the run but leads the league in penalties and is terrible in the secondary.
Justin Herbert was incredible in the first half of last week’s win against the Bengals, while the defense put Cincy behind the 8 ball and came through in the final moments of the fourth quarter. Jim Harbaugh leverages his team’s physicality and forces opponents to execute to perfection on offense in order to move down the field, which is why his team holds opponents to a league-best 21.9 yards per point scored.
This is a brutal matchup for both teams. Baltimore needs to stop abandoning the run in high-profile matchups, while Herbert can really make his way into the NFL MVP conversation with a great performance and a win. We’re not guaranteeing an upset, but we’d look at getting the Chargers with the points.
Ravens vs. Chargers pick: Chargers +3 (-115) at BetMGM
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