After getting shut out by the lowly Montreal Canadiens, the Edmonton Oilers managed to get back up off the mat and routed the Ottawa Senators to the tune of 5-2. Now back at home and well rested, the Oilers host the Minnesota Wild in what should be a defensive slugfest. Luckily for Edmonton, their defense should have no issue with neutralizing the Wild offense as Minnesota’s front line struggles to generate high quality Shots on Goal.
While that takes place, the New York Rangers look to continue to climb up the Metropolitan division standings by securing their fourth win in a row in a favorable matchup against the Calgary Flames. Regression hit the Flames hard as of late as Calgary enters the contest ranked well below league average in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
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Even though the Minnesota Wild are 12-3-3 and just 5 points back from the Winnipeg Jets for first place in the Central division standings, their success has not stemmed from their offense as their front line currently ranks 25th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations and 32nd in 5-on-5 Play. As of writing, only Hart Memorial Trophy contender Kirill Kaprizov averages more than 0.50 Expected Goals per game.
Against the Oilers, the Wild offense will continue to struggle with generating offensive production as the Oilers back line currently ranks seventh overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. The Oilers are also expected to roll out their backup goalie Calvin Pickard who has performed far better than their starting goaltender Stuart Skinner as he averages just 2.44 Goals Against per game to Skinners 3.18. Should Skinner get the starting nod, then pass on this prop.
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Even as the focal point of Minnesota’s offense, Kaprizov will struggle to sustain his high level of play against an Oilers back line who excels at smothering opposing shot attempts. Especially when the Oilers defense gets the benefit of being able to shade their coverage towards the star forward as his surrounding cast around him is a sizable step down in production. Other than his right wing Matt Boldy, no one else on the Wild averages more than three Shots on Goal per game.
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Staying on the course of backing Stanley Cup contenders, we also target the New York Rangers to beat the Calgary Flames by a sizable margin. The Rangers catch the Flames at the right time as Calgary is in the midst of a harsh regression, entering the contest ranked below league average in Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations after residing in the top half of the board in both advanced metrics earlier in the year.
Calgary’s inability to generate high quality Shots on Goal is key for the Rangers chances of covering the puck line as New York still struggles to defend their net as their low mark in Expected Goals Against indicates. Fortunately for the Rangers, Vezina Trophy contender Igor Shesterkin has been able to mask their low level of defensive production as the star goaltender is averaging just 2.80 Goals Against per game while generating a .911 Save Percentage.
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As for who will do the scoring for the Rangers offense, Chris Kreider continues to be a consistent source of offensive production for their top line as he leads the team in Expected Goals while averaging nearly three Shots on Goal per game. Kreider also gets the benefit of playing alongside Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox who both excel at facilitating. With the Flames back line struggling to stay in front of their net, expect another high mark in Expected Goals from the Rangers left wing.
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