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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning - Odds and Predictions

Written by: Ryan Bristlon
Updated October 14, 2022
7 min read

How to Watch

Where: Amalie Arena – Tampa Bay, FL.

When: Wednesday, October 23, 8PM EST

How (TV/Radio): NBC Sports | WFAN

Looking for NHL future predictions? Then check out our favorites to win the 2020 Stanley Cup!

Pittsburgh Penguins (Away)

Head Coach: Mike Sullivan{All-Time 250-151-15-57 PIT, BOS}

When the news broke that star forward Evgeni Malkin would be out long-term, many thought the Penguins would struggle. However, captain Sidney Crosby has led the way as Pittsburgh has started the season with a 6-3 record, placing them second in the Metropolitan division and fourth in the Eastern conference.


The Pittsburgh Penguins have scored the eighth-most goals in the league, combining, as a team, for 32 tallies – 23 of them at even strength. They average a total of 3.56 goals per game, just edging out Tampa Bay’s average per game of 3.5. The team averages over 32 shots per game and has taken the 12th-most shots in the league overall. The Penguins have the eighth-best shooting percentage in the league with an even 11 percent. However, they have struggled on the faceoff and their puck possession as their faceoff win percentage sits barely above .500 with a 50.9 percent success rate in the circle.Their power play also lacks as they rank 18th in the league with a power play percentage of only 18.8.


Pittsburgh has been, mostly, finding success on the blue line. There is room for improvement, but the season is young. It should also be mentioned that Pittsburgh has been suffering with injuries to their defensive core as well as their offense and that has led to a few inconsistencies in their play. The Penguins have allowed the 11th-fewest goals against, with a combined goals against total of just 23. The team allows an average of only 29.2 shots against per game, the fifth-lowest average in the NHL. The Penguins penalty killing unit has also been significantly more successful than that of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Pittsburgh has a penalty kill percentage of 81 percent – good for 14th in the league.


It is expected that the Pittsburgh Penguins will actually be starting backup goaltender Tristan Jarryin this matchup against the offensive Tampa Bay Lightning. Jarry has gone 1-1 so far this season, putting together a goals against average of 1.51 and a .941 save percentage. This will be a big test for the young netminder.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Home)

Head Coach: Jon Cooper{All-Time 309-162-45 TBL}

The Tampa Bay Lightning entered this season as the favourites to win the Stanley Cup but they haven’t gotten off to the start that they were hoping to. With the core of their lineup locked dup to new deals, the Lightning have struggled, going just 4-3-1 this season which includes a loss to the league’s worst team – the Ottawa Senators.


It’s safe to say that a lot more people expected the Tampa Bay Lightning to come out guns blazing this season. Thus far, that hasn’t been the case. Although they are still having some offensive success, the Lightning have scored only 28 goals combined this season – good for only 11th-overall. The team also ranks 11th-overall when it comes to the power play. The Lightning have only a 23.81 success rate on the power play. Although that’s not terrible, it is shocking considering that with a man advantage, a team as talented as the Lightning can’t put more together when on the power play. The team averages only 29.5 shots per game and has only a 51 percent success rate in the faceoff circle. Their one advantage over Pittsburgh and a rookie goalie is their shooting percentage. Although they haven’t broken the 30-shot mark many times this year, the Tampa Bay Lightning still find a way to make their shots count. They have an 11.9 shooting percentage – good enough for fourth in the league.


Defensively, this Tampa Bay Lightning team looks like even less than a shadow of their former selves. The Tampa Bay Lightning rank below 20th in every major defensive stat so far this season. The team allows an average of 3.38 goals per game – the 21st-worst average in the league. They allow an average of 33.3 shots against per game – the 25th-worst in the league. They average the 6th-most penalty minutes per game and have only a 70 percent success rate when killing those penalty minutes off – the fourth-worst percentage in the entire NHL this season. Even more unfortunate for the Lightning is that top penalty killer Cedric Paquette has been added to the list of Tampa Bay’s injured players.


It is expected that starting goaltender, and last year’s Vezina winner, Andrei Vasilevskiy will get the nod in net for the Lightning Wednesday night. So far this season Vasilevskiy has gone 4-2 with a goals against average of 3.15 and a save percentage of only .899.

These two teams last went head-to-head last season on February 9 in a rather high scoring affair that saw the Tampa Bay Lightning defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins with a final score of 5-4.

What’s at Stake?

Both are dominant, Stanley Cup contending teams. With both teams coming off losses heading into Wednesday night’s matchup, a victory here is a chance for either team to build up momentum. A win for the Penguins will further establish them as one of the best depth teams in the league as they continue to win with whomever is at their disposal. A win for the Lightning will show that this team is still capable of defeating top-tier talent and that there is plenty of time to turn their season around.

Questions to Answer

How will the Tampa Bay Lightning’s penalty kill unit perform without Cedri Paquette on the ice? Paquette was getting some of the top minutes of the team’s penalty kill before falling to injury earlier in the week.

How will the young Pittsburgh netminder Tristan Jarry fare against a Tampa Bay Lightning team that consists of such impressive offensive talents such as Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov?

Coming off of a 6-2 loss to the Colorado Avalanche last Saturday, how will the Lightning perform after such a dominant loss and not having played a game in the last three days?

Pittsburgh Penguins Injury Report

F Evgeni Malkin – DL (lower-body)

D Zach Trotman – DL (groin)

D Brian Dumoulin – DL (lower-body)

F Alex Galchenyuk – DL (lower-body)

F Nick Bjugstad – DL (lower-body)

F Bryan Rust – DL (hand)

F Jared McCann – day-to-day (hand)

Tampa Bay Lightning Injury Report

F Cedric Paquette – DL (arm)

D Daniel Walcott – IR/NR (shoulder)

Current Odds Listed for Penguins vs Lightning

Check out the latest odds here, provided by New Jersey sportsbooks: bet365 NJ, Unibet and Draftkings.

Money Line:

Sportsbook PIT Penguins TB Lightning
bet365 NJ +170 -200
DraftKings +170 -132
Unibet NJ +165 -205

Puck Line:

Sportsbook PIT Penguins +1.5 TB Lightning -1.5
bet365 NJ -135 +115
DraftKings +108 +130

Total Goals:

Sportsbook Over 6.5 Under 6.5
bet365 NJ -110 -110
DraftKings -157 +130
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Ryan Bristlon

433 Articles

Ryan Bristlon is a Canadian writer currently residing in Hamilton, Ontario. He studied print and broadcast journalism at Humber College and has been a lifelong fan of the sport of hockey and the NHL.

Email: [email protected]

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