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Thursday Night Football: Bears vs. Commanders Betting Picks - Ride the Line Episode #65

Written by: Grant Mitchell
Published October 4, 2023
5 min read

A new episode of Ride the Line with Grant Mitchell and Tanner Kern is now live on all WSN platforms!

Thursday Night Football Betting Picks

The boys went 4-0 with their picks on Monday Night Football and are back to deliver their favorite plays for Bears vs. Commanders on TNF!

Grant is picking against his hometown team and going with the Bears at +6. That goes against recent precedent, which shows that teams that are 0-4 only cover the spread 40% of the time since 2005. 

The Bears just turned in their best performance of the season, albeit in a loss to the Denver Broncos. They had a fourth-quarter lead, while the Commanders gave up 30+ points for the third week running.

There’s been heavy movement in favor of the Bears thus far. The line opened at seven or 7.5 points on most major sportsbooks and is down to Bears +5.5 everywhere except for one book, which still has them at +6. If it drops below that critical number as well, Grant would no longer advise taking them on the spread.

Washington’s defensive woes are part of why Tanner is looking at a different market and is taking the over of 44.5 points. The Bears have given up the second-most points in the league (34.3 per game), and the Commanders’ defense failed to live up to the on-paper potential it possesses.

Chicago is also the only team that is 4-0 on the over thus far. Washington is only 2-2 but has an offense that can score points in a hurry, just as Sam Howell proved during an impressive game-tying drive as time expired last weekend.

Bears vs. Commanders Player Props

Tanner thinks this could end up being a prop game more than one for the major markets. His favorite pick is Khalil Herbert over 44.5 rushing yards coming off a week in which he carried the rock 18 times for 103 yards and averaged 5.7 yards per carry.

The Commanders’ rush defense is the 21st-graded unit in the league and has consistently been friendly to opposing backs. Herbert had to deal with splitting carries with rookie Roschon Johnson early in the year but seems to have monopolized the backfield and is in line for a strong outing.

Grant is looking at Justin Fields over 247.5 passing+rushing yards as his favorite play of the day. Fields threw for 335 yards and ran for 25 yards last week and has hit the over in two of four games. The Commanders’ defense, on top of being poor against the run, also ranks 20th in pass defense and is heavily reliant on its front-seven to get home and disrupt the pocket.

Both co-hosts are also fans of Brian Robinson Jr. as an anytime touchdown scorer. The second-year Alabama man has scored in three of four games, including once last week, and would have scored twice had he not fumbled on the goal line while shedding a defender.

Robinson Jr. has been utilized in a variety of ways and is a key figure near the goal line. He’s both caught and run for touchdowns this season and gets to tee off against a Bears defense that, as we mentioned, has allowed the second-most points thus far.

Before the boys headed out, Tanner cooked up a same-game parlay for +312 odds. The parlay included the Commanders’ moneyline, Herbert 25+ rushing yards, over 40.5 total points, and Robinson Jr. as an anytime TD scorer.

Check back throughout the week for more episodes of Ride the Line and more NFL betting picks! 

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Grant Mitchell

528 Articles

Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.

In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.

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