False Moves in Sports Betting With SuperBook’s Jay Kornegay


Welcome to episode 108 of Wise Kracks! Joining us this week is a veteran of the show and a personality in the sportsbook scene. We also discuss the Tom Brady training camp drama, a wild 80-game suspension in MLB, sports wagering on the rise, and UFC 278. Here we go!

Your hosts Bill Krackomberger and Jon Orlando attempt to dissect the reason behind Tom Brady missing 10 days of training camp before his ‘return’ season to the National Football League. How will this change bet behavior towards the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

The guys also break down a very, very long suspension that had just been issued to Fernando Tatis Jr., shortstop and outfielder for the San Diego Padres. Will his recklessness off the field be a detriment to his career and his team?

The American Gaming Association’s latest Commercial Gaming Revenue Tracker report shows that second-quarter sports wagering has seen a 58.7% increase over the same period in 2021. Jon wants to know, how much of that is lost in parlays?

UFC 278 is upon us and fight fans are in for a treat with a stacked card featuring Paulo Costa vs Luke Rockhold and Kamaru Usman vs Leon Edwards. Who do the guys have down to win?

On the show this week is returning guest Jay Kornegay of SuperBook at Westgate LV Resort & Casino. He’s here to discuss the excitement of running a sportsbook, moving lines, and dissecting ‘false’ moves. All this and more on this week’s Wise Kracks!

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Brady Missing 10 Days of Training Camp: Buccaneers Still A Sure Bet?

After announcing his retirement at the end of the 2021-22 NFL season, superstar quarterback Tom Brady was quick to take that back and ‘unretire’ to return to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With the 2022-23 season approaching, Brady has caught Bucs’ fans off-guard by missing 10 days of training camp, which insiders are claiming is due to “family commitment”.

“No other player could get away with that,” exclaims Jon, “What is it, his kid’s first day of school or something?” The guys crack a few jokes about how it could be a potential trade-off with his supermodel wife Gisele Bündchen for how much time football takes up in his life. “My sister is getting married on Sunday, you can’t play that day,” jokes Bill, who luckily doesn’t go for a Bündchen accent.

In all seriousness, Jon notes that “it’s a big deal.”  However, Bill knows that with Tom being the seasoned pro that he is, this won’t affect his game, and therefore shouldn’t change how people bet on the Bucs.

Even with the week one game against the Dallas Cowboys, Jon knows deep down, as a Cowboys fan, that missing 10 days of training camp won’t change much for Brady to claim victory over Dallas.

80-Game Suspension Issued to San Diego Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. Over Fungus Treatment?

In one of the more perplexing suspension stories in sports as of late, MLB has suspended shortstop and outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres for 80 games over performance-enhancing drugs.

Where it becomes perplexing is when Fernando’s dad, Fernando Tatis, claims it was from taking medicine to treat fungus after getting a haircut. He went on to make a bold statement, “This is a catastrophe… not just for Jr., but for all of baseball. There are millions of fans who are gonna stop watching baseball now.”

Bill and Jon give credit where it’s due; when Tatis was on the St. Louis Cardinals in 1999, he hit two grand slams in the same inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers, something that had never been accomplished before or since. However, this take is laughable to the guys, “If you take out Jr. there are still what, 400 Dominicans to cheer for?”

However they may joke and how strange the situation may be, Jon empathizes with Tatis Jr. and the pressure he faces in MLB.

You’re coming off an injury, with a $300M contract, I kind of get it… there’s lots of pressure on you to perform, he might not be at peak level… he might be trying to get an edge.

With that said, Bill also acknowledges his care-free off-field decisions, including one instance that led to a motorcycle injury. “What are they thinking?” says Bill, “Especially with a $300M contract.”

SuperBook’s Jay Kornegay On the Ups and Downs of Running a Sportsbook

Joining the guys this week is returning guest Jay Kornegay of SuperBook at Westgate LV Resort & Casino. With SuperBook becoming an increasingly popular sportsbook, especially for NFL fans, Jay shares his excitement for upcoming contests and developments.

As someone deep in the world of sportsbooks and wagering, Bill wants to know how sportsbooks adjust lines for when new information surrounding a certain bet is received either by a bettor or themselves. “There’s all this information out there, and sometimes the educated players get that information before we do, or vice-versa, and we adjust accordingly,” explains Jay, “It’s fair game.”

Running a sportsbook isn’t all fun and games for Jay, “Volatility drives most senior executives nuts… it can drive us nuts.” For Jay, success with a sportsbook is better seen by taking a long road approach, knowing that everything will work out in the end. It’s better to look at the bigger picture, especially with the NFL season.

I always harp about taking a larger sample over a small sample… it will cause heartburn to look at a smaller sample.

After Jay catches Bill and Jon up on all the exciting developments happening with SuperBook, Bill opted to share a story of a recent wagering venture. “I’m sick and tired of seeing preseason stuff move so fast,” states Bill, “I bet the wrong way at a sportsbook, I bet over 41 on the Baltimore (Ravens) and Arizona (Cardinals) preseason game.”

When Bill made that bet, the entire market moved, but then Bill moved the right way. What he wants to know is, “What’s your opinion on someone moving the wrong way, setting up the screen, then moving the right way?” For Jay, he knows it’s part of the game, and there’s a phrase to match that method, “We try to dissect those moves… we call them false moves.” Bill chimes in, “It’s a cat and mouse game.”

As much as it’s part of the game, Jay’s team works hard to see through these moves that bettors make to adjust accordingly, “Sometimes, guys can get a reputation… we try to see through that.” When it comes down to seeing the true intention behind ‘false’ bets, Jay says it comes down to not moving the line too aggressively. “Information is valuable if you’re willing to put their ego aside,” concludes Jon.

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Catch Wise Kracks Thursday on YouTube

Welcome to Wise Kracks, the show that keeps you in the know on all things betting, pop culture, tips & more. Your hosts Jon Orlando and Bill Krackomberger dive into the NHL, NBA, MLB, & the NFL, while finding a few laughs along the way.

New guests every week bring a fresh look into the world of sports and entertainment. Wise Kracks has got your back, with Bill bringing you the tips and tricks to become a seasoned bettor. Tune into the WSN YouTube channel every Thursday for a new episode of Wise Kracks!

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AUTHOR

Bill Krackomberger

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Billy “Krackman” Krackomberger has made his living as a professional sports gambler for nearly three decades. You have seen him on ESPN, Gaming Today, and SiriusXM. His connections in the sports gambling industry run all the way to the top. His bets move the lines and regularly have him banned from books for being too sharp. Email: [email protected]

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