ATP MercedesCup Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks

Written by: Andy Schooler
Updated October 14, 2022
6 min read
Atp Mercedescup
  • Brown can roll back the years
  • Humbert the wrong underdog
  • Big servers to conjure up tie-break

ATP MercedesCup Picks

Dustin Brown to beat Nikoloz Basilashvili at +140 at BetMGM

Ugo Humbert to beat Marton Fucsovics at -108 at bet365

First-set tie-break in Alexei Popyrin vs Feliciano Lopez at +230 at William Hill

Jordan Thompson to win ATP Stuttgart at +5000 at William Hill

How to Watch ATP MercedesCup

ATP Stuttgart Information
What ATP MercedesCup
Location Stuttgart, Germany
Time Tuesday, June 8 to Sunday, June 13
How to Watch Tennis Channel

Dustin Brown vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

Odds taken from William Hill. Click on the links in the table below to head to the sportsbook, sign-up, and place your bet!

Player Odds
Dustin Brown +140
Nikoloz Basilashvili -159

Ah, Dustin Brown. He of the Wimbledon victory over Rafael Nadal.

Yes, it’s easy to get nostalgic about one of the game’s great entertainers but what that 2015 success reminds us is that he’s a grasscourt natural – a player prepared to serve and volley regularly, attack the net when he can, and come up with those famous spectacular dives.

The German-made the quarter-finals the last time this event was played in 2019, beating top seed Alex Zverev along the way.

He is no longer playing singles at the top-level – admittedly that’s a big concern – but he’s got a wild card in Stuttgart this week where I very much doubt the mercurial Nikoloz Basilashvili will be relishing facing him.

Basilashvili is not a fan of the grass having won only six of his 18 tour-level matches on this surface and I can see him getting frustrated with both the lush courts and his opponent’s game style.

Despite the obvious risk, a small play on Brown at +140 looks worthwhile.

Ugo Humbert vs Marton Fucsovics

Player Odds
Ugo Humbert -108
Marton Fucsovics -115

Odds from bet365. Get up to $100 in FREE credits at bet365 NJ today or check out more offers and promo codes for the best online sportsbooks.

Humbert is another player whose game is very much suited to the grass and I’m surprised to see him as the underdog in this match-up.

The prices are probably due to the fact he’s endured a miserable few months, largely on the clay, but having the green stuff back under his feet could well be the factor that kick-starts the talented Frenchman back towards his best.

During the previous grasscourt season in 2019, Humbert made the last 16 at Wimbledon and the semi-finals in Newport with his attacking tennis and swinging left-handed serve proving strong weapons on the surface.

Here he faces another player who has struggled to adapt his game to the grass – Fucsovics is 4-9 at tour-level on the surface with only two of the wins coming against top-100 players.

In short, Humbert looks decent value in the market here at -108.

Alexei Popyrin vs Feliciano Lopez

Odds taken from William Hill. Click on the links in the table below to head to the sportsbook, sign-up, and place your bet!

Player Odds
Alexei Popyrin -136
Feliciano Lopez +110

This looks an interesting battle on Wednesday.

Lopez knows how to play on grass and will have been looking forward to this time of year for a while. His terrific lefty serves and deft volleys powered him towards the Queen’s Club in both 2017 and 2019.

He’s also been to the final here before, in 2017. But the Spaniard has barely won a match this season and it might be asking a lot for him to simply flick the grass switch up to 10 for a contest that has an awkward look about it.

Popyrin has enjoyed a decent season to date, winning his maiden ATP Tour title in Singapore, a week when conditions were good for his strong serve.

Like most Aussies, he’s no mug when coming forward and while he’s had little experience on the grass at this level, he has worked with former Wimbledon champion Pat Cash to improve on this surface and says he feels his game is well suited to it. I’m struggling to pick a winner but one bet I do like the look of is the first-set tie-break at +230.

Serve should dominate this clash, especially with the courts still very green.

Lopez has played 13 previous matches in Stuttgart and five have produced a first-set tie-break. He’s held serve in 93% of his games, while breaking only 15% of the time.

As for Popyrin, the strength of his serve is reflected by the fact that nine of his last 12 matches have featured a breaker – quite a record given they’ve all been played on clay.

The pair also produced a tie-break when they met in Miami earlier this season, albeit it came in the second set on that occasion. To me, +230 looks more than fair.

Best Outright Pick

We all like a big price, right?

Well, Jordan Thompson is surely too big at +5000 to win in Stuttgart this week.

With everyone coming in fresh off the clay, the Australian is one of few who should take to the grass well.

He made the final in Den Bosch during the last grasscourt swing in 2019, while he also reached the semi-finals in Antalya that year.

Den Bosch was his first grass event of the season, while the fact he also made the Challenger final in Surbiton in his first grass tournament of 2017 shows how he’s capable of adapting.

He’s in a section of the draw which includes his fellow Aussie, Alex de Minaur, but the fourth seed was beaten by Thompson in Den Bosch in 2019 – their only previous meeting on grass.

Leading seeds Denis Shapovalov (0-2 in Stuttgart and just back from a shoulder injury) and Hubert Hurkacz (lost his last four and recently laid low by an “infection”) look worth taking on and Thompson can capitalize at attractive odds.

Image for Andy Schooler

Andy Schooler

Tennis Betting Analyst

Betting Picks
Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.
Nationality: British
Education: N/A
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