ATP Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks

ATP Rolex Monte Carlo

  • Garin can show clay expertise
  • Fabbiano a big price for Hurkacz upset
  • Djokovic vulnerable to super Sinner

ATP Monte Carlo Picks

Cristian Garin to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime at +125 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Thomas Fabbiano to beat Hubert Hurkacz at -157 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Jannik Sinner to win the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters at +5000 at bet365

How to Watch ATP Monte Carlo

ATP Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Information
What ATP Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters
Where Monte Carlo, Monaco
When Sunday, April 11 to Sunday, April 18
How to Watch Tennis Channel

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Cristian Garin

Player Odds
Felix Auger-Aliassime -157
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Cristian Garin +125
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Odds from DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or check out more offers and promo codes for the best online sportsbooks.

Garin is a quality clay courter and I’m a bit surprised to see him as the outsider in this match-up. There’s no doubt Auger-Aliassime is a talented player and he has beaten some good opponents on clay. But Garin is one of the better ones on this surface and this will be the Canadian’s first match on clay since the autumn (when he lost three of four).

Garin, on the other hand, has been playing on clay in South America already this season, winning the title in Santiago. I believe the layers are paying too much attention to the recent headlines surrounding Auger-Aliassime, who last week announced he has linked up with Rafael Nadal’s former coach and uncle, Toni. You can expect Nadal senior to add to the Canadian youngster’s game but expecting immediate dividends seems somewhat optimistic.

Indeed, an argument can actually be made that recent new advice will have disrupted Auger-Aliassime to a certain extent and that the eyed improvements are very much a work in progress.

In contrast, Garin has had plenty of time with his new coach, Franco Davin, who he hired in the off-season. After injury disrupted his start to 2021, Garin has had a window to hone his game ready for this part of the season. This is his time. He would have been relishing the European claycourt season in 2020 after winning two clay titles in the opening months of the year.

The pandemic obviously put paid to that but his stats on the surface in 2020 saw him ranked in the top six for return games won and the top 15 for service games won.

In short, the Chilean looks too big a price and odds of +125 should be taken.

Thomas Fabbiano vs Hubert Hurkacz

Player Odds
Thomas Fabbiano +370
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Hubert Hurkacz -500
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There’s nothing leaping off the page this week in terms of a long shot with many of the clay specialists priced up correctly, which isn’t always the case as this time of year. However, one who might be a spot of value is Italian Fabbiano, a player this column picked out at a big price last week.

In the end he failed to take down compatriot Marco Cecchinato in Cagliari but his effort justified the faith in him. He took the match all the way to a final set, in which he did have chances, before losing it 6-3. That clay outing provided a decent platform for him to come through qualifying here, beating a decent clay sort in Federico Coria and Joao Sousa. His reward is a shot as recent Miami Open winner Hurkacz. The Pole played some great stuff and toppled some big names in Florida but just eight days on the conditions in Monte Carlo will be somewhat different.

You never know how a player will respond after such a breakthrough win but history shows there’s a clear danger of a mental lull – and that’s heightened by the pretty quick switch to the clay.

With Fabbiano already bedded in on the surface and more of a natural in these conditions, backing him at +370 may prove worthwhile.

Best Outright Pick

Many will expect a Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal final in Monte Carlo but both men arrive here after two months without a match and Djokovic, in particular, looks vulnerable. He’s won just six of his 10 matches here since winning the title in 2015 with defeats to Jiri Vesely and David Goffin suffered during that period.

The world number one also has a tough draw, one which will likely open against the world’s best teenager, Jannik Sinner (the Italian will first have to beat Albert Ramos-Vinolas). Sinner made the final in Miami earlier this month and has been tipped by virtually everyone to go right to the top. He has a big game and is already mentally very tough. Last season he showed he can play on clay with a run to the last eight of the French Open where he gave Nadal arguably his hardest match of the tournament.

Having practiced often with Djokovic, the Italian won’t be surprised by his more established opponent. Of course, that can work both ways but Sinner has much more than a puncher’s chance in that match. If he does win it, his title odds will collapse.

A small each-way wager in the futures market at +5000 could reap rewards.

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Andy Schooler

Expert on Tennis

Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.