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UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez Odds, Predictions, Picks

Written by: Ryan Bristlon
Updated October 14, 2022
12 min read
  • Former featherweight champion and lightweight title contender Max Holloway returns to action after possibly his best performance to take on top-contender Yair Rodriguez in the main event this Saturday
  • The women’s featherweight division is also featured on this event as Felicia Spencer hopes to snap a two-fight skid against Leah Letson, who is competing for the first time in three years
  • The dynamic 23-year-old Song Yadong kicks off the main card with a bout against Miami’s Juilo Arce

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez

The odds for this match are provided by the Caesars Sportsbook. Click on the odds below to head to Caesars and place a bet.

Fighter Odds
Max Holloway -625
Yair Rodriguez +450
Fighter Odds
Ben Rothwell -150
Marcos Rogerio de Lima +125
Fighter Odds
Felicia Spencer -300
Leah Letson +240
Fighter Odds
Roman Dolidze +180
Kyle Daukaus -220
Fighter Odds
Song Yadong -135
Julio Arce +115

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez Picks

Max Holloway vs Yair Rodriguez – Featherweight Division

Max Holloway (-625)

Ben Rothwell vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima – Heavyweight Division

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+125)

Felicia Spencer vs Leah Letson – Women’s featherweight Division

Felicia Spencer (-300)

Roman Dolidze vs Kyle Daukaus – Middleweight Division

Roman Dolidze (+180)

Song Yadong vs Julio Arce – Bantamweight Division

Julio Arce (+115)

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Holloway Vs Rodriguez Predictions

Max Holloway vs Yair Rodriguez – Featherweight Division

Max Holloway TALE OF THE TAPE Yair Rodriguez
29 Age 29
5 ft. 11 in. Height 5 ft. 11 in.
69 in. Reach 71 in.
22-6 Record 13-2, 1 no-contest

Max Holloway is a staggering -625 to win Saturday night’s main event and it’s not hard to see why. Despite only having a record of 2-3 across his last 5 fights, one of those losses came in the lightweight division and another was a controversial split-decision loss to Alexander Volkanovski – a fight many believe Holloway won.

Despite that, many still consider Max Holloway the uncrowned champion of the featherweight division. He won the interim featherweight title in 2016 before unifying the titles by beating Jose Also. He then beat Also in their immediate rematch and then defended the belt once more against Brian Ortega.

He then lost back-to-back bouts against current champion Alexander Volkanovski. Since then, he has fought only once – showcasing a masterclass performance against Calvin Kattar this past January, a fight in which he set the UFC record for most significant strikes landed in a fight.

His opponent, Yair Rodriguez, has also had mixed success lately, going just 2-1 with one no-contest. But he is also coming off of a big win – a fight of the night unanimous decision win over Jeremy Stephens.

Both known for their striking, it is Rodriguez who boasts the accolades in that category, holding a black belt in taekwondo. Rodriguez will also have a two-inch reach advantage. Holloway holds a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

Both fighters are the same age, same height, and have both earned Fight of the Night bonuses four times during their UFC tenure.

Holloway is the favorite to win and it’s a safe bet that this will be the fifth fight of the night bonus for both men.

Ben Rothwell vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima – Heavyweight Division

Ben Rothwell TALE OF THE TAPE Marcos Rogerio de Lima
40 Age 36
6 ft. 4 in. Height 6 ft. 1 in.
78.5 in. Reach 75 in.
39-13 Record 18-7-1

“Big Ben” Rothwell is 1-1 over his last two fights but is coming off of a very impressive second-round submission win over Chris Barnett this past May.

Rothwell also holds notable UFC wins over the likes of Josh Barnett, Matt Mitrione, and former title challenger Alistair Overeem.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima has traded wins and losses throughout his UFC career, holding a record of 5-5 across his last ten fights. But he too is coming off of a May 2021 win; a unanimous decision over Maurice Greene.

Both men have edges over each other. The grappling advantage goes to de Lima, who holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu (Rothwell has a purple belt). He is also four-years younger.

But Rothwell will have significant physical advantages Saturday, as he will stand three-inch taller than his opponent and will enjoy a 3.3-inch reach advantage.

It is Rothwell who is ultimately favored as a -150.

Felicia Spencer vs Leah Letson – Women’s Featherweight Division

Felicia Spencer TALE OF THE TAPE Leah Letson
30 Age 29
5 ft. 6 in. Height 5 ft. 7 in.
68 in. Reach 71 in.
8-3 Record 5-1

Felicia Spencer came over to the UFC from Invicta FC in 2019 and has since gone 2-3. Currently she is riding a two-fight losing streak. She lost a unanimous decision for the featherweight title to Amanda Nunes at UFC 250 and most recently lost to Norma Dumont via split-decision this past May.

Leah Letson debuted for the UFC in 2018, winning her first bout in the octagon via split-decision. But a plethora of health issues has kept her from competing since then. This will be her first fight in three years.

Under head coach Mike Lee, Spencer holds black belts in both taekwondo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu. However it is her opponent that will have the advantage in both height and reach.

With that said, three years away from the sport is a long time for Leah Letson, and it’s no surprise that oddsmakers have her listed as a +240 underdog for this contest.

Roman Dolidze vs Kyle Daukaus – Middleweight Division

Roman Dolidze TALE OF THE TAPE Kyle Daukaus
33 Age 28
6 ft. 2 in. Height 6 ft. 3 in.
76 in. Reach 76 in.
9-1 Record 10-2, 1 no-contest

Both Roman Dolidze and Kyle Daukaus were set to take on different opponents this Saturday, but when both of their original opponents dropped out of the event due to injury, the UFC saw fit to pair these two together to do battle.

Dolidze, originally set to take on Eryk Anders, has gone 3-1 in the UFC, with that one loss being the only one on his professional record. He last fought against Laureano Staropoli this past June, defeating him via unanimous decision.

Kyle Daukaus was supposed to rematch Kevin Holland at this event to make up for their bout last month that ended as a no-contest. Daukaus was coming off of a loss to Phil Hawes prior to the first fight against Holland.

Dolidze is a former WWFC and ADCC champion as well as a former Grappling FILA world champion. Kyle Daukaus holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a purple belt in muay thai under Duane Ludwig.

These two fighters will have an equal reach. It is Daukaus who will have the slightest one-inch height advantage.

Song Yadong vs Julio Arce – Bantamweight Division

Song Yadong TALE OF THE TAPE Julio Arce
23 Age 32
5 ft. 8 in. Height 5 ft. 7 in.
67 in. Reach 70 in.
17-5-1, 1 no-contest Record 17-4

Signing with the UFC in 2017, Song Yadong has only one loss in eight fights with the promotion and he is still just 23-years-old. He last fought this past August at UFC 265 – defeating Casey Kenney via split-decision. He also holds notable wins over Alejandro Perez and Marlon “Chito” Vera.

Nine-years older than Yadong is his opponent Julio Arce, who is 2-2 across his last four fights but is coming off of a spectacular second-round TKO win over Andre Ewell this past July. It was his first bout in the bantamweight division since joining the promotion.

Arce is a former Ring of Combat featherweight and bantamweight champion. He was also the 2011 Golden Gloves champion. He holds a second-degree MMA black belt in Tiger Schulmann.

Yadong currently trains in California with Team Alpha Male. He will stand one inch taller than his opponent but will be at a three-inch reach disadvantage. That is rather significant given Arce’s striking credentials.

Despite this, Song Yadong is the favorite to win, but we don’t necessarily agree with that one.

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How to Watch UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez

UFC Fight Night Information
Fight UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez
Location UFC Apex, Enterprise, Nevada
Time Saturday, November 13, 4 PM EST
How to watch ESPN, ESPN+
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Ryan Bristlon

432 Articles

Ryan Bristlon is a Canadian writer currently residing in Hamilton, Ontario. He studied print and broadcast journalism at Humber College and has been a lifelong fan of the sport of hockey and the NHL.

Email: [email protected]

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