Image for Greg Lea Greg Lea - October 14, 2022

RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich Prediction, Picks, Betting Odds

Rb Leipzig Vs Bayern Munich
  • Bayern clicking into gear under the leadership of Nagelsmann
  • Leipzig would be happy with a top-four finish this season
  • Bayern Should Come Out on Top at the Red Bull Arena

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RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich Odds

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RB Leipzig +195
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Tie +275
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Bayern Munich +130
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RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich Prediction & Pick

Back Bayern Munich to win the big Bundesliga game of the weekend. RB Leipzig have undergone significant changes since last season and it will take them a while to get up to speed. Bayern should make it 10 points from 12 at the Red Bull Arena.

Pick:

Bayern Munich to Win

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Bayern Clicking Into Gear Under Leadership of Nagelsmann

Bayern Munich are Germany’s wealthiest club, but they cannot compete with the spending power of the likes of Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea, Manchester City, and Manchester United. Real Madrid has had a relatively quiet couple of years in the transfer market, but they too had significantly higher outgoings in terms of player acquisition than Bayern throughout the 2010s. Before Barcelona’s present financial crisis, they too blew the German giants out of the water when it came to squad spending.

Bayern have nevertheless remained competitive in Europe during the last decade, winning the Champions League in 2013 and 2020. At £328m, their net spends in the 2010s was not exactly minuscule either, even if it did place them outside Europe’s top 10 during the decade. Even so, Bayern were far clear of any domestic rivals, with RB Leipzig’s net spend of £191m the closest another German side could get to the juggernaut from Munich.

This trend has continued since then, and the enduring hierarchy within the Bundesliga was in evidence this summer. RB Leipzig finished second last season. The year before, they reached the semi-finals of the Champions League. Yet they were powerless to resist when Bayern came calling. The champions, who are currently seeking a 10th consecutive Bundesliga title, poached Leipzig’s manager Julian Nagelsmann in July. If that was not enough, they also signed Marcel Sabitzer and Dayot Upamecano from their closest challengers last term.

This is a problem for the Bundesliga. It is not healthy for the biggest club in the league to be able to pick off its competitors in this manner, be they Leipzig in 2021 or Borussia Dortmund in 2013-14. The equivalent using last season’s Premier League table would be Manchester City signing Paul Pogba and Bruno Fernandes from Manchester United. The status quo might suit Bayern, but it is increasingly hard to see who else benefits.


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Leipzig Would Be Happy With a Top-Four Finish This Season

For the reasons mentioned above, Leipzig would love to overcome Bayern this weekend. They might even have the backing of a few neutrals, many of whom usually despise the club due to its commercialized membership structure. However, it is difficult to see them overcoming their former manager and his new employers.

Leipzig have had a tough start to the season. They were excellent in a 4-0 thrashing of Stuttgart but suffered 1-0 defeats by Mainz and Wolfsburg on either side of that win. It could take a while for Leipzig to get going this term. The squad only spent two years under Nagelsmann, but a period of adjustment to the methods of his successor, Jesse Marsch, is still required.

Leipzig have shifted to a four-man defense having primarily used a three-at-the-back system under Nagelsmann. Marsch also wants to place a greater emphasis on counter-pressing, whereas his predecessor had tried to move the team beyond that to an extent. There have also been changes in the squad, with Upamecano and Sabitzer in line to feature for Leipzig’s opponents this weekend, and Ibrahima Konate now a Liverpool player.

Leipzig have made signings to make up for those outgoings, but it will take time for them to adapt. Dominik Szoboszlai already knows the Red Bull system thanks to his time at Salzburg, but it will take a few more weeks before the integration of Andre Silva, Mohamed Simaka and Ilaix Moriba is complete. A title tilt will therefore be even more difficult for Leipzig this season, and key figures at the club would surely settle for a top-four finish in this transitional year.

Bayern Should Come Out on Top at the Red Bull Arena

Bayern were superb in their final outing before the international break; their 5-0 demolition of Hertha Berlin was their best display under Nagelsmann so far. Bayern were in full control of the match from the first minute to the last, and produced some tremendous attacking soccer throughout. Nagelsmann will have been equally pleased with a clean sheet, and there are signs that Niklas Sule and Upamecano are beginning to strike up an understanding at the heart of the defense.

The star of the show was, once again, Robert Lewandowski. The hat-trick hero has taken his game to another level in the last couple of years, and Leipzig will have their hands full trying to subdue him on Saturday. Should they succeed in doing so – and that is a big if – they will also need to ensure they do not neglect the likes of Thomas Muller, Serge Gnabry, and Jamal Musiala, such is the attacking depth Bayern are able to call upon.

Leipzig could potentially benefit from being underdogs in a game like this. Marsch will no doubt encourage his players to adopt a counter-attacking approach, and Silva showed at Eintracht Frankfurt that he knows how to score goals at this level. Yet Leipzig are still working their way through the summer changes, and Bayern should be able to take advantage by winning at the Red Bull Arena this weekend.

How to Watch RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich

RB Leipzig vs Bayern MunichInformation
Teams RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich
Location Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, Germany
Time Saturday, 11 September 2021, 12.30 PM EDT
How to watch ESPN

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AUTHOR

Greg Lea

571 Articles

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]

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