Bundesliga 2020/21 Relegation Predictions, Odds & Picks

Bundesliga Relegation

  • Schalke have had a disastrous campaign and will surely go down
  • Mainz, Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha Berlin are also at the wrong end of the table
  • It is still too early for Koln, Werder Bremen and Augsburg to celebrate survival

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Bundesliga Relegation Odds

Odds taken 4 Mar, 2021 from BetMGM

Relegation Odds
Arminia Bielefeld -167
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Mainz -118
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Koln +275
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Hertha Berlin +275
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Augsburg +1800
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Werder Bremen +3300
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Bundesliga Relegation Predictions and Picks

Schalke have been a mainstay of the Bundesliga over the last three decades, but they will be playing their soccer in the second tier next term. Such is the Royal Blues’ predicament that BetMGM do not even offer odds on their relegation, which means the remaining teams are fighting to avoid one automatic place as well as the play-off spot.

Mainz are currently below them in the table, but Arminia Bielefeld looks more vulnerable to the drop. As well as backing Arminia, the favorites, to succumb to demotion, consider putting some money on Hertha going down, which could come via defeat in the two-legged relegation play-off. The capital club are 15th right now, but only Schalke have won fewer games this season.

How to Watch Bundesliga

Bundesliga Information
What 2020/21 Bundesliga season
Where Germany
When Now – 22 May 2021
How to Watch Watch on ESPN+ here!

Arminia Bielefeld the Favorites to Join Schalke in the 2. Bundesliga

Unlike some of the teams around them in the table, Arminia Bielefeld always knew they were in for a season of struggle. Promoted as 2. Bundesliga champions last term, Arminia were the pre-season favorites for the drop at -118, and their odds have got even shorter since then.

Arminia have fought hard and will continue to do so, but they do not seem to have enough top-flight quality to stay up. They are currently without a manager after dismissing Uwe Neuhaus earlier this week following a run of four defeats in their last five games. An excellent January seemed to suggest they could finish above the dreaded dotted line, but all that momentum has since been wasted. Armenia do not score enough goals and concede too many, and in any soccer league in the world that is a recipe for disaster.

Schalke certainly did not expect to be mired in a relegation battle, even if there were signs of their decline in the second half of last season. The Royal Blues have been in the Bundesliga without interruption since 1991, and they finished as runners-up as recently as 2017/18.

Yet this has been a truly disastrous campaign for Schalke, who have won only one game and sit nine points adrift of safety. The club has in effect given up hope of survival and is instead begin to plan for life in the second tier next term.

Mainz Have Struggled but Should Have the Quality to Stay Up

If Arminia do manage to clamber out of trouble, Mainz could be the team to replace them in the bottom two. Even if Armenia does go down, die Nullfunfer could still join them in the 2. Bundesliga if they lose the relegation play-off, although it should be noted that Bundesliga teams have tended to fare well in that fixture in recent years.

Mainz have been in the top flight for a long time now, but they have struggled to get out of the bottom half of the table in the last few seasons. Yet Mainz has always found a way to finish above the bottom three, and their experience of steering clear of the drop should stand them in good stead for what lays ahead this season.

However, their current predicament looks tougher than in years gone by. Mainz are currently

second-bottom of the standings and have won just four of their 23 matches to date. Their fight against the drop could go right down to the wire, but they are better going forward than Arminia and that should help them finish just outside the automatic relegation spots. They have also lost just one of their last four games and face Schalke this weekend.

Hertha Berlin and Koln Are Vulnerable but Others Look Safe

For a long time, Hertha Berlin were the German capital’s only representative in the Bundesliga. Union Berlin took part in the top flight last term, though, and in 2020/21 they will finish above their local rivals. Union were available for relegation at +175 last summer, but after 23 matches they find themselves challenging for Europe. Hertha’s ambitions are much more modest, but they have more firepower in attack than Arminia, Koln and Mainz, and that should save them.

Koln are a little further ahead of Hertha, but they are not out of the woods yet either. Available at +350 before a ball had been kicked this term, they have drifted to a price of +275 after failing to pull clear of the bottom three. They are in poor form right now, but their relatively good home record could ultimately prove decisive in their bid to preserve their top-tier status.

It is hard to see either Augsburg or Werder Bremen going down, which is why BetMGM offers long odds on both. Augsburg have an eight-point cushion above the bottom three and are adept at grinding out results. Heiko Herrlich’s side have never slipped lower than 13th this term, and they may well end up finishing safely in mid-table. Their defensive record is also much better than the teams below them, and that solidity will help them to get over the line.

Werder Bremen are ahead of Augsburg on goal difference alone, but they have played one game fewer than the Fuggerstadter and could therefore move three points ahead of them soon. Werder have arguably been fortunate to score as many as 26 goals this term; indeed, they rank third-bottom in the Bundesliga for Expected Goals, a measure of chance quality. Even so, Werder will be looking up the table rather than down it in the final three months of the season.

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Greg Lea

Expert on Soccer

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.



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