The odds for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
Borussia Dortmund have still not learned how to defend, and Union Berlin will look to take the game to the visitors to the capital.
Back over 3.5 goals in the Caesars Sportsbook.
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Bayern Munich will win the Bundesliga for the 10th time in a row this season. That has always been the likeliest outcome, but Borussia Dortmund’s loss to Bayer Leverkusen last weekend essentially sealed the deal as the champions moved nine points clear at the summit of the standings. That is a significant advantage at this stage of the campaign, and it is hard to see Dortmund making up enough ground to even make the race a close-run thing. Bayern are on the verge of becoming the kings of German soccer once more.
It is hard to be too critical of Dortmund for failing to keep pace with the Bayern juggernaut. After all, this is a club that generates double the revenue of BVB, who have routinely lost key players to the Bavarians over the past decade. The structural inequality within the German game (although the phenomenon is far from unique to Europe’s second-most populous country) is such that Bayern begins each and every season as heavy favorites to finish on top of the pile.
Even so, Dortmund’s penchant for inconsistency must be infuriating to their supporters. Marco Rose’s side were dismantled by Leverkusen last time out, losing 5-2 on home turf. The ease with which their opponents cut through Dortmund time and time again was extremely concerning. Erling Haaland might have been out injured, but that was no excuse for their defensive ineptitude.
Nor was this a one-off. Dortmund have kept two clean sheets this season, a pitifully low number for a team with title aspirations. They have conceded 36 goals, the fifth-worst defensive record in the division. A championship challenge was never going to be sustainable for a side which continues to make the same mistakes at the back.
Union Berlin head into this game in fourth place, despite a 2-0 loss to Augsburg last time out. That followed on from an impressive 2-1 victory over Borussia Monchengladbach which saw Union climb into the Champions League spots for the first time all season. They had been hovering around the top four for a while, but a terrific run of results in recent weeks (Augsburg defeat excepted) has made them one of the current occupants of those four qualification places.
Union were unbeaten in five matches before that loss last weekend. Having previously struggled to score goals on a consistent basis, they have found the net twice in three of their last four encounter. And Fischer’s side are still tough to play against and difficult to beat. They have lost only five matches this term; Bayern Munich are the only team to have suffered fewer defeats.
Union are still outsiders in the race to qualify for Europe’s premier competition. Bayern and Dortmund will almost certainly be two of Germany’s representatives, and various online sports betting sites fancy Bayer Leverkusen to take third spot. RB Leipzig, Eintracht Frankfurt and Hoffenheim are all given a better chance of finishing in the top four than Union.
Yet this is a club which enjoys being the underdog. Union have exceeded expectations in the past and it would be foolish to write them off at this juncture.
Dortmund’s 21 league fixtures this season have produced 90 goals, giving an average of 4.29 per game. Backing over 3.5 goals in a game featuring BVB would have paid out in 62 per cent of their Bundesliga games this term, as well as in four of their six Champions League encounters to date.
Union Berlin’s matches have not been quite as entertaining in that regard, with their supporters witnessing 56 goals at an average of 2.66 per match. But Union have demonstrated more of a cutting edge in attack since the turn of the year. Fischer is an astute coach and he will have studied ways in which his team can exploit Dortmund’s weaknesses out of possession.
Union average only 43 per cent possession, so we can expect BVB to dominate the ball on Sunday. But that might actually play into the home team’s hands. Leverkusen were ruthless in transition last time out and Dortmund did not know how to handle it. A similar approach in Berlin could yield a positive result for Union.
From a betting perspective, though, the best value lies in the goals market. Put some money on over 3.5 at odds of +150.
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|Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Information|
|Teams||Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund|
|Location||Stadion An der Alten Forsterei, Berlin, Germany|
|Time||Sunday, 13 February 2022, 9.30 AM EST|
|How to watch||ESPN|
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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]More info on Greg Lea
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