Rocket Mortgage Classic: Balls Will Roll off the Green if They Get Near the Edge

• The fourth edition of the tournament returns again to Detroit GC
• Patrick Cantlay is the highest-ranked player in the field and leads the betting
• Cam Davis defends the trophy he won in a three-man playoff last year

The Rocket Mortgage Classic Odds

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The Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks and Predictions

Denny McCarthy is the outright pick at +4200 win and +500 top 10 with FanDuel Sportsbook

Webb Simpson top 10 at +475 with bet365

Kevin Kisner to beat Davis Riley in a matchbet at -105 with FanDuel Sportsbook

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The Rocket Mortgage Classic Profile

This is the fourth year of the Rocket Mortgage Classic and it is an event that means rather more to the journeymen and hopefuls of the PGA Tour than the world’s elite.

The later are recovering from the major championships and getting themselves ready for the FedExCup Playoffs in August, while the former want to guarantee their inclusion in that sprint to the seasonal line or confirm cards for the 2022/23 season.

They have only this week and next to achieve either (or both) of those aims.

Patrick Cantlay, who is fourth in the world rankings and sixth in the FedExCup, is the tournament favorite, ahead of last week’s winner of the 3M Open, Tony Finau.

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Course Report

Donald Ross designed the course in the 1910s and it will be played this week as a par 72 at around 7,300 yards with a bentgrass/poa mis on the greens.

It’s a parkland layout with tree-lined fairways and it could well get blustery ahead of the cut.

It’s been made a little bit more difficult with lusher rough after the first edition was won by Nate Lashley with a 25-under total and Bryson DeChambeau claimed the second renewal on 23-under – last year’s champion Cam Davis was 18-under and won in a three-man playoff.

Note that Sedgefield, which hosts the Wyndham Championship, is also a Donald Ross design and Davis had hinted at his fondness for a Ross challenge by posting four 65s in his previous five laps at Sedgefield.

To confirm the importance of the latter Webb Simpson said:

What is difficult about Donald Ross courses is how the greens are so undulating and almost like flipped upside down bowls. It means that balls will roll off the green if they get near the edge.

And Brian Stuard concurred, adding:

It’s an old-school, tree-lined, traditional golf course with greens that typical of a Donald Ross course.

McCarthy Can Pounce

I’m really rather surprised by the price of Denny McCarthy this week.

In his last start, at the John Deere Classic, he went off at +2500 and backed up the market’s belief in his talents with tied sixth, having been second after 36 and 54 holes.

This field might be a little better than that one, but not by much, so I’m more than happy to back him at +4200 win and +500 top 10 with the FanDuel Sportsbook.

After all, there was a very straightforward reason he was popular a few weeks ago – because he’s finished tied fifth in the Memorial Tournament and tied sixth in the US Open shortly before.

If that’s his form ticked that about his potential on the course?

He missed the cut last year but finished a promising T21st on debut two years earlier.

Moreover, he has a fine record at Sedgefield, taking in T36th on debut, T22nd in 2019, tied ninth in 2020, and T15th last year.

He’s also got four 65s and a 63 in his last 12 laps there. All in all, he looks a potential contender and even a first-time winner.

Simpson Can Spin a Webb

Webb Simpson might have detailed how tricky Donald Ross greens might be to hit, but he’s never had much difficulty with them.

In fact his record is downright sensational at Sedgefield.

It reads: 13 starts, 11 top 25 finishes and nine of them were top 10s.

And at Detroit? He’s played there twice, finishing tied eighth in 2010 (when sharing the halfway lead) and missing the cut last year.

The latter result came at the start of some recent form difficulties but it’s not so long ago that he was T13th at TPC River Highlands and that is the nearest test to this week he has faced in the last month.

If he’s going to bounce back to his best anywhere this looks the ideal spot.

With even a sniff of decent form he would be nowhere near this good a price.

Take him to make the top 10 with bet365 offering +475.

Take Veteran Wiles Over Potential

In ordinary circumstances, I would be keen to favor the up-and-coming Davis Riley in any match-up against the veteran Kevin Kisner.

In this 2021/22 season, for example, the youngster leads the head-to-head count 10-3.

But in certain circumstances, it makes sense to follow the canny Kisner and consider where he has finished ahead of Riley: at Waialae in the Sony Open, at Harbour Town in the RBC Heritage, and at TPC River Highland in the Travelers Championship.

All three of those courses are on the short side, they demand accuracy and they play into the hands of Kisner.

The same can be said of this week.

He’s played Detroit three times, finishing T46th, tied third and tied eighth.

We’ve already discussed that it is a Ross design and if you throw in Kisner at Sedgefield he has a record that reads: 10 starts, 10 cuts made, six of them top 10s (including in each of his last four starts).

Riley is a novice on on Ross and might need to be at his very best to better Kisner this week.

Take Kisner in the matchbet at the FanDuel Sportsbook, priced -105.

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