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|Germany or Draw||-500
|Germany or Italy||-380
|Italy or Draw||+110
The Azzurri have fared well in the Nations League up to now and can avoid defeat by Germany for the second time.
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When Italy won Euro 2020 last summer, there were few arguments from the rest of the continent. The Azzurri played the best soccer at the tournament from the very first round of matches. They were arguably a little fortunate to get past Austria and Spain in the knockout stage but, equally, defeat in either match would have been harsh on Roberto Mancini’s men. More than any other side at the tournament, Italy played with the coherence and quality of an elite Champions League team.
Ordinarily, the reigning European champions would be among the favorites to win the subsequent World Cup, which gets underway in Qatar in November. This time, Italy are not even dark horses. Incredibly, the conquerors of their continent failed to qualify. Having finished second to Switzerland in the group stage of UEFA’s qualification process after failing to win exactly half of their eight matches, Italy inexplicably lost at home to North Macedonia in the play-off semi-finals.
Italy also missed out on the 2018 edition of the World Cup. They are the joint-second most successful nation in the tournament’s history, yet two decades will have passed since their last knockout stage victory by the time 2026 rolls around. It was always going to be difficult for Italy to bounce back from that crushing blow quickly, and they were roundly beaten by Argentina in the Finalissima at the start of June.
Since then, though, there has been cause for some cautious optimism. Italy sit at the top of Group A3 in the Nations League heading into Tuesday’s final round of fixtures before September.
Beating Hungary might not sound like much, but both England and Germany failed to do so. Italy also avoided defeat in their first meetings with those two teams. The path to Euro 2024 has started early for the Azzurri, and Mancini will be pleased with how his side have performed so far this month.
Germany, for their part, have not really got going yet. Their performances have arguably deserved more than the three points they have amassed so far, with the Mannschaft particularly unfortunate not to beat England on matchday two.
However, their display in the subsequent 1-1 draw with Hungary was hugely disappointing, and Hansi Flick still has plenty to think about if Germany want to challenge at the World Cup.
We have to make sure we learn lessons from this game, the former Bayern Munich boss said after the game in Budapest, in what was a blunt assessment of his side’s subdued showing. I’m not going to make any excuses – we wanted to get three points today. Of course, everyone was very disappointed in the dressing room. We now have two days to regenerate and send the fittest 11 onto the pitch versus Italy.
The last World Cup was a disaster for Germany, who crashed out in the group phase despite being handed a reasonably favorable draw alongside South Korea, Mexico and Sweden. There is little doubt that Germany are a much better team now than they were four years ago, but the Nations League has already shown that they are far from the finished article.
Since there is no World Cup to build towards, Mancini has made the sensible decision to use the Nations League to look at some of the younger players available to him. Wilfried Gnonto, who is just 18, and the 22-year-old Giacomo Raspadori started against Hungary. Davide Frattesi, also 22, played from the first whistle in the home game against Germany. The defense to face England featured Federico Gatti, who at 23 years old is on the young side for an Italian center-back.
Mancini has struck the right balance between youth and experience, and the players have demonstrated determination and character in each of their first three Nations League fixtures. Germany, meanwhile, have at times failed to turn their control of the ball into something more substantial. It is a shortcoming that Mancini will be well aware of ahead of Tuesday’s match.
On the plus side for Germany, they too have shown resilience to go unbeaten in their first three outings. But the Mannschaft are struggling to turn draws into wins and they could once again fall short against the European champions on matchday four.
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|Germany vs Italy Information|
|Teams||Germany vs Italy|
|Location||Borussia-Park, Monchengladbach, Germany|
|Time||Tuesday, 14 June 2022, 2.45 PM EDT|
|How to watch||Fox Sports 1, fuboTV|
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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]More info on Greg Lea
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