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John Herdman’s men should pick up their first win here, but a clean sheet could be out of reach.
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Canada would have been expecting to get their CONCACAF Gold Cup 2023 campaign off to a winning start last time out. A fixture against Guadeloupe seemed to be a reasonably straightforward assignment for a team that took part in World Cup 2022 a few months ago.
Guadeloupe are ranked 19th within CONCACAF, the federation which covers soccer in North America, Central America and the Caribbean. By way of comparison that puts them two places above St Kitts & Nevis, who were recently thrashed 6-0 by the USMNT.
Guadeloupe qualified for the Gold Cup through the preliminaries, in which they thrashed Antigua & Barbuda 5-0 and then beat Guyana 2-0. Another victory was not forthcoming against Canada, but a 2-2 draw will have been celebrated with just as much fervor in the French overseas department of less than 400,000 people.
Guadeloupe took the lead through Thierry Ambrose, but two second-half goals saw Canada turn a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 lead. It looked like John Herdman’s side had got the job done, but an own goal from Jacen Russell-Rowe in stoppage time earned Guadeloupe a famous point.
On the same day it was reported that the Canadian soccer federation is in financial trouble and could be forced to file for bankruptcy. That is not an excuse for the players, but Canada should not be too down about the draw.
For one, they created plenty of chances and probably would have won that match eight times out of 10. What is more, there is still time to make amends. Two victories in their next two games would probably see Canada advance to the knockout stage as Group D winners.
That is the aim for Herdman and his squad, who went into the Gold Cup as one of the three main favorites with the best online sportsbooks, alongside the USA and Mexico.
Guatemala are top of Group D after the first round of fixtures. A goal from Darwin Lom early in the second half was enough to see them past Cuba, who pushed for an equalizer but could not find one.
It was a significant victory for Guatemala, who had not won a game at this tournament since 2011. They crashed out in the group phase two years ago but now have a genuine chance of advancing to the knockout stage of the 2023 edition.
Their results in recent months are largely impressive. Since November 2022 Guatemala have beaten Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize and French Guiana, as well as drawing with Panama.
Defeats by Trinidad & Tobago and Venezuela were by a one-goal margin, while they did not disgrace themselves in a 2-0 loss to Mexico either.
Guatemala are by no means a continental heavyweight, but this is a nation with pretty solid Gold Cup experience. They reached the quarter-finals in 2007 and 2011, before which they finished fourth in 1996.
They even won the CONCACAF Championship, the forerunner to the Gold Cup, in 1967, and were runners-up in 1965 and 1969. They will not be fazed by the occasion when they face Canada this weekend.
Having said that, they will clearly be the underdogs at Houston’s Shell Energy Stadium. Guatemala will cede possession and look to do damage to Canada in phases of transition when the ball changes hands. They should not be written off.
Mexico and the USMNT have both registered handsome wins so far at the Gold Cup, and Canada could do with a statement performance of their own after that frustrating and surprise 2-2 draw with Guadeloupe.
It will be interesting to see whether Herdman shuffles his pack at all. With the likes of Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David excused following the CONCACAF Nations League Finals, Canada do not have their strongest possible squad available at the Gold Cup.
Five players made their first appearances against Guadeloupe as Canada opted for a blend of youth and experience, but Herdman could lean towards the latter on this occasion - not least because Guatemala are a better side.
Even without David and Davies, their two star players, Canada have plenty of quality within the ranks. That should be enough for them to get over the line here, but do not expect them to have everything their own way.
From a betting perspective, we like the look of a Canada victory and both teams to score, a wager which is currently available at a pretty attractive price. Back Herdman’s side to get off the mark at the Gold Cup, but expect Guatemala to give them something to think about.
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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]
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