The wager would be successful if PSV triumph, while a draw would see your stake returned - this market essentially gets rid of the tie option.
Back PSV in the draw no bet market (+105)
While their domestic rivals were in Premier League action last week, Arsenal were catching up on a postponed Europa League assignment. Their home game against PSV was always going to be crucial in determining which of the two teams took control of Group A, and it was Arsenal who emerged triumphant in front of their own fans at the Emirates Stadium.
A 1-0 scoreline might appear to suggest that it was a close match, but in truth Arsenal were dominant from start to finish. They had 62 percent of the possession last Thursday. Whereas PSV had four shots and found the target with just one of them, the Gunners registered 25 attempts on goal, nine of which were on target. The expected goals were in their favor too: 2.71 to 0.34.
A more disappointing result followed at the weekend, as Arsenal drew 1-1 with Southampton. Yet the draw at St Mary’s means Arsenal are still top of the Premier League after 11 rounds of fixtures. They are not yet the favorites to win the title with the best online sportsbooks, which all have Manchester City in first place despite their present two-point deficit at the summit of the standings.
But Arsenal are now second on the list, having been fifth - below City, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea - at the beginning of the campaign. That shows the progress they have made over the last couple of months.
Mikel Arteta’s men are considered the outright favorites to win the Europa League, but that status could be challenged if the likes of Juventus, Ajax and Barcelona drop into the competition from the Champions League after Christmas. For now, they will be focused on picking up the point they need to guarantee their place in the round of 16.
PSV can still mathematically finish top of Group A and thus advance straight to the round of 16, but the fact they are five points adrift of Arsenal with only six left to play for means that a second-place finish is a much more probable outcome.
That would send PSV through to the knockout round play-offs, where they would face one of the third-place finishers in the Champions League - so, potentially Juventus or Barcelona (older PSV fans will fondly remember their aggregate victory over the La Liga giants en route to UEFA Cup glory in 1978).
Ruud van Nistelrooy will still be frustrated that his team were drawn into a tough group alongside Arsenal and the tricky Bodo/Glimt, but it is hard to see them dropping out of the top two from here.
PSV were hoping to bounce back from last week’s loss at the Emirates with a healthy victory over Groningen in the Eredivisie, but instead they succumbed to a 4-2 defeat on Sunday.
That was not ideal preparation for Thursday’s game, and although PSV will point to the fact that the opposition goalkeeper Jan de Boer was in fantastic form, going 3-0 down in the first half is not something Van Nistelrooy will want to see repeated.
Arsenal were rampant in the first 20 minutes of Sunday’s game against Southampton. Granit Xhaka gave them the lead in that period and the visitors to St Mary’s created opportunities to score again. But a tactical tweak from Ralph Hasenhuttl allowed Southampton to get back into the match.
For the first time this season, Arsenal looked leggy in the second half. Their performance after the break was mediocre, and on another day Southampton might even have nicked the win. Arsenal do not have a particularly big squad, so it is perhaps not surprising that a degree of fatigue has started to creep in amid an exceptionally hectic period ahead of the 2022 World Cup.
Sunday’s showing might have been enough to convince Arteta to rest some of his most important players on Thursday. Even if Arsenal lose, they will finish top of their group by beating pointless Zurich at home on matchday six. This is therefore a match in which they can afford to be defeated.
That in turn boosts PSV’s chances of pulling off an upset. The Dutch side have won each of their last four home games in all competitions and scored 15 goals in their last three at the Philips Stadion. Van Nistelrooy’s men are a match for anyone on home turf, so Arsenal will not be in store for a straightforward evening.
In our judgment, the best betting selection for Thursday’s game is tipping PSV in the draw-no-bet market.
|Teams||PSV vs Arsenal|
|Location||Philips Stadion, Eindhoven, Netherlands|
|Time||Thursday, 27 October 2022, 12.45 PM EDT|
|How to watch||Paramount+|
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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]More info on Greg Lea
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