USMNT vs Canada Odds: Hosts Face Tricky Test in Quarter Finals

Written by: Greg Lea
Published July 5, 2023
5 min read
  • The USMNT finished top of Group A after taking seven points from a possible nine
  • Canada were the runners-up in Group D following one victory and two draws
  • Only one of these two teams can make it through to the Gold Cup semi-finals

USMNT vs Canada Odds

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Total Goals


Over 2.5



Under 2.5



USMNT vs Canada Pick

We fancy attacks to come out on top in this one at CONCACAF Gold Cup 2023.

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USMNT vs Canada prediction

USMNT Look To Complete Double Over Canada This Summer

So, they meet again. Last month the USMNT faced Canada in the final of the CONCACAF Nations League. The USA were the winners on that occasion, as goals from Chris Richards and Folarin Balogun in the first half brought them a 2-0 victory.

This meeting will be very different, though. Both nations selected very different squads for the Gold Cup, with star players given time off. The Nations League Finals, a shorter tournament, was given priority by not only the USMNT and Canada but Mexico too.

The USA got their Gold Cup campaign off to a disappointing start. A 1-1 draw with a strong Jamaica side was a decent result, but their performance left a lot to be desired. Jamaica could easily have won: they missed a penalty go 2-0 up, and the USA needed a late equalizer to avoid defeat.

BJ Callaghan’s side improved after matchday one, though. A 6-0 thrashing of Saint Kitts & Nevis was slightly better than par for the course before the USMNT beat Trinidad & Tobago by the same scoreline to secure the top spot in Group A.

Having won their group, the USA would have expected to land a more straightforward quarter-final assignment than this. But to win a competition like the Gold Cup, it is inevitable that you will have to beat some of CONCACAF’s stronger sides at some point.

The USMNT will certainly be in a confident mood after those back-to-back demolitions of Saint Kitts & Nevis and Trinidad & Tobago. The experimental squad selected by Callaghan (no doubt Gregg Berhalter, who will retake control after the Gold Cup, had a say so too) gave fringe members of the squad a chance to make an impression.

Several players have done that already, but this meeting with Canada will be a stiffer test than the last two.

Canada Hoping to Move On From Slow Start to Competition

Canada were far from their best in the group stage, even taking into account the fact they are without the likes of Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David in their roster. 

John Herdman still has some good players at his disposal, so his team’s first two results were frustrating. A 2-2 draw with Guadeloupe on matchday one was a poor result, as was a 0-0 tie with Guatemala a few days later.

Canada booked their spot in the quarter-finals courtesy of a 4-2 victory over Cuba on Tuesday. Their opponents scored twice from the penalty spot but it was a solid showing from Canada overall, as Herdman’s side finally got off the mark.

Five points from a possible nine was not as good a return as expected, however. Canada are seeking their first trophy since 2000 and there are legitimate questions about strength in depth given their unconvincing displays in Group D.

Yet Canada should not be written off. It is important to peak in the knockout phase of international tournaments, not in the group. Argentina lost their first game of World Cup 2022, then went on to lift the trophy.

The shift to a 4-4-2 formation against Cuba was successful, and it will be interesting to see how Canada line up this weekend. Herdman is still searching for the right balance between attack and defense: despite the win against Cuba, Canada still conceded twice to the team that finished bottom of the group.

There is clearly room for improvement for Herdman’s team, but Canadian soccer fans will hope the team raises its game for this crunch clash.

USMNT Favorites But This Could Be a Close Game on Sunday

The USMNT are the favorites for Sunday’s quarter-final, but this will probably be a close match. The USA do not have their full strength side at their disposal and beating Saint Kitts & Nevis and Trinidad & Tobago does not mean they will find things easy against Canada.

Having said that, Herdman’s side will have to produce their best performance of the tournament to stand a realistic chance of getting the better of the USA, particularly when the Cincinnati crowd will be heavily in the latter’s favor.

Rather than betting the moneyline, we recommend focusing on the goals market in this one. Over 2.5 looks like the way to go. 

The USMNT have been in fine attacking form of late, and although Canada are a much stronger proposition than their two previous opponents, there is attacking talent within Callaghan’s roster.

Canada will pose a threat too, though, especially if Herdman sticks with the 4-4-2 setup that produced that victory over Cuba. They are capable of creating chances through established possession and are especially dangerous in transition.

Because this is a knockout tie, the team that falls behind will be compelled to take a few more risks in search of a leveler. With that in mind and at the attractive odds available, back over 2.5 goals.

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How to Watch USMNT vs Canada

  • Teams: USMNT vs Canada
  • Location: TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, United States.
  • Date and Time: Jul. 9, 2023, 7.30 p.m. ET 
  • How to Watch: Fox Sports 1, fuboTV
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Greg Lea

Soccer Betting Analyst

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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.
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