Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Pitcher-Hitter Histories Guide Tuesday’s Home Run Picks

One factor that often helps to guide our home run predictions each day is how a particular batter has performed against the other team’s starting pitcher. On Tuesday, we found some truly remarkable track records for hitters against the pitchers they’ll be facing. While that wasn’t the only factor we took into account, the trends we found were too much to ignore.

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Best Home Run Props Picks for Tuesday, May 5

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Home Run Picks for Tuesday, May 5

Bryce Harper Anytime Home Run (+360) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Harper and the Phillies begin a series on Tuesday against Luis Severino and the A’s, a team that used to call Philly home. Harper should be excited to face Severino. In eight previous at-bats against him, Harper has three hits, and all three have been home runs, which bodes well for his chances to go deep on Tuesday.

Keep in mind that Harper is already in a groove after going 3 for 4 with a home run on Monday. At the same time, Severino has long been vulnerable to the long ball. While he’s only allowed four home runs this season, given his history against Harper, he has a tough task in front of him.

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Elly De La Cruz Anytime Home Run (+470) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Jameson Taillon gets the start at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, which is great news for De La Cruz and the Reds. In 14 career at-bats against Taillon, De La Cruz has five hits, including two home runs. With 10 home runs already this season, the 24-year-old shortstop appears to be fully realizing his potential as a power hitter, making him a player to consider as a home run target most days.

At the same time, Taillon has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers to the long ball in 2026. His 4.41 ERA is fine, but he’s already yielded nine home runs in just 34.2 innings this season. Taillon has given up at least one home run in five straight starts and multiple home runs in three of those starts, making De La Cruz and a few members of the Reds ideal home run targets for Tuesday.

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Mark Vientos Anytime Home Run (+570) at FanDuel Sportsbook

We bet on Vientos to homer yesterday and missed, but not by much. If not for an unusually stiff wind at Coors Field, Vientos could have easily had two home runs. He made an out on a long fly ball that would have been a home run in every other ballpark but Coors Field, and with a four-game hitting streak, he’s swinging a good bat at the moment.

As a bonus, Vientos and the Mets will face Michael Lorenzen on Tuesday. While he has just five career at-bats against Lorenzen, Vientos is 4 for 5 with a home run against him. While that’s a small sample size, it’s a good indicator that Vientos is set up for a big game, especially as his bat is starting to heat up.

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Yandy Diaz Anytime Home Run (+710) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The oddsmakers obviously view Diaz as a long shot to hit a home run on Tuesday against Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays. Perhaps they don’t realize that Diaz is 7 for 12 with a home run in his career against Gausman. It’s not the biggest sample size, but that kind of success against one pitcher is hard to ignore.

It’s also hard to ignore how well Diaz has swung the bat this season. His five home runs don’t necessarily stand out, but Diaz is batting .322. Meanwhile, Gausman has allowed five home runs this season, including three over his last two starts. Four of those five home runs against Gausman have been hit by right-handed hitters, which also plays into Diaz’s favor.

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