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Best MLB Bets This Weekend | MLB Picks, September 30-October 1

Written by: Jay Sanin
Published September 30, 2023
13 min read
MLB Best Bets This Weekend September 30-October 1, 2023

The final weekend of the MLB regular season has arrived, and there are several intriguing games to look forward to. There are also several betting angles worth taking going into this weekend’s games, from a crucial matchup to the playoff races out West, to some games without any playoff impact.

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out other MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities

My Pick: Under 7.5 (-122)

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Our first MLB bet for the weekend comes in the massive contest in the AL West between the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners. Both of these teams are separated by just a couple of games, and are two of the three teams fighting for two playoff berths remaining for AL West teams. But rather than taking a side, we like the game to go under the total of 7.5 runs on Friday night.

We should see Andrew Heaney on the mound for the Rangers against Luis Castillo of the Mariners. Castillo has been incredible this season for the Mariners, posting a 14-8 record and a 3.20 ERA. He was one of the last pitchers to remain in the AL Cy Young discussion alongside Gerrit Cole, and the Mariners ace should be able to limit the Texas lineup with Castillo on the hill.

Heaney should pitch respectably in this game as well, as he faces a Mariners team that is near the middle of the pack in runs scored this season. Seattle has had a tendency to tense up in big games offensively dating back to last year’s postseason. We could see that again here as the Mariners need to win this game to keep their postseason hopes alive going into the final day of the regular season.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

My Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-111)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have already clinched the NL West, and are locked into the MLB postseason. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants have already been eliminated from playoff contention. But just because this game does not have any postseason implications does not mean that there is not some betting value on the game, as we should see the Dodgers win and cover the runline in the Bay Area.

Clayton Kershaw is on the mound for the Dodgers in this game, which should yield positive results for LA. Kershaw is 13-4 on the season with a 2.42 ERA, and would be considered one of the favorites for the NL Cy Young in most years, had Blake Snell not run away with it in the second half of this season. Here, he should be able to stifle the Giants lineup in a game that has more significance than one might think for the Dodgers.

While Los Angeles is locked into the second position in the National League playoff hierarchy, this game matters for reasons that go beyond the standings. The Dodgers are set for a fight this postseason, as they are going to need to be at their best to topple the Atlanta Braves late in the playoffs. Games like this are important for momentum building for a team hoping to accomplish that goal later on.

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

My Pick: Over 8 (-108)

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On the final day of the MLB regular season, the New York Yankees will take on the Kansas City Royals. The Yankees and Royals have nothing important to play for in this game, as both have been eliminated from playoff contention. But we should see an entertaining game in Kansas City, as we like this contest to go over the total of eight runs.

The starting pitching matchup in this game is far from desirable for both teams, as Michael King and Zack Greinke take the hill for their respective clubs. King is 4-7 on the year, while Greinke is 1-15 with a 5.18 ERA. Look for some offensive fireworks from both teams, as they should end the season with a fun affair that sends them into their offseasons with at least some kind of positive feeling even if their seasons have been failures.

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Jay Sanin

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Jay Sanin is a sports bettor and writer from New York. He has been handicapping since the moment he was old enough to gamble legally, with his specialties being niche sports like the WNBA and XFL. He’s been told he has a voice for radio. He also has a face for radio.

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