Best MLB Bets Today: Division Rivals Square off on Monday

Best MLB Bets Today: Brewers vs. Reds (6:40 PM EST)

Reds ML (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

This matchup features two teams with their hopes set on capturing the NL Central title. The division is expected to be one of the most competitive in the league. While the division won’t be won during this early-season series, it could cost the loser a badly needed tiebreaker. That lends some importance to tonight’s game, and we’re going to profit from it.

The reason we like the Reds is their massive advantage on the mound. They’ll be starting 26-year-old Graham Ashcroft tonight. The young pitcher had a rough first two seasons, but he looked sharp in his first start of 2024. Ashcraft went six innings on the road against the Phillies, allowing two earned runs (both home runs) on four hits and one walk. The strong start continues a trend for Ashcraft in his career. In his rookie season with the Reds, he has a 1.69 ERA in the first month of the season. Last year, he posted a 2.10 in the first month. He hasn’t done well against the Brewers in his career, but he hasn’t faced them early in the season before. We think he does enough to get the win tonight.

The Brewers will have Aaron Ashby on the hill against the Reds. The 25-year-old had a lot of high expectations but has come up short early in his career. Then, an injury struck in the form of a torn labrum. He made three minor league starts at the end of the season but went 0-3 with a 15.43 ERA and 3.00 WHIP. Ashby made one start in AAA this season and was hit hard, allowing three runs on four hits and two walks across five innings. He also was called for a balk. 

While Ashcraft’s struggles against the Brewers give prevent us from taking the run line, we see Ashby getting crushed by a great Reds lineup, leading to a win.

Bet on Reds ML at BetMGM

Best MLB Bets Today: Astros vs. Rangers (8:05 PM EST)

Astros ML (-145 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Houston is off to another slow start to the season. They were swept by the Yankees at home but bounced back to take two out of three against the Jays. They were crushed by a combined 17-4 since in the first two games of the series with the Rangers. Texas has been playing better, but we see the Astros getting the win tonight.

Houston will have Framber Valdez starting tonight. The veteran has a 7-5 record and a 2.90 ERA against the Rangers, though they hit him hard in the playoffs. The lefty had a rough first start against a hot Yankees team, but he bounced back to deliver a gem against the Blue Jays. Valdez threw for 7 2/3 innings scoreless innings, allowing six hits without walking a batter. As good as the Texas lineup is, we see Valdez delivering another strong performance tonight.

We like Valdez to do well, but we are locking in the bet because of Rangers’ starter Andrew Heaney. The 32-year-old has had an average career, bouncing between the rotation and bullpen over the last few seasons. He picked up a loss in his first start of the season, throwing 4 2/3 innings while allowing three runs (1 earned) on four hits. He’ll be facing a much bigger challenge tonight as he squares off against a Houston team that has a combined .289 batting average against him.

Both of these offenses are loaded with talent, but we see the edge on the mound leading to an Astros win.

Bet on Astros ML at BetMGM

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