Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, April 11

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

• Time: 9:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes vs Merrill Kelly
• Moneyline: Brewers -140 | Diamondbacks +115
• Runline: Brewers -1.5 (+115) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-140)
• Total: Over 8 (-120) | Under 8 (EVEN)

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

My Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (+115)

Corbin Burnes is on the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers in this game, hence their status as a favorite on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The problem with that is the fact that Burns has really struggled early this season, giving up 10 earned runs in 9.1 innings of work thus far. While Burnes was among the favorites to win the NL Cy Young before the season started, he has not looked anything like a Cy Young contender with his play on the field thus far.

Of course, it is not likely for Burnes to get completely lit up again in this game, but the Diamondback's pitching staff will outperform him. That will start with Merrill Kelly, who has a golden opportunity to deliver his best start of the season so far. Kelly has faced the Los Angeles Dodgers in both of his first two starts of this season. He will face a much more beatable opponent in the Brew Crew here and should take advantage.

The Arizona bullpen ranks third in Major League Baseball in strikeouts so far this season, racking up 48 strikeouts on the season. Given that the Diamondbacks have played the Dodgers so often this season, that number is even more impressive in the proper context. The back end of the Diamondbacks bullpen will step up again to deliver a win over Burnes and the Brewers on Tuesday night.

Seattle Mariners vs Chicago Cubs

• Time: 7:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Chris Flexen vs Hayden Wesneski
• Moneyline: Mariners -110 | Cubs -110
• Runline: Mariners -1.5 (+140) | Cubs +1.5 (-170)
• Total: Over 9.5 (-115) | Under 9.5 (-105)

Odds courtesy of PointsBet

My Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-110)

Next up, give us the Chicago Cubs to win at home against the Seattle Mariners at the famous Wrigley Field. The Cubs won the first game of this series in 10 innings, holding the Mariners to just two runs in that contest. Here, the Cubs should be able to take advantage of the fact that Mariners starting pitcher Chris Flexen is making his first road start of the season.

The Mariners have lost both games in which Flexen has pitched in this season, including a loss in his last start against the Los Angeles Angels. His splits were just about even between home and road last year, though he went 3-5 away from home on the year. Seattle’s woes with Flexen on the hill will continue here, thanks to a Cubs team that has been better than advertised early in the year.

Going into this contest, the Cubs are hitting 40 points better than the Mariners for the season, batting .269 as a team compared to Seattle’s .229 team batting average. Eric Hosmer has been a huge reason for that, as he is hitting .320 and also leads the Cubs with seven RBI. Look for Hosmer to make an impact in this game as well, to help the Cubs improve to 6-4 on this young season.

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets

• Time: 7:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Ryan Weathers vs David Peterson
• Moneyline: Padres (+120) | Mets (-145)
• Runline: Padres +1.5 (-165) | Mets -1.5 (+140)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (EVEN)

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

My Pick: Padres Moneyline (+120)

Both of these teams enter Tuesday night with 6-5 records, but we like the San Diego Padres to remain above the .500 mark with a win in this matchup. San Diego was shut out by the Mets in a 5-0 game on Monday night, but this game should go differently, as the Padres should be able to take advantage of the starting pitching situation for the Mets.

In this contest, David Peterson is set to get the start for New York, as he enters this game winless on the season with an ERA of 6.00. The Mets have lost both of the games that Peterson has started this season, including his last start where he gave up five earned runs in four innings of work against the Milwaukee Brewers. Peterson’s struggles will continue in this contest against a Padres team that won a series with the Atlanta Braves before going to New York.

If the Padres do win this game, Xander Bogaerts will be a huge reason why. He is leading the Padres in batting average and home runs this season. Bogaerts already has a home run against left handed pitching this season, and is a prime candidate to hit another one here against a struggling left-handed arm.

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