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The Marlins are slight underdogs on Wednesday, which is part of the reason why they hold such good value. The Marlins have been a little sluggish offensively during their West Coast road trip. But they have some momentum and a chance to win this series after beating San Diego 3-0 on Tuesday. The Padres are also just 2-4 in their last six games and a mere 30-29 this year as home favorites. As only a slight favorite on Wednesday, they aren’t a safe pick, giving Miami plenty of value.
It’s also worth taking a chance on the Marlins with Sandy Alcantara on the mound. He hasn’t had a great year, but he’s pitched better lately, lowering his ERA from 4.70 to 4.11 over his last five starts. Plus, the Marlins have won his last two starts and three of his last five starts. He’s gone at least six innings deep in eight straight starts and has two complete games in his last five starts. In other words, we’re starting to see signs of the old Alcantara. Against a San Diego lineup that’s averaging 2.7 runs per game over its last six games and has been held to one run or less three times during that stretch, Alcantara is poised for a great outing on Wednesday.
Frankly, Alcanta is a better bet right now than Seth Lugo, who starts for San Diego. To be fair, Lugo tossed six scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks in his last start. But he still owns a 6.28 ERA during the month of August. He’s allowed at least two runs in six of his last seven starts, which may not sound like much but could be enough with Alcantara on the mound. In a game that figures to be a pitcher’s duel, the Marlins hold a lot more value with Alcantara on the mound, especially as a slight underdog.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
The Yankees are in the midst of a historic losing streak, losing their ninth straight game on Tuesday. Of course, they are bound to break out of that slump at some point. But that doesn’t mean it's happening on Wednesday, especially with Luis Severino on the mound. Keep in mind that the Nationals have been playing good baseball lately, winning eight of their last 10 games. They’ve taken series from the Red Sox and Phillies and now have a chance to secure a series win against the Yankees.
As mentioned, Severino starting doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in the Yankees. He owns a 7.98 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP on the season with his ERA at 10.80 during his three months in August. The Yankees have lost his last four starts and are 1-7 with him on the mound since the start of July. In those eight starts, Severino has allowed at least three earned runs seven times and five runs or more in four of the eight games. The Nats don’t need to have a potent lineup to do damage against Severino with the way he’s looked lately. That being said, Washington is averaging 5.6 runs per game over its last 10 games. With almost everyone in Washington’s lineup never facing Severino before, that could actually favor the Nats given Severino’s struggles.
On the other side, the Yankees have been dreadful offensively during their losing streak. They have scored just 21 total runs in nine games. The Yanks have been held to three runs or less in seven of those nine games and one run or less five times in nine games. On Wednesday, they’ll be facing MacKenzie Gore, who allowed one hit over 6.1 innings against the Red Sox in his last start. He’s now allowed two runs or less in three of his last five starts and should be in good shape against a struggling lineup that has never faced him before and has only faced a left-handed starter a league-low 22 times this year. That surely gives McKenzie and the Nats an advantage on Wednesday.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
As usual, we’re going to have to bet on the Dodgers to cover the spread to get any value out of them. But that’s not asking too much since Los Angeles has the fifth-best ATS record in the majors this year. They also have the fourth-best record ATS as a favorite and cover as a road favorite nearly 50% of the time. More importantly, the Dodgers are 17-3 during the month of August with 14 of those 17 wins coming by at least two runs. With Clayton Kershaw on the mound, this is a reasonably safe pick against a lackluster Cleveland team.
Kershaw has been good all season, posting a 1.09 ERA during his five starts in June before going on the IL. But he’s still looked sharp in his two starts since coming back from the IL. He’s pitched 10 innings across those two starts, yielding two runs on six hits. Oddly enough, both runs came on a pair of solo homers. That’s a sign that he’s now allowing much traffic on the base paths. Despite scoring eight runs in their win on Tuesday, the Guardians haven’t been clicking offensively lately. They scored just 10 total runs during a four-game weekend series against Detroit’s pitching staff and have been held to three runs or less in five of their last seven games. That doesn’t sound like a team that’s ready to do much damage against Kershaw.
Meanwhile, the Guardians are asking Xzavion Curry to cool off one of the hottest lineups in baseball. Curry has recently made a smooth transition from the bullpen to the rotation. He’s been able to handle some of the weaker lineups he’s faced. But he also gave up five runs over five innings when he faced the Rays earlier this month. It could be a similar story against Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and a stacked Los Angeles lineup. To be fair, the Dodgers have scored three runs or less in five straight games. Yet, they are still averaging 4.4 runs per game over their last 10 games. They can wake up at any time, and coming off a loss against a rookie pitcher is a good opportunity for that to happen. Plus, with Kershaw on the mound, it may not take that many runs for the Dodgers to earn a comfortable win over the Guards on Wednesday.
Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.More info on Bryan Zarpentine
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