Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, June 28

Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles

• Time: 7:05 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Luke Weaver (CIN) vs Kyle Gibson (BAL)
• Moneyline: Reds +143  - Orioles -170
• Run Line: Reds +1.5 (-135) - Orioles -1.5 (+115)
• Total: Over 9.5 (-110) - Under 9.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Orioles ML

Not long ago, the Reds were the hottest team in baseball, but they’ve now lost three of four despite getting a win on Tuesday to set up Wednesday’s rubber match with the Orioles. The problem is that they’ll be relying on Luke Weaver, who will be opposed by Kyle Gibson. Plus, the Orioles are 25-15 at home this season, so back-to-back losses at Camden Yards are a rare occurrence, especially with the Reds still having a losing record against teams that are over .500.

Somehow, the Reds have won the last five games that Weaver has started despite his 6.86 ERA. Weaver actually owns a 10.80 ERA in June, yet Cincinnati is 4-0 in his starts this month, including wins over the Braves, Astros, and Dodgers. But with Cincinnati’s winning streak over, the team’s incredible luck with Weaver on the mound surely must be over as well. To be fair, the Orioles aren’t in a great offensive groove at the moment. However, they did score 10 runs in Monday’s win over the Reds. Against a pitcher like Weaver, Baltimore’s lineup has the bats to do some damage.

On the other side, the Orioles have lost three of the four games that Gibson has started this month. However, in the last six games Baltimore has lost with Gibson on the mound, the Orioles have scored a total of six runs. He’s been solid for most of the season despite a modest 4.30 ERA. He just needs a little bit of run support. Even if Gibson isn’t perfect, the Orioles are likely to finally give him some run support against Weaver, which should allow the Orioles to take the rubber game of this series on Wednesday.

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates

• Time: 7:05 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Blake Snell (SD) vs Mitch Keller (PIT)
• Moneyline: Padres -165 - Pirates +140
• Run Line: Padres -1.5 (+100) - Pirates +1.5 (-120)
• Total: Over 8 (-105) - Under 8 (-115)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Padres ML

The Padres haven’t been a good team to bet on all season. They are even 10-11 as road favorites this year, which is the fourth-worst record in baseball as a road favorite. However, San Diego has become an excellent bet with Blake Snell on the mound. In fairness, the Pirates will have their own ace Mitch Keller on the mound. But the Pirates are also 2-12 in their last 14 games and a modest 10-14 as home underdogs this year. It’s unlikely the Pirates will suddenly get going against Snell, making the Padres a safe bet in this game.

How good has Snell been lately? Well, he’s allowed one run on 10 hits in June, covering 25 innings across four starts. That gives him an ERA of 0.36 this month. Plus, in his last two starts of May, Snell allowed one run on seven hits over 11 innings, so he’s been historically good for a full month. Teams aren’t coming close to getting the best of him. Meanwhile, the Pirates are averaging 2.8 runs per game over their last 14 games, getting shut out four times during that stretch, so they are particularly vulnerable to a terrible offensive showing against Snell.

It’ll be up to Keller to match Snell. Despite being 8-3 on the season, Pittsburgh is 1-3 in his starts in June, including a loss to the lowly A’s. Keller has also had problems in his career against some of San Diego’s hitters. The current San Diego roster is a combined 20 for 53 (.377) against Keller with an OPS of .940. Despite the team’s offensive struggles this year, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. are having good years. Plus, Manny Machado and Ha-Seong Kim have started to heat up, which should allow the Padres to provide Snell with enough run support to get a win against the struggling Pirates.

Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers

• Time: 8:05 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Joey Wentz (DET) vs Dane Dunning (TEX)
• Moneyline: Tigers +185  - Rangers -225
• Run Line: Tigers +1.5 (-105) - Rangers -1.5 (-115)
• Total: Over 9.5 (-115) - Under 9.5 (-105)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Rangers -1.5

On paper, this is a lopsided matchup, but there is some value in Texas covering the run line against the Tigers. The Rangers are the second-best team in baseball against the spread this year, including a 28-21 ATS record as a favorite. They are also 25-14 straight up at home while the lowly Tigers are 16-23 on the road and 11-27 against teams with a winning record. Fittingly, Texas is 28-11 against teams that are .500 or under. This matchup is lopsided, and so should the score in Wednesday’s game.

Dane Dunning will get the start for Texas. He’s been a key part of the team’s success this year, going 6-1 with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Even after starting the year in the bullpen, Dunning has made a smooth transition to the starting rotation. He’ll face a problematic Detroit lineup that’s scored three runs or less in five of the team’s last seven games. The Tigers are also missing Riley Greene and Akil Baddoo, who are on the IL right now. That deprives them of two of their most productive hitters this season while creating holes in the Detroit outfield. Outside of Matt Vierling and Miguel Cabrera, most of Detroit’s key players are in a slump right now, setting up Dunning for a strong outing on Wednesday.

The Tigers will try to counter Dunning and the Rangers with Joey Wentz. However, the lefty is 1-8 with a 6.72 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP this year. The Tigers are 1-6 in his last seven appearances, losing all six of those games by multiple runs. To be fair, Wentz only allowed one run when he faced the Rangers earlier this season. But he also scattered seven hits over 4.1 innings, which doesn’t bode well for his second start against the Texas lineup. The Rangers have scored at least four runs in seven of their last 10 games and might be capable of doing even more damage against Wentz and an unimpressive Detroit bullpen. Marcus Semien and Ezequiel Duran have been particularly hot lately and should be able to help the Rangers to a comfortable win on Wednesday.

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