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Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, October 23

Written by: Michael Savio
Published October 23, 2023
11 min read
Phillies vs Astros Game 4

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. See other MLB Sportsbook for more betting opportunities!

My Pick: Phillies -1.5

The Phillies lead the NLCS 3-2 and will have a great chance to close things out at home tonight. They will have a red-hot pitcher on the mound playing in front of a Philly crowd that clearly rattled the D-Backs in the first two games. That will help support their impressive offense, which has scored at least five runs in four of their five NLCS games. They posted a whopping 15 runs in their two home games at the start of the series, and we see another considerable number being put up this evening.

We are confident taking the run line or the moneyline thanks to Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.46 ERA) being on the mound for Philly. The veteran didn’t have a great season but has been incredible during the playoffs. Nola is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA across three postseason starts (18 ⅔), all of which came in the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park. One of those starts came in Game 2 against the D-Backs, with the veteran allowing three hits and zero walks across six shutout innings. 

Arizona will turn to Merrill Kelly (12-8, 3.29 ERA) to take the hill in tonight’s elimination game. The 35-year-old had the best season of his career and was fantastic in the NLDS by allowing three hits and two walks across 6 ⅓ innings. Unfortunately, things fell apart on the road in Philly during Game 2 when he allowed four earned runs (3 HRs) over 5 ⅔ innings. Things won’t get any easier as he returns to Philadelphia for what should be one of the wildest atmospheres in sports.

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

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My Pick: Astros ML

The ALCS all comes down to tonight’s Game 7 matchup in Houston. While the Rangers demolished Houston last night, the Astros are set up to clinch another World Series appearance at home tonight. One big reason for that is Houston’s experience in games like these. The Astros have been to four World Series since 2017, winning two of them. That impressive run has been filled with a lot of elimination games. Conversely, the Rangers are in the playoffs for the first time since 2016. With a trip to the World Series on the line, we are taking the team that has done it before.

Another reason we love this bet is that the Rangers will trot Max Scherzer (13-6, 3.77 ERA) out to the mound. The 39-year-old has regressed this season and is no longer the reliable arm he once was. Injury led him to miss most of September and the first two rounds of the playoffs. He returned in Game 3 of the ALCS but was lit up for five runs across four innings. While some may chalk those struggles up to his absence, Scherzer was also hammered by the Astros in September for seven runs over three innings. Add Scherzer’s struggles to the team’s questionable bullpen, and you can see why we are locking in the Houston moneyline.

The Astros will have Cristian Javier (10-5, 4.56 ERA) making the start tonight. The 26-year-old struggled with consistency during the regular season but has looked great in the postseason. He is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA across two starts (10 ⅔ innings), allowing a combined four hits. One of those starts came against the Rangers, where he allowed two runs on three hits over 5 ⅔ innings. Javier has been far better at home, where he has a 3.71 ERA (5.42 ERA). He isn’t an ace, but he is good enough to keep Texas to 2-3 runs and allow the Houston offense to take off.

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AUTHOR

Michael Savio

485 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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