Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, September 14

Florida Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers

• Time: 2:10 PM EST
• Starting Pitchers: Eury Perez (MIA) vs Adrian Houser (MIL)
• Moneyline: Marlins (-112) | Brewers (-104)
• Run Line: Marlins -1.5 (+146) | Brewers +1.5 (-176)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-102) | Under 8.5 (-120)

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. See different MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!  

My Pick: Marlins ML 

The Brewers and Marlins will meet once again this afternoon, with both teams looking to secure their spot in the postseason. We see the Marlins getting the much-needed win in the Brew Town this afternoon, thanks to having a significant advantage on the mound. The Miami offense hasn’t produced much this season, but they won’t have to do much to support Eury Perez. They should receive plenty of opportunities as they face a struggling Brewers pitcher today.

Eury Perez (5-4, 2.90 ERA) has significantly impacted the Miami rotation. The 20-year-old rookie has cooled off in the second half of the season, thanks to matchups with some of the league’s top offenses. That will not be the case tonight, as they face a Brewers offense that has been inconsistent all season. The Marlins will also have the advantage of a fresh bullpen after a fantastic start by Braxton Garrett last night. Between Perez and the Miami bullpen, they should have no problem getting a critical road win today.

The Brewers will turn to Adrian Houser (5-4, 4.58 ERA) this afternoon. The 30-year-old started the season strong but has been awful since the end of July. He has a 6.31 ERA across his last six starts but has been out the last couple of weeks due to an injury. He will be making his return tonight, but we don’t expect him to suddenly turn things around. The Brewers used a lot of relievers last night, which will cost them when Houser gets in trouble early today.

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays

• Time: 7:07 PM EST
• Starting Pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs Kevin Gausman (TOR)
• Moneyline: Rangers (+130) | Blue Jays (-155)
• Run Line: Rangers +1.5 (-162) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+136)
• Total: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

My Pick: Rangers ML 

This is the best matchup of the day, with two great AL teams meeting as they fight for playoff seeding. While the Blue Jays have been playing well, the Rangers have finally awoken from their slumber. Their offense has bounced back to demolish Toronto as they extended their win streak to five last night. The Rangers are neck-and-neck with the Astros and Mariners in the AL West, but neither of those teams has been better than the Rangers were for most of the season. They are playing at that level once again, which is bad news for Toronto. 

The good news for the Blue Jays is they will have Kevin Gausman (11-8, 3.28 ERA) starting. The 32-year-old has been fantastic for the Blue Jays this season, but things have been a bit rocky lately. While he dominated the Royals in his last start, he has a 4.48 ERA over his previous five starts. That doesn’t bode well tonight, as he will face a Rangers team whose offense has finally rebounded from their late summer slump. While the ace managed to shut the Rangers down once this season, we think the Texas lineup gets revenge tonight.

The bad news for the Blue Jays is that the Rangers will have Nathan Eovaldi (11-4, 2.90 ERA) on the mound. The veteran righty is having one of the best seasons of his career and has become the team’s defacto ace after Jacob deGrom was injured. Eovaldi missed all of August with an injury but has made two starts since. He was on a tight pitch count in both starts, combining to throw 3 ⅔ innings. He looked much better in his last outing, and we expect him to build on that tonight.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets

• Time: 4:10 PM EST
• Starting Pitchers: Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs Kodai Senga (NYM)
• Moneyline: Mets (-125) | Diamondbacks (+105)
• Run Line: Mets -1.5 (+175) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-210)
• Total: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)

Odds Courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook.

My Pick: Under 7.5 

While both teams have talented offenses, the pitching matchup is stealing the show in the Big Apple today. Both have been fantastic in 2023, and they will have no problem containing these offenses today. The offenses they will face have been cold of late, with the Mets and D-backs both averaging 3.3 runs over their last six games. That would be good enough to hit the under tonight, especially considering the two pitchers that will be taking the mound.

Kodai Senga (10-7, 3.07 ERA) has been one of the few bright spots the Mets have had this season. The former Nippon Baseball League star has had six consecutive quality starts, posting a 2.59 ERA. Senga dominated the D-backs in July, allowing one run on four hits across eight innings. That came on the road, but he has been at his best at home, where he has a 2.52 ERA. While Arizona has some great hitters, they won’t be able to figure out Senga today.

Merrill Kelly (11-6, 3.16 ERA) will take the hill for the Diamondbacks tonight. The 34-year-old is having a career year thanks to a fantastic second half of the season. He has a 1.42 ERA across two starts this month, one of which came against a good Chicago offense. While Kelly hasn’t been quite as good as Senga, he will face a more manageable challenge against a Mets lineup that ranks in the bottom ten of the league in batting average and runs scored.