Best MLB Prop Bets This Weekend | MLB Player Props August 12-13

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals

Seven Matz Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-112 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

While Steven Matz’s (3-7, 3.91 ERA) season stats aren’t great, he has been one of the hottest pitchers in the league since June 3. The starter has a 1.96 ERA and has allowed two or fewer runs in all but one game since then. That success has translated to improved strikeout totals, and he has struck out more than five batters in three of his last four starts. Matz has also struck out more than five in his previous three road starts. While he hasn’t faced too many great offenses during that stretch, he has dominated many far better than the Royals.

Kansas City’s offense has been a nightmare in 2023. They rank twenty-ninth in the league in runs scored, twenty-first in batting average, twenty-ninth in on-base percentage, twenty-seventh in OPS, and eighteenth in strikeouts. KC jumped on a struggling Adam Wainright last night, so they are due for a quiet day at the plate today.  

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Zac Gallen To Record a Win (+135 at PointsBet Sportsbook)

The Diamondbacks Cinderella season appears to be at an end, as they have now lost nine straight games and are out of the NL West race. While we don’t see the Diamondbacks rallying this season, they are breaking their losing streak with their ace on the mound tonight. One reason we are taking this bet is Zac Gallen’s (11-5, 3.37 ERA) dominance at home this season. The 28-year-old has a 1.96 ERA and a 9-1 record in Phoenix this year. The Padres' offense continues to disappoint, so expect Gallen to put up another impressive home start tonight. 

Speaking of the San Diego offense, how disappointing they have been cannot be overstated. Even with Fernando Tatis Jr back and playing well, the team has failed to live up to the high expectations from the offseason. They certainly have the talent, but they have not been able to generate runs consistently. The Padres have been held to two or fewer runs in three of their last five games. We see that number going up tonight with Gallen on the mound.

The final reason we are booking this bet is Padres’ starter Rich Hill (7-11, 5.09 ERA). The 43-year-old appears to be at the end of his career as he has his highest ERA of the last 12 seasons. A move to San Diego at the trade deadline did not help, as he surrendered six runs across three innings in his first start for them. Arizona shelled Hill last month, allowing seven hits and five runs over four innings. The Diamondbacks' offense has cooled off, but they are good enough to jump on Hill tonight. 

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox

Eloy Jimenez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is our favorite long-shot prop bet of the weekend. Eloy Jimenez (.283 BA, 14 HR, 50 RBI) has not been as good as the Sox hoped, but he has been seeing the ball well over the last month. He posted a .342 batting average in July and had one of his most impressive games against the Brewers last night. Jimenez went 3-5 with a home run against Corbin Burnes in the loss to the Crew. The White Sox designated hitter owns a .308 batting average at home this season, so we love his chances to make solid contact again tonight.

In addition to his impressive numbers over the last month, Jimenez is 3-3 with a home run against Woodruff in his career. That isn’t a big sample size, but it should give the 26-year-old the confidence he needs to jump on Woodruff tonight, especially since it will be just his fourth start of the season.

Though he missed four months this season, Woodruff looked sharp in his first start back. He allowed two runs over five innings while striking out nine. However, the veteran starter allowed two home runs in that start. There is an excellent chance Woodruff regresses tonight, and we think Jimenez will take advantage.