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This is our favorite prop bet for this weekend. Alec Bohm (.280 BA, 9 HR, 57 RBI) has been on fire over the last few weeks. He kept that streak going last night with an RBI double. He has now totaled more than one base in seven of his previous nine games, and that run will continue this afternoon. Bohm has seen Marlins’ starter Braxton Garrett a couple of times, going 2-4 with a home run. We think that history and his recent hot streak make this the safest prop bet of the weekend.
Speaking of Braxton Garrett (4-2, 3.61 ERA), he is another reason we love Bohm’s chances to get multiple bases tonight. The 25-year-old is having an excellent year for Miami but has been hit hard at home. Garrett has a 5.27 ERA across eight home games (7 starts), with opponents posting a .276 average against him. The lefty has not seen the Phillies yet this season and was walloped in his lone start against them in 2022. Considering that he will be facing a red-hot Bohm, we think these issues will come back to haunt him tonight, leading to this bet paying out early.
This line will probably move quickly, so be sure to lock your bet in early. Gerrit Cole (8-2, 2.79 ERA) has been fantastic for the Yankees this season. The ace had a 2.40 ERA in June and started July strong by allowing two runs over six innings against St. Louis. However, Cole’s strikeout totals are down. He has only struck out more than eight batters twice, with the last occurrence coming on May 7. It’s not surprising to see his strikeout numbers go down as he ages, and we see it as a trend that will be continuing.
While we have established Cole’s impressive season, he hasn’t been as overwhelming as he was to begin the season. It’s not just the strikeout totals but also his ability to go past six innings. One reason for that is he is allowing far too many hits. He has allowed 15 hits over his last two starts (10 ⅔ innings), and his WHIP has crept up to 1.14. While we don’t think he will get shelled today, we do not see him going deep enough into the game to get to nine strikeouts.
The Cubs' offense isn’t great, but they have been better than expected. They have scored the thirteenth most runs in the league, and the lineup has been hot of late. One reason for their recent success has been their plate discipline, which has cut down on their strikeouts. We don’t know if they’ll be able to do much against Cole, but they will put enough men on base to prevent him from going deep.
Don’t look now, but former MVP Christian Yelich (.286 BA, 11 HR, 45 RBI, 21 SB) is back! He posted a .320 batting average in June and has been even better early in July. While the boost to his average and steal totals is nice, his power is also starting to return. Injuries have limited Yelich’s ability to go deep over the last couple of seasons, but it appears he is finally returning to form with two home runs already this month. The star has also been better in day games, with a .317 batting average and six home runs. Expect those totals to improve today, especially with the Reds sending a struggling pitcher to the mound.
Luke Weaver (2-2, 6.72 ERA) is coming off one of his better starts, but that isn’t saying much. The 29-year-old has been hit hard of late, posting a 10.29 ERA across five June starts. Weaver has just one quality start this season and owns a 1.59 WHIP. While the righty’s home run numbers have been down lately, he struggled badly with them to begin the season. He has given up the eighth-highest home run total on the season and will add to that total against a red-hot Christian Yelich today.
Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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