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There is no better RBI prop in baseball right now than Olson. He leads the majors in RBIs with 107, which is 17 more than the next closest player, who happens to be his teammate Ozzie Albies. Olson is also hitting .400 over his last eight games, so he’s getting hits and driving in runs at the same time. Keep in mind that he benefits from players like Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. getting on base in front of him, increasing his chances of getting at least one RBI every game.
Over his last 10 games, Olson has 15 RBIs. More importantly, he’s recorded at least one RBI in eight of those 10 games. It’s a little surprising that sportsbooks are still giving positive odds on Olson getting an RBI. But while that’s still happening, there is tremendous value because there is far better than a 50% chance that Olson will tally another RBI on Monday when the Braves face the last-place Yankees.
While Garrett has been a key part of Miami’s rotation this season, most of his best starts came during the first half of the season. The lefty posted a 5.92 ERA over his five starts in July and has continued to look a little more hittable. Keep in mind that since the end of June, his ERA has moved from 3.53 to 4.08. In fact, he’s allowed at least six hits in six of his last seven starts, so everything is trending toward him giving up at least six hits on Monday.
Garrett will be facing a Houston lineup that’s at full strength and has excelled since Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez returned from the IL. Despite being held in check on Sunday, the Astros scored 11 runs on both Friday and Saturday this past weekend. In their last nine games, the Astros have scored at least seven runs six times. This is a red-hot lineup that should be able to collect at least half a dozen hits before they chase Garrett from Monday’s game.
As mentioned, Garrett could have a hard time against a red-hot Houston lineup on Monday. Within the Houston lineup, Altuve, Tucker, and Bregman are all in the midst of a hot streak on top of being accomplished hitters. All three are 1 for 3 in their careers against Garrett, so they’ve all season Miami’s starter before and had some success. That makes a same-game parlay in which all three get a hit a viable option.
Over the last week, Altuve might be the hottest hitter in baseball. He’s 13 for 25 (.520) over his last six games, so not getting a hit on Monday with a lefty starting for the Marlins would be a shock. Obviously, Tucker faces a slightly tougher matchup against Garrett. But he's actually hit better against lefties this year, batting .340 against them. He’s also eight for 24 (.333) over his last six games with four extra-base hits, so he’s locked in at the moment. Likewise, Bregman is 10 for 23 (.435) over his last six games. He has four multiple-hit games during that stretch and has gone hitless just once in those six games, making him a safe bet to get a hit on Monday.
Facing Oakland’s lineup is always a good reason to throw support behind a pitcher. While the A’s haven’t been as terrible as you might expect when it comes to striking out, they still rank top 10 in baseball in that category. As a team, they are averaging a little over nine strikeouts per game, which is why Mikolas has a good chance of reaching six strikeouts on Monday.
Granted, Mikolas hasn’t had a big year when it comes to strikeouts. But he’s recorded 12 over his last 14 innings, putting together quality starts against the Rays and Twins in August. In addition to coming on strong, Mikolas has been able to dominate this season when he’s faced weak offensive teams. Needless to say, the A’s fit that description, which should allow Mikolas to put together a good outing on Monday and reach at least six strikeouts against a weak Oakland lineup that’s been ice-cold lately, scoring two runs or less in seven of the team’s last 10 games.
Scherzer has had an interesting season, which is what makes him an interesting pitcher to favor and fade at the same time. While he’s had some issues this season, Scherzer has come on strong over his last few starts. Plus, he’s still a pitcher who can strike out batters in bunches. To be fair, he's only hit eight strikeouts in one of his last six starts. But Scherzer did have a stretch earlier this year when he struck out at least eight in four straight starts. He’s also facing a watered-down Angels lineup that ranks in the top 10 in strikeouts, so this figures to be a high strikeout outing for Scherzer.
At the same time, Scherzer has been surprisingly hittable when he’s not striking out batters. Over his last nine starts, he’s yielded at least six hits on six occasions. Keep in mind that Oakland is one of the teams held under that number. The Angels aren’t quite that bad, so they should have some success against Scherzer. The 39-year-old has been just erratic enough to fade in this spot, especially with plus odds on over 5.5 hits.
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Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.More info on Bryan Zarpentine
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