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Despite missing all of last season and the early part of this season, Tatis is showing no signs of rust. He’s batting .286 with an OPS of .912 thus far. While those numbers are a little below his career averages, Tatis is still putting together a strong season. He’s been even better lately, hitting .400 with an OPS of 1.317 during the month of June, making him an excellent candidate to total multiple bases against the Giants on Monday.
Tatis has totaled at least two bases in seven of his last nine games and 11 times in his 16 games this month. He’s had five multi-hit games in his last nine games and is always a threat to get an extra-base hit, giving him multiple ways to reach two total bases. Meanwhile, he won’t be facing one of San Francisco’s top starters, as the Giants are using Ryan Walker as an opener in what figures to be a bullpen game. That should give Tatis plenty of favorable matchups on Monday, increasing the likelihood that he’s able to get multiple hits or an extra-base hit.
It’s hard to ignore this much value for one of the worst pitchers in baseball having a bad start. How bad has Lyles been this season? Well, the Royals are 0-14 in the games that he’s started. Also, he’s 0-11 with a 6.89 ERA. He’s only had three starts this season that he hasn’t allowed over 3.5 earned runs, and two of those three starts came in April.
It doesn’t matter that the Tigers aren’t the most potent offensive team. Lyles has struggled against every team he’s faced this season, including some subpar offensive teams. Actually, Detroit’s lineup has been cranking out plenty of runs lately, scoring at least five runs in seven of the team’s last eight games. That’s a good indicator that Lyles is going to keep giving up at least four runs again on Monday.
Paxton didn’t make his season debut until May, but he’s made up for the lost time by pitching well for the Red Sox since he’s been back. He’s only had one poor start of his six appearances this season and is likely to keep it going Monday against a lackluster Minnesota lineup. More importantly, Paxton has struck out 44 batters in 32 innings of work this year, which is why this is the best category to target a prop bet.
In his six starts, Paxton has struck out at least eight batters four times, including three consecutive starts. With the over/under for his strikeouts at 6.5, there is some leeway in case he isn’t quite as dominant as usual. But keep in mind that the Twins have struck out more than any other team in baseball. In fact, the Twins enter Monday with 742 strikeouts while the next closest team has 695. In other words, Paxton is a pitcher who racks up the strikeouts and will be facing a team that strikes out a lot, so the math here is quite simple.
The Diamondbacks are by no means a team that’s easy for opposing pitchers to dominate. However, they’ve cooled off lately, losing four of six games and scoring three runs or less in three of those six games. That should allow Burnes to continue his recent hot stretch. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA over his three starts in June, lowering his ERA for the season to 3.44.
More importantly, Burnes has totaled at least seven strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. The only game during that stretch that he didn’t reach seven strikeouts was the only start during that time in which Burnes didn’t pitch at least six innings. He’s going deep into games regularly, giving him time to rack up the strikeouts. At the same time, Burnes has allowed four hits or less in three of his last four starts despite going deep into games. The kicker is that the players on Arizona’s roster are a combined 11 for 72 (.153) in their careers against Burnes, so this is a lineup that he should dominate.
Even though the Giants are riding high heading into Monday’s series opener against the Padres, Wacha is the type of pitcher who can cool them off quickly. Since the start of May, Wacha has been on fire, throwing at least six shutout innings five times in eight starts. He’s allowed no more than two earned runs in all eight of those starts, completely befuddling hitters and pitching as well as he has at any point in his career.
At the same time, Wacha has allowed five hits or less in nine consecutive starts, even dating back to late April. Over his three starts in June, he’s conceded just nine total hits in 17.1 innings. He’s not even giving opposing lineups a chance to get runners on base and do any damage against him. While Brandon Crawford and Joc Pederson have gotten the better of Wacha during his career, he's never pitched like this before. Plus, it's going to take a lot more than those two hitters to turn the tide based on what Wacha has done lately, so bet on him having another great outing on Monday.
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Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.More info on Bryan Zarpentine
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