Best MLB Prop Bets Today | MLB Player Props September 4

Trea Turner over 1.5 total bases (-115 at DraftKings)

From a hitting perspective, Turner might be the best player to target on Monday. He’s arguably the hottest hitter in baseball right now with a 14-game hitting streak. Of those 14 games, Turner has had multiple hits eight times, giving him a better than 50% chance of recording multiple hits on Monday based on his recent track record. Keep in mind that he also has nine home runs and three doubles in those 14 games. Even if he’s held to one hit, Turner is averaging nearly one extra-base hit per game during this hot stretch, so there is a good chance one hit will get Turner over 1.5 total bases.

The kicker is that Turner and the Phillies are facing San Diego’s Rich Hill. For starters, Hill has a 5.26 ERA on the season, so he can be hittable at times. More importantly, Turner is 8 for 17 (.471) with three extra-base hits in his career against Turner. In other words, Turner is red-hot and facing a pitcher he’s crushed in the past, making him a relatively safe hitter to bet on to do some damage on Monday.

Triston Casas Over 0.5 Hits (-195 at DraftKings)

By no means is Casas the most obvious candidate for a hitting prop, especially with the Red Sox facing Aaron Civale on Monday. But the 23-year-old slugger has put together an impressive year, hitting .265 with 22 home runs. He’s also one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Casas has put together a seven-game hitting streak, collecting 11 hits and raising his average from .253 to .265 during that stretch.

Going back a little further, Casas has at least one hit in 10 of his last 12 games. Even when the Red Sox played 10 straight games against either the Astros or Dodgers, he had at least one hit in eight of those 10 games. For what it’s worth, Casas is 1 for 3 with a home run in his brief history against Civale. Since he’s a young player, Casas is still getting good odds to get one measly hit on Monday, far better than you’d expect for a player as hot as he is at the moment, giving him good value.

Taijuan Walker to Record Win (+215 at DraftKings)

There is far too much value to ignore for Walker to record a win. For starters, the Phillies are 8-4 in their last 12 games, so they’ve been winning plenty of games lately. On the other side, while the Padres have won three in a row, they also finished August by losing six of seven. San Diego has also lost all five games started by Rich Hill since acquiring him at the trade deadline. That makes the Phillies a good bet to take Monday’s series opener in San Diego.

As for Walker, he already has 14 wins on the season, which is tied for the third most in baseball this year. The Phillies are also 12-2 in his last 14 starts with Walker being the winning pitcher in 10 of those 12 wins. Even if Walker isn’t perfect, he rarely gets hit hard enough to leave games before completing five or six innings, putting him in a position to be eligible to win games. Given his track record for winning games this season and Philadelphia’s excellent chances on Monday, Walker to be the winning pitcher holds tremendous value.

Lucas Giolito Over 4.5 Hits, Over 2.5 ER (-125 at DraftKings)

After being claimed off waivers, Giolito will make his Guardians debut on Monday in a huge game against the Twins, who the Guards are trying to catch in the AL Central. The problem is that Giolito didn’t pitch particularly well after the Angels traded for him, which is why he was placed on waivers. A second change of scenery in a little over a month may not be the best thing for Giolito, especially in a pressure-filled game, which is why it seems like a good time to fade him.

For over 4.5 hits at nearly even odds is too much value to ignore. To be fair, Giolito has kept two of the last four teams he’s faced under that total. But including his last few starts with the White Sox, Giolito has allowed at least five hits in six of his last eight starts. It’s been a similar story with earned runs, as Giolito has allowed at least three earned runs in five of his last six starts. 

He simply hasn’t looked sharp enough lately to think those trends won’t continue. Granted, Giolito’s last start with the White Sox came against the Twins with Giolito throwing five scoreless innings. But he also scattered six hits in that game. The Twins also scored 19 runs over three games this past weekend, so the Minnesota lineup is in good form at the moment and has a chance to keep that going against an unreliable Giolito.

Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts, Under 2.5 ER, Under 1.5 Walks (-175 at DraftKings)

There are a lot of good options on Monday for Steele, who is facing the Giants. Steele currently ranks second in the majors in wins with 15 and second in ERA at 2.69. The lefty is fresh off six shutout innings in a big game with the Brewers in his last start and has helped the Cubs win each of his last eight starts. He’s also facing a San Francisco lineup that got shut out on Sunday and has scored just four runs in its last three games.

More specifically, it’s shocking that his strikeout total is only 5.5 on Monday. We would have been comfortable going over 6.5 strikeouts because the Giants have the fourth-most strikeouts in baseball this year. But over 5.5 is a no-brainer because Steele has at least six strikeouts in six straight starts and eight of his last nine starts. He’s also held three straight teams to two earned runs or less. If he allows more than two runs, it’s usually not by much, as Steele hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a game since May. Dating back to the all-star break, six of nine teams have failed to score more than two earned runs against Steele. Finally, he just doesn’t walk many batters, walking seven in 34.1 innings during the month of August. Dating back to May, Steele has walked one batter or less in 15 of his last 18 starts, so the odds are in his favor.

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