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Best MLB Prop Bets Today | MLB Player Props September 11

Written by: Bryan Zarpentine
Published September 11, 2023
18 min read
Best MLB Player Props September 11 23

Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve to Get a Hit (+110 at DraftKings)

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This is a relatively simple same-game parlay but one that can get you to plus odds and has a great chance of hitting. Alvarez and Altuve are obviously great hitters and both have been red-hot over the past week. Altuve is 10 for 28 (.357) with six homers in his last six games while Alvarez is 9 for 19 (.474) with three homers and a double during that same span. Altuve has at least one hit in five of his last six games while Alvarez currently has a five-game hitting streak.

Of course, the kicker is that the Astros are facing Mason Miller and the A’s. While Miller has had a good season, he only pitched two innings last Wednesday, so he’ll just be an opener, leaving a lot of heavy lifting to the Oakland bullpen. That should favor Alvarez and Altuve doing some damage. For anyone feeling adventurous, going over 1.5 total bases for Alvarez and Altuve has some value as well. But betting on each to get one measly hit feels like easy money.

Willi Castro Over 0.5 Hits (-125 at DraftKings)

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It’s almost crazy the value Castro is getting for over 0.5 hits. While he’s a largely unknown entity, even in Minnesota, he’s also one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Castro has been batting .476 since the start of August and has hits in five of his last six games. In fact, he has 10 hits in those six games. The Twins will surely be riding the hot hand on Monday and bettors should do the same despite the fact that he’s relatively unknown.

In fairness, Castro and the Twins will face Tyler Glasnow, who’s had a great run lately. But Glasnow has had some ups and downs lately and has looked hittable at times. While he struck out 14 and conceded just three hits in his last start, Glasnow has also allowed at least seven hits in two of his last four starts. Given how hot Castro has been lately, he has an excellent chance of keeping up his hitting streak against Glasnow on Monday.

Framber Valdez Under 2.5 ER (-160), Over 18.5 Outs (+110), To Record a Win (+105 at DraftKings)

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With Valdez and the Astros facing the A’s on Monday, this is a great time to go all-in on him. Frankly, we were prepared to take under 1.5 earned runs with Valdez. That’s how bad Oakland’s lineup is and how good Valdez has been lately. The lefty has allowed just three earned runs on 11 hits over his last 20 innings of work, including seven scoreless innings in a start against Detroit last month. He’s in solid form and should have no problem keeping the A’s under wraps.

Meanwhile, since the start of August, Valdez has pitched at least seven full innings five times in seven starts. All he needs is to record one run in the seventh inning to get over 18.5 outs, which has excellent value. When Valdez is pitching well, he’s ultra-efficient, allowing him to pitch deep into games. That should be the case against the A’s. Naturally, if Valdez pitches deep in the game, there is a better chance he’ll be the winning pitcher, which also has plus value. Against the A’s, there is obviously an excellent chance Houston will win with Valdez earning the win as well.

Logan Gilbert To Record Win (+105), Over 4.5 Hits (+100 at DraftKings)

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The Angels are just 3-7 in September, scoring three runs or less in six of those games. Given those struggles, there is a great opportunity to back Gilbert and the Mariners. Gilbert is getting plus odds to be the winning pitcher, which is a pleasant surprise for a guy who already has 13 wins this year. Against the Angels, who are scuffling down the stretch, Seattle has an excellent chance to win. They are also 10-2 in Gilbert’s starts since the beginning of July. Of those 10 wins by the Mariners, Gilbert has been the winning pitcher eight times.

The caveat is that we’ll back the Angels to get at least five hits against him. In those same 12 starts, Gilbert has allowed at least five hits nine times. While he’s had a few outings when he’s pitched lights-out, Gilbert tends to scatter a few hits. In fact, he’s allowed at least seven hits in four of his last five starts. While the Angels are bad offensively with Mike Trout and others injured, they aren’t completely inept. They should be able to manage five hits against Gilbert, even if he and the Mariners get the win.

Jose Quintana Over 16.5 Outs (-135), Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105), Over 1.5 Walks (-190 at DraftKings)

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Quintana has pitched surprisingly well for the hapless Mets down the stretch, and on Monday, he’ll face a young Arizona lineup that’s scored just six runs over the last three games. That gives Quintana a chance to hit the over on multiple bets. For starters, over 16.5 outs means he needs to record two outs in the fifth inning. In his nine starts this season, Quintana has completed six full innings seven times, so history is on his side with that bet.

There is also tons of value in Quintana’s strikeout number. The lefty isn’t the prototypical power pitcher who collects a lot of strikeouts. But he's hit five strikeouts in five of his nine starts this year. His propensity for going deep into games and the fact that most of Arizona’s lineup has limited experience facing him should work in Quintana’s favor. At the same time, Quintana doesn’t give in to hitters, which is why his walk rate is reasonably high. His last start snapped a stretch of seven straight starts in which he walked at least two batters. In fact, Quintana has walked three or more batters in five of his nine starts this year. Again, going deep into games also works in favor of Quintana walking multiple batters in this game.

See different MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!

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Bryan Zarpentine

162 Articles

Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.

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