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Best MLB Prop Bets Today | MLB Player Props September 25

Written by: Bryan Zarpentine
Published September 25, 2023
6 min read
Best MLB Player Prop Bets Today September 25

J.P. Crawford, Ty France, and Teoscar Hernandez to Get a Hit (+285 at DraftKings)

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As we’ll see later, Justin Verlander hasn’t been at his best recently in anticipation of Monday’s start against the Mariners. That’s why it’s worthwhile to take a chance on this same-game parlay that includes three different Mariners getting at least one hit. Ty France is the one optional piece because he’s batting just .208 in his last six games. But his career numbers against Verlander are too good to ignore. France is 10 for 23 (.435) with three extra-base hits against Verlander, so this is worth the risk.

Meanwhile, Crawford is 8 for 23 (.348) against Verlander while Hernandez is 3 for 4 with a double in limited at-bats against the multiple Cy Young winner. Equally important, these are two of Seattle’s hottest hitters right now. In the team’s last six games, Crawford is batting .308 while Hernandez is batting .292. Both players hit a home run on Sunday, so each player is confident and shouldn’t be fazed by facing Verlander in a big game.

Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 at DraftKings)

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Semien is getting plus odds to amass over 1.5 total bases for a red-hot Texas team on Monday, and those odds are too good to ignore. The Rangers have won five in a row and are now in the driver's seat inside the AL West, so Semien and his teammates should be confident heading into Monday’s series opener against the Angels. Semien is also 3 for 8 with two extra-base hits in his career against LA starter Patrick Sandoval, so this is a favorable matchup for him.

More importantly, Semien homered twice on Sunday, so this is a great opportunity to ride the hot hand. That’s now three homers in his last six games for Semien. In fact, he has three multi-hit games in his last six games and a hit in six of his last eight games. With Semien, there is always a chance that one hit can get him over 1.5 total bases. With a hot bat and a favorable pitching matchup, he’s an excellent target for prop bets on Monday.

Justin Verlander Over 2.5 ER (-155), Over 4.5 Hits (-170), Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100 at DraftKings)

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Monday's game begins a massive series for both Verlander’s Astros and the Mariners. However, Houston is 3-9 in the team’s last 12 games, so the Astros are fading down the stretch, making it a good idea to fade Verlander against Seattle. The Astros are just 1-3 in his starts in September with Verlander posting a 5.19 ERA. He’s still going deep in games but is giving up a lot of damage along the way.

In three of his four September starts, Verlander has allowed at least three earned runs. That includes giving up six runs against the Yankees and five runs against the A’s. Needless to say, those subpar performances are a bad sign. Verlander has also allowed exactly eight hits in three of those four starts, so he’s been hittable lately. In fact, going back to his time with the Mets, he’s given up at least five hits in eight of his last 10 starts. Likewise, he’s only surpassed six strikeouts in four of his last 11 starts and just once in his four September starts. Everything is going south for him right now and may not turn around against a Seattle lineup that’s scored at least five runs in five of the team’s last six games.

Luis Castillo Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-125), Under 5.5 Hits (-135), Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140 at DraftKings)

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It’ll be Castillo and the Mariners opposing Verlander’s Astros on Monday, and it’s Seattle’s ace who you want to back in this game. The Mariners currently have a 10-game winning streak in Castillo’s starts. He also holds a 3.38 ERA in September and has now allowed two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts and eight of his last 11 starts. Castillo also allowed just one unearned run over seven innings the last time he faced the Astros, so he can handle Houston’s challenging lineup.

In that early July meeting, the Astros managed just five hits during Castillo’s seven innings. Surprisingly, the Mets are the only team to collect more than five hits against Castillo in his last six starts. He’s giving up an average of 4.3 hits per game during that stretch, putting Castillo in a good position to keep the Astros quiet on Monday. That game against the Mets is also the only time in Castillo’s last six starts that he’s failed to strike out at least six batters. In fact, he’s had exactly eight punch-outs in each of his last three starts. Going back even further, Castillo has recorded at least six strikeouts in 10 of his last 12 starts, which is enough of a recent sample size to back him getting half a dozen strikeouts on Monday.

Blake Snell to Record Win (+110), Under 1.5 ER (-105), Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-140 at DraftKings)

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Snell is trying to put the finishing touches on a Cy Young campaign, making this a good time to back him in a big way. He ranks first in ERA at 2.33 and fourth in strikeouts while also owning a 0.72 ERA during his four starts in September. The kicker is that he’s facing the Giants on Monday, a team he’s dominated in the past. The players on San Francisco’s roster are hitting a combined .154 against Snell in their careers, creating even more reason to back Snell.

For starters, the Padres are 10-1 in Snell’s last 11 starts with the lefty being the winning pitcher in eight of those 10 wins. Somehow, he still has plus odds to record the win on Monday, making that an obvious bet. Meanwhile, he’s pitched at least six full innings in eight straight starts, so going over 17.5 outs shouldn’t be an issue either. The Papers aren't going to the postseason, so they have no reason to limit his innings. Plus, Snell has allowed zero runs in four of his last five starts. The Astros scored a couple of runs against him earlier this month but every other team has been held scoreless, including the Giants earlier this month. With the Giants scoring two runs or less in four of their last five games, they are ice-cold offensively and don’t stand a chance against Snell.

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Bryan Zarpentine

Sports Betting Analyst & Content Specialist

Expertise:
MLB
NCAAB
NFL
Online Sports Betting
Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Arts
Favourite Sportsbook: BetMGM Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
Experience:
14 years
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