Best NRFI Bets This Weekend, October 7-8

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers - Merrill Kelly (R) vs Clayton Kershaw (L)

Under 0.5 Runs (-132 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

This matchup features two offenses loaded with talent, but we see a quiet first inning unfolding on Saturday. One reason for that belief is that Arizona’s offense does not score many first-inning runs. They have failed to do so in their previous eight games, some of which ended with them scoring double-digit run totals. We saw how good their offense can be against the Brewers, but it took them a few innings to get going. Given Kershaw is pitching well, we don’t see that trend ending tonight.

Speaking of Clayton Kershaw (13-5, 2.46 ERA), he is no longer the MVP he once was but has been pitching well for LA. Though he rarely lasts more than five innings, he has a 1.69 ERA since June 1. That includes a home start against Arizona, where he held them scoreless until the fifth inning. Kershaw has allowed a first-inning run to score just once over his last 15 starts, which has us feeling confident he will add to that total in this one.

The Diamondbacks will have Merrill Kelly (12-8, 3.29 ERA) starting tonight. The 34-year-old may not get a win tonight, but we love his chances to have a clean first inning. One reason is that opponents are batting just .188 the first time through the lineup. The other is that the Dodgers have been sitting at home this week, waiting for the Wild Card series to be completed. The last time the Dodgers were off for this long was at the All-Star break, and it took them five innings to even get a hit in their first game back. We see a similar situation tonight, though it may not last quite as long.

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros - Bailey Ober (R) vs Justin Verlander (R) 

Under 0.5 Runs (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Minnesota Twins managed a two-game sweep of a very good Toronto offense. They allowed just one run thanks to a combination of fantastic pitching and defense. Now, they will face an Astros offense that is also loaded with talent. As good as Houston is, they have several key players who went cold at the end of the season. That resulted in them scoring two or fewer runs in three of their final five games. Add that to the fact that they have been off for five days, and you get a recipe for a quiet first inning.

Houston will face a challenge tonight with righty Bailey Ober (8-6, 3.43 ERA) starting for Minnesota. He spent a brief stint in the Minors in early September, but he has been fantastic in his four starts since returning. Ober has a 2.12 ERA across 21 ⅔ innings during that span, and we see him staying hot to begin the afternoon. Given how much time Houston has been off, we think he will remain hot to cruise through the first inning today.

The Astros will send Justin Verlander (13-8, 3.22 ERA) to take on the Twins today. The former Cy Young winner has pitched well since rejoining the Astros at the trade deadline. He finished the season red-hot, allowing just four runs over his final three starts (19 innings). He will face a Twins lineup that has struggled against him in the past, posting a combined .149 batting average against the future Hall of Famer.