Best NRFI Bets Today: Negative Regression Looms Over the Angels

After a hot start to the year, negative regression looms large over the Los Angeles Angels on Monday night as they face off against Dylan Cease who excels at avoiding contact. Shortly after their opening pitch, we turn our attention towards the Seattle Mariners and Athletics with two productive arms set to take the mound.

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Best NRFI Bets for Monday, April 20

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels - Dylan Cease vs. Reid Detmers (9:38 PM, EST)

Even with Mike Trout back in the lineup, expect the Angels to fall hard back down to reality with Dylan Cease projected to get the start.

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

In his first year with the Toronto Blue Jays, Dylan Cease has been able to thrive, averaging an ERA of 1.74 and a FIP of 1.91. Cease’s hot start to the season can be attributed to his high Whiff Rate, generating less than one Hit Against and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

Heading into Monday night, Cease will need to continue to play at a high level, battling it out against the Los Angeles Angels who rank above league average in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage. Even with his back end struggling in coverage, Cease’s ability to put opposing batters in low quality contact scenarios will help them round back into form, lowering the probability of him getting burned by an error.

On the other end, Reid Detmers is in a favorable position to keep a clean sheet by exploiting a Blue Jays lineup who grades out poorly in RBIs and in Runs Scored. With Detmers averaging a WHIP of 1.059 and less than one Hit per inning, expect the Angels pitcher to continue to hold Toronto out of scoring position and exit the first inning without conceding a run.

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Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners - J.T. Ginn vs. Emerson Hancock (9:40 PM, EST)

Seattle must take advantage of their divisional matchup against the Athletics in order to avoid falling further down the AL West standings. Maintaining a strong performance in this series will be crucial for improving their current AL West odds and closing the gap on the division leaders.

Under 0.5 Run (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since the start of the regular season, Emerson Hancock has been a steady source of production for the Seattle Mariners, averaging an ERA of 2.28, a WHIP of 0.761, and a FIP of 2.74. Hancock’s success stems from his elite command of the ball, averaging just one Walk per game and less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched.

In a favorable matchup against the Athletics, expect Hancock to build on his momentum as he faces off against a lineup who resides in the bottom half of the board in Hit Rate and in OPS. Especially with his back end excelling in coverage per their top-10 mark in Fielding Percentage, narrowing the width of the A’s gaps in the outfield which will leave them vulnerable to a slow start to the contest.

In an attempt to match their output, the A’s roll out J.T. Ginn who has had a productive start to his 2026 campaign, averaging a WHIP of 0.980. With the Mariners ranking below league average in On Base Percentage, expect Ginn to continue to keep them out of scoring position, increasing his chances of keeping a clean sheet in the first inning.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies - Justin Wrobleski vs. Jose Quintana - Ranking in the top-2 in RBIs and in OPS, expect the reigning World Series champions top of their order to open up the scoring right away as they face off against Jose Quintana who is averaging a FIP of 7.00 and nearly two runners on base per inning. With their star-studded lineup primed for a fast start, it is no surprise that the club continues to maintain some of the shortest MLB World Series odds in the league.

• Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals - Bryce Elder vs. Jake Irvin - With Jake Irvin averaging an ERA of 6.16 while supported by a back end who ranks 26th in Defensive Efficiency, his struggles on the mound are poised to persist on Monday night, battling it out against Atlanta who leads the league in Contact Rate.

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