Best NRFI Bets Today: Continue to Fade the Guardians Top of Their Order

With the Cleveland Guardians carrying over their low level of play on offense into this season, positive regression looms large over Steven Matz who has struggled to find his footing yet excels at avoiding contact. Later in the night, we turn our attention to the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays with both underwhelming lineups facing off against a pair of productive arms on the mound.

Looking for more MLB betting insights? Check our selection of the Best MLB Home Run Props Today.

Best NRFI Bets for Monday, April 27

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Steven Matz vs. Parker Messick (6:10 PM, EST)

With Steven Matz putting opposing batters in low quality contact scenarios, expect the Cleveland Guardians to continue to struggle with getting on base by barreling up the ball.

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After residing near the bottom of the board in most offensive metrics last year, the Cleveland Guardians have carried over their struggles into this season, ranking below league average in Contact Rate and in Runs Scored. Their lack of production on offense brings in a higher amount of variance into their contests, lowering their chances of winning.

Heading into Monday night, expect the Guardians struggles to continue to persist as they face off against the Tampa Bay Rays Steven Matz who is currently averaging less than one Hit Against and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched. Especially with his back end excelling in coverage, ranking fourth in Defensive Efficiency.

With the Guardians lineup struggling to find their footing, it is up to Parker Messick to keep it close enough for them to be competitive, battling it out against a Rays offense who grades out well in Hit Rate. Luckily for the Guardians, Messick is more than capable of bringing the Rays back down to reality, averaging an ERA of 1.76, a WHIP of 0.880, and less than one Hit per inning.

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Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Ranger Suarez vs. Dylan Cease (7:07 PM, EST)

In a AL East divisional matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays, expect runs to come at a premium with two productive pitchers facing off against each other.

Under 0.5 Run (-145) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After taking the Los Angeles Dodgers the distance in the World Series, the Toronto Blue Jays have been unable to build on their momentum, crashing down to the bottom of the board in Runs Scored, RBIs, and in On Base Percentage. Their lack of production throughout their lineup makes it hard for them to advance their runners, leading to prolonged scoring lulls. Consequently, their World Series odds have plummeted as analysts begin to question their postseason viability.

Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, their low level of play on offense will be on full display against the Boston Red Sox as they face off against Ranger Suarez who is averaging a WHIP of 1.148. While his low Strikeout Rate is certainly a cause for concern, Suarez makes up for it by avoiding costly mistakes, generating less than two Walks per game.

On the other end, Dylan Cease is expected to take the mound for the Blue Jays, a contender for the AL Cy Young award who is averaging a FIP of 1.47 and more than one Strikeout per inning. Given his dominant start to the season, Cease has seen a significant shift in his AL Cy Young odds as he climbs the leaderboards. With the Red Sox ranking near dead last in Contact Rate, expect Cease to continue to create Whiffs at a high rate and hold them scoreless in the first inning.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Chris Paddack vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto - With Chris Paddack averaging over 1.5 runners on base per inning, the Los Angeles Dodgers will be able to get into scoring position from the opening pitch as he faces off against an offense who ranks in the top-2 in Hit Rate, RBIs, and OPS.

• Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Luis Castillo vs. Connor Prielipp - Expect the Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins to open up the scoring early, facing off against a pair of arms who are both averaging more than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched and an ERA higher than 4.50.

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