Best NRFI Bets Today: Positive Regression Looms Large Over Jack Flaherty

With the New York Mets struggling to find their footing on offense, positive regression looms large over Jack Flaherty on Tuesday night with the Detroit Tigers pitcher generating Strikeouts at a high rate.

Shortly after their opening pitch, we turn our attention towards the Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox with a pair of productive arms set to take the mound.

Looking for more MLB betting insights? Check our selection of the Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today.

Best NRFI Bets for Tuesday, May 12

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Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets - Jack Flaherty vs. Freddy Peralta (7:10 PM, EST)

After a slow start to the year, expect Jack Flaherty to round back into dominant form by taking advantage of a New York Mets lineup who struggles with making contact.

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It has been a turbulent start to the year for Jack Flaherty as the Detroit Tigers pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 5.56, a WHIP of 1.647, and a FIP of 5.29. Even during his cold stretch of play, Flaherty has still been able to create Whiffs at a high rate, generating over one Strikeout per inning. 

Fortunately for Flaherty, he will have a great opportunity to get into a groove against the New York Mets by attacking a lineup who ranks below league average in Hit Rate, RBIs, and in On Base Percentage. Even with his back end underwhelming in coverage, Flaherty’s aggression will put the Mets in low quality contact scenarios, lowering the probability of getting burned by an error in the outfield.

On the other end, Freddy Peralta has been far more productive this season, averaging an ERA of 3.12 and a FIP of 3.72. While his WHIP is certainly alarming, Peralta is able to mask it by generating less than one Hit per game. With the Tigers struggling to string together their Hits, expect Peralta to keep them out of scoring position and keep a clean sheet in the first inning.

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Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Stephen Kolek vs. Erick Fedde (7:40 PM, EST)

Expect no runs to be scored in the first inning of this divisional matchup between the Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox. With both lineups severely struggling to make solid contact at the plate, it is easy to see why these squads are tumbling down the AL Central odds board.

Under 0.5 Run (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since the start of the regular season, Stephen Kolek has been able to keep opposing runners off the bases, averaging a WHIP of 0.667. Kolek’s success on the mound stems from his low opposing contact rate, generating less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

In a favorable matchup against the Chicago White Sox, expect Kolek to build on his momentum by exploiting an offense who resides near the bottom of the board in Hit Rate. Especially with his back end narrowing the width of the White Sox gaps in the outfield with their coverage, surrounding Kolek with a back end who ranks in the top-10 in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

In an attempt to match Kolek’s individual production, the White Sox roll out Erick Fedde who is averaging an ERA of 3.79 and a WHIP of 1.132. With the Royals also grading out poorly in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics, expect Fedde to continue to avoid contact while attacking the plate and escape the first inning without conceding a Run.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Adrian Houser vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto - With the Los Angeles Dodgers ranking in the top-3 in Hit Rate and in OPS, the reigning World Series champions will be able to get into scoring position from the opening pitch as they face off against Adrian Houser, who is carrying a dangerously high WHIP of 1.541. It is exactly this relentless offensive firepower that keeps Los Angeles firmly anchored at the very top of the World Series odds board.

• Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros - Bryan Woo vs. Tatsuya Imai - Expect Seattle to break out of their slump against Tatsuya Imai, battling it out against an arm who is averaging more than two runners on base per inning and a defense who ranks near dead last in Defensive Efficiency.

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