Best NRFI Bets Today, August 10

Astros vs Orioles - Hunter Brown vs Dean Kremer

Over 0.5 Runs (-130 at DraftKings)

There is no doubt that both of these teams are capable of putting runs on the board, both early in games and late in games. Houston ranks third in the majors in first-inning runs this year while the Orioles are middle of the pack. Even in a day game, there is a chance one of these teams can get something going early. While Hunter Brown and Dean Kremer have both had good seasons, they’ve both been a little vulnerable in the first inning of games, which is why the value is with YRFI in this game.

Brown has had a strong campaign for the Astros, although it’s still unclear if he’s past the struggles he had in July when he pitched to a 5.92 ERA. To his credit, Brown has looked a little better in his last two starts, both against other AL East opponents. But he’s still allowed first-inning runs in two of his last four starts. That has raised his first-inning ERA to 4.29 on the season. Against a quality offensive team like the Orioles that’s been playing exceptional baseball since the all-star break, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Brown have some trouble early in this game.

As for Kremer, he’s had some inconsistencies early in games in 2023. Over his 23 starts, Kremer owns a 5.87 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in the first inning. He’s been able to settle down after that, although he’s had some issues. The good news for the Orioles is that they’ve won Kremer’s last six starts with the righty throwing a scoreless first inning in three straight games. But with Houston’s lineup completely healthy and at full strength, the Astros are a threat to score in the first inning.

Twins vs Tigers - Kenta Maeda vs Reese Olson

Under 0.5 Runs (-105 at DraftKings)

This game staying scoreless in the first inning isn’t quite a slam dunk. Betting on Detroit to remain scoreless in the first inning against Kenta Maeda is safe. However, Reese Olson holding the Twins scoreless is less of a sure thing. That being said, the Twins are hitting NRFI 57% of the time this season. That’s the third-best rate in the majors. The Tigers aren’t far behind at 54%, so with these two teams getting together for a day game, there is a strong possibility of both teams finishing the first inning empty-handed.

As mentioned, Maeda shutting down Detroit is a safe bet. Only four teams have scored fewer runs than the Tigers in the first inning this year. On top of that, Maeda has been dominant in the first inning, pitching to a 1.50 ERA. Granted, he’s only made 12 starts in 2023. But in those 12 starts, Maeda has allowed just two runs on seven hits in the opening inning. He’s also gone four straight starts in which he’s allowed two runs or less and six straight starts without allowing a first-inning run. Odds are the Tigers aren’t going to break that streak.

On the other side, Olson has allowed nine first-inning runs across his nine starts in 2023. The 24-year-old righty owns a 4.94 ERA and is working hard to establish himself. In his last four starts, the opposing team has jumped on him early and been able to score runs. But the Minnesota lineup has been a little erratic lately, even getting shut out on Tuesday. They aren’t exactly at full strength either with Byron Buxton joining Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, and others on the IL earlier this month. With Maeda keeping the Tigers scoreless being close to a lock, it’s worth a chance to think the Twins will be a little sluggish for a Thursday matinee and fail to score in the first inning as well.

Nationals vs Phillies - Patrick Corbin vs Aaron Nola

Over 0.5 Runs (-120 at DraftKings)

A few years ago, a pitching matchup between Patrick Corbin and Aaron Nola could have stayed scoreless deep into the game. But in 2023, this is a game that is likely to feature first-inning runs on either side. Surprisingly, the Nationals rank fifth in the majors this season in first-inning runs. The Phillies aren’t far behind, ranking just outside the top 10. With both teams hitting YRFI more than 50% of the time and both pitchers vulnerable, there is good value in betting on first-inning runs to be scored.

To his credit, Corbin hasn’t had the dreadful season he did a year ago. But he’s still a subpar pitcher, especially in the first inning. Across his 23 starts, Corbin owns a 6.26 ERA, allowing opposing batters to his .302 against him in the first inning, including six home runs. The likes of Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm, and Bryce Harper all have good numbers against him, so Corbin could face some tough matchups in the first inning. Corbin allowed two runs in the first inning against the Reds in his last start and could have similar problems against the Phillies on Thursday night.

Meanwhile, Nola’s first-inning struggles have been a surprise this year. In fact, his entire 2023 season has been a little unusual for him. That includes his 4.70 ERA in the first inning of games. Ironically, Nola settles in quickly and owns a 0.78 ERA in the second inning of games. It’s perhaps a good sign that Nola hasn’t allowed a first-inning run in his last two starts. But those games were against the Royals and Pirates. With the way the Nationals have scored early runs this year, Nola is a good candidate to run into some first-inning trouble on Thursday.

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