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This matchup features NL Central rivals with two pitchers on opposite ends of their careers. At 41 years old, Adam Wainwright may finally be done. He has been shelled in his first two starts, allowing 15 hits and eight runs over ten innings this season. While he has succeeded against Milwaukee over his long career, those numbers have dipped over the last few seasons.
Conversely, the Cardinals have not shown that they can figure out Corbin Burnes. That, combined with the fact that the Cardinals bats cooled last night, has us loving this moneyline bet!
The Brewers (24-18) come into tonight sitting atop the NL Central, 7.5 games in front of the Cardinals. They have struggled in May, winning just one series against the lowly Royals. They were embarrassed by the Cardinals in their series opener but looked much better in their win last night. However, the early loss of Wade Miley forced them to turn to their bullpen early. Fortunately, the Brewers have their ace taking the mound tonight, and we expect him to go deep into this one.
Corbin Burnes (4-2, 3.35 ERA) will get the start for the Brewers tonight. He struggled in his first two starts but has been much better since. Burnes has allowed two or fewer earned runs in his last six starts, despite some struggles with his control. We expect that to continue tonight against a Cardinals team he has dominated throughout his career. The Cardinals lineup has a combined .213 average against Burnes and was overwhelmed by him across four starts last season (1.29 ERA). Even with the Cardinals' offense improving, they still won’t be able to solve the Ace tonight.
The Brewers' offense is streaky, but they should be able to find success against a familiar foe tonight. They hit Wainright well last season, combining for a .305 batting average. On top of that, the Cardinals veteran has been unable to miss bats in 2023. This Brewer team does a great job advancing baserunners through “small ball”, which will spell disaster for the floundering Wainright tonight.
The Cardinals (17-26) continue to try and claw their way out of the NL Central cellar. After being picked by many to win the division, they have been awful in 2023. That includes an eight-game losing streak that stretched from the end of April until the beginning of May. It was a brutal slump, but the Cardinals have now won seven of their last nine games. A big reason for that has been the resurgence of their offense, which has helped cover some issues on the mound. They have looked impressive, but that will change tonight against a Brewers’ starter that has dominated them in the past.
Adam Wainright (0-0, 7.20 ERA) will take the mound for the Cardinals tonight. The aging veteran is having his worst season early in 2023, giving up eight runs and 15 hits over ten innings. He has not looked like the same pitcher of even a year ago, as he struggles to keep runners off the bases. Now he will be looking to bounce back against a Brewers team that hit him well last season. While being at home will help, we don’t see him being able to limit the Crew to less than four runs tonight.
The Cardinals have a combined .307 batting average over the last week, led by the red-hot bat of Nolan Arenado. The third baseman has been bad this year but snapped out of it over the last week to hit five home runs in his previous five games. He is seeing the ball well and finding ways to get on base. Don’t expect that to continue against Burnes tonight. Arenado owns a .190 career average against the Brewers’ ace, which means his home run streak should end tonight. If his bat goes cold, this Cardinals offense won’t have enough to get the win at home.
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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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