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This game features two of the league's worst offenses and a surprisingly great pitching matchup. Wade Miley will shut the Mets down for the second time this season, while the Brewers' lackluster lineup will need time to figure out Kodai Senga. We expect a low-scoring game as these two starters turn things over to the bullpen, leading to an easy cover of under 8.5.
The Brewers' offense has been atrocious in 2023. They rank twenty-ninth in batting average, twenty-sixth in strikeouts, twenty-fifth in runs, and twenty-eighth in team OPS. The Crew took a risk by adding Jesse Winker to help bolster this offense, but he has looked far from the player he was with the Reds.
Another significant reason for Milwaukee’s offensive woes is Willy Adames. The shortstop’s average has been around the Mendoza line (.200) since mid-May, which has greatly impacted this lineup. Adames was supposed to be the heart that could provide home runs and hits in critical situations. Instead, he has become a liability to this team. Until he breaks out of this slump, we’ll stick with the under when betting on the Brewers.
The Milwaukee Brewers will send Wade Miley (5-2, 2.91 ERA) out to the mound tonight. The 36-year-old has been a reliable pitcher in this league for a long time, but his best two seasons have come with the Brewers. While Miley won’t overwhelm opponents, he does a fantastic job generating weak contact, leading to his impressive season stats. We like his chance to have another fantastic performance tonight against the Mets, as the veteran threw six shutout innings when he faced them earlier this year.
While we knew the Brewers' offense wasn’t great, the Mets came in with high expectations. Instead, they rank in the bottom ten in the league in batting average, slugging percentage, and team OPS. The team hasn’t strung together wins since June 16, leading to them trailing the division-leading Braves by 16 games. Considering how well Wade Miley has been pitching, it is hard to see the Mets' offense coming to life against the Brewers tonight.
New York’s offensive struggles are in part due to the struggles of Pete Alonso. The slugger is third in the league in home runs and sixth in RBIs, but his average has taken a nose dive. Alonso has a .157 batting average in June, with just three hits that were not home runs. While he may launch one tonight, the lack of Mets baserunners limits the damage he can do.
After a bumpy start to the season, Kodai Senga (6-5, 3.52 ERA) has become a solid pitcher for this Mets team. The 30-year-old is in his first season in the MLB, and he has shown he belongs. Senga had a 2.79 ERA in May and owns a 3.74 ERA in June, which is inflated by a lousy start against Toronto at the beginning of the month. The righty has two advantages coming into tonight. First, he is playing a bad Milwaukee offense that has never faced him. The second is that Senga will start at home, where he owns a 2.52 ERA across seven starts this season. Look for him to baffle Brewers batters, leading to a low-scoring game.
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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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