Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets: A Recipe for Low Scoring

Written by: Tony Garcia
Updated October 14, 2022
5 min read
  • Skidding Brewers turn to Ace vs dominant Mets
  • Can Milwaukee offense find a way to break out
  • X-factors to watch

Brewers vs Mets Odds

Brewers Vs Mets 2022 06 15 Pete Alonso

Brewers vs Mets Prediction and Picks

The Brewers haven’t been able to score consistently for weeks while the Mets have to go up against one of the toughest pitchers to score against. It seems like a recipe for low scoring, Corbin Burnes hasn’t been his usual self this month which does give some pause. However these are typically low scoring games when these two meet, so we’re going to take:

Under (U 7.5)

Mets moneyline (-125)

  • Brewers are 14-5 in their last 19 Wednesday games
  • Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs a left-handed starter
  • Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 vs a team with a winning record
  • Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road favorite
  • Brewers are 1-6 in their last 7 vs National League East
  • Brewers are 1-9 in their last 10 overall
  • Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5
  • Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 vs a team with a winning record
  • Under is 29-14-3 in Brewers last 46 games vs a left-handed starter
  • Brewers are 20-8 in the last 28 head-to-head meetings
  • Under is 8-1 in the last 9 head-to-head meetings
  • Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog
  • Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs a team with a winning record
  • Mets are 23-9 in their last 32 home games
  • Mets are 11-5 in their last 16 overall
  • Over is 7-1 in Mets last 8 home games
  • Over is 13-5-1 in Mets last 19 overall

Garcia’s 2022 record: (20-12)

Can Brewers Ace Help Snap the Skid?

Don’t look now, but the Brewers are losing ground fast in the NL Central.

Two weeks ago, they had a 3.5 game lead over the Cardinals, but with their foe’s recent surge, they now find themselves 2.5 games back. The Brewers are officially ice cold, having gone 1-9 in their past 10 and 2-11 in their last 13.

If there’s anybody who they want on the mound to end the losing streak, it’s the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes. The power righty hasn’t been what he was last year, but he’s still been largely fantastic and should have a much better record than he does.

On the year, he’s 3-4. But that doesn’t tell the full story of him ranking 11th in ERA (2.48), ninth in WHIP (0.96) and holding the second most strikeouts (92) in all of baseball.

In April and May he was dominant, holding a 1.95 ERA with 78 strikeouts and 11 walks. However his two starts in the month of June have been a different story, giving up six earned runs while not making it out of the fifth inning in either appearance. His ERA this month is 6.75.

He will be countered by Mets lefty David Peterson, who isn’t a household name but has been sneaky effective for New York. Peterson has made eight appearances (six starts) and has a 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHP and 32 strikeouts in 36 innings.

New York is 7-1 in games he’s pitched in, with the lone loss coming on April 11 to the Phillies.

Can Brewers Offense Get Going?

There have been a number of reasons Milwaukee has been in a skid over the past two weeks, but what’s likely at the top of the list is the offense.

The Brewers were shutout on Tuesday by the Mets, marking the fourth time in 10 games they’ve failed to score a run. During that same 10-game stretch, Milwaukee is averaging just 2.4 runs per game.

Christian Yelich has been carrying the load the past week (though it hasn’t resulted in wins) going 11-for-26 (.423), though 10 of those hits are singles and the only other was a solo home run. Meanwhile three of the key hitters in Luis Urias (2-for-21), Hunter Renfroe (3-for-24) and Willy Adames (3-for-20) are a combined 8-for-65 over the past week.

To make matters worse for the Brewers, as a team they’re hitting just .216 off lefties this year as opposed to .238 vs righties.

X-factors to Watch

The X-factor we’re going to watch on the Brewers is Willy Adames. Despite his struggles this year (hitting .195) he leads the team with 11 home runs, three of which have come off of lefties in just 36 at bats.

For New York, we’re going to watch Pete Alonso. The Mets power hitter has hit 14 home runs and driven in 46 RBIs when facing right-handed pitchers and is hitting .303 with a .366 OBP.

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How to Watch Brewers vs Mets

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Information
Teams Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets
Location Citi Field, Queens, New York
Time Wednesday, June 15, 7:10  p.m. EST
How to watch Bally Sports Wisconsin, Fox Sports 1, SportsNet New York
21+ | Terms and conditions apply
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Image for Tony Garcia

Tony Garcia

Sports Betting Analyst

Expertise:
MLB
NCAAF
Betting Picks
Tony writes about baseball for WSN.com after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.
Nationality: American
Education: M.A. in Journalism
Favourite Sportsbook: ClutchBet Sportsbook
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Experience:
8 years
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