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The Brewers have been the hotter team in this matchup, but the pitching has us loving this run-line bet for the Cubs. We see Justin Steele replicating his dominant performance against the Brewers in April while Adrian Houser’s struggles at home continue. The Brewer’s offense has been generating some late runs, but it has taken a lot of time for them to get going. They have benefited from defensive lapses and poor officiating in many of these late-inning rallies, and that luck will run out tonight. Expect a lopsided score as the Cubs close out the series with a win.
The Cubs' charge up the NL Central standings came to a crashing halt over the last two weeks. Chicago has lost seven of their previous ten games, primarily due to significant issues with their pitching. While the offense has struggled with consistency, they have shown they can jump all over bad pitching. While Houser’s ERA isn’t bad, how 1.51 WHIP means he is allowing a lot of runners. That will give the Cubs offense plenty of chances to score runs while Justin Steele shuts down the Milwaukee Offense.
Steele (9-2, 2.43 ERA) will get the start for the Cubs tonight, which is bad news for Milwaukee. They faced the Cubs ace in April and were shut out across six innings, managing just three hits. That performance was hardly a surprise considering Steele had a 2.03 ERA across six starts against the Crew in 2022. We saw the Brewers' offense stall against the Cubs yesterday, and we see that happening again against Steele tonight.
Our player to watch for the Cubs today is shortstop Dansby Swanson. The veteran has a .563 batting average against the Brewers this season, and he has been fantastic through the first two games of the series. Swanson had multi-hit performances in the first two games of this series, and we see that trend continuing against Houser tonight.
The Brewers have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last two weeks, despite their loss yesterday. Their success can be traced to their offense getting hot, but we have seen this happen a few times this season. The Milwaukee lineup lacks star power and has been one of the streakiest units in the league. Despite their recent play, the Crew will rank twenty-ninth in batting average (.228), twenty-fifth in on-base percentage (.308), and twenty-seventh in slugging percentage (.373) and OPS (.681). Those are ugly numbers, and they indicate a quiet night against Steele.
Adrian Houser (3-2, 3.88 ERA) will be on the bump for the Brewers tonight. The veteran has missed some time with injury but has been decent across his nine starts this season. The biggest issue is his ability to go deep into games, making it through the sixth inning just three times this season. He also sports a WHIP of 1.51, which is a major red flag. Add that to his 4.67 ERA at home this season, and you can see why we are all over the Cubs' run line tonight.
Our player to watch for Milwaukee tonight is Willy Adames. The shortstop sports an average just over the .200 mark, where it has hovered for most of June. While he has been seeing the ball a bit better lately, he has hit a home run in just one game since June 7. Adames was expected to be one of the Brewers' top offensive threats again this season, and his lack of production has been felt. Adames has struck out in seven of his 16 at-bats against Steele, and we see him adding to that total tonight.
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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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