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Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook. See different MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!
Our Pick: Dodgers to Win
With time running out in the season, the Seattle Mariners begin a critical three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday night. Seattle is firmly in the playoff picture but doesn’t have much margin for error coming down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are on the verge of clinching their 10th NL West title in the last 11 years and need to think about building some momentum heading into the postseason.
While the Dodgers can’t clinch the NL West title on Friday, they could do so at some point this weekend. They are also in good shape to finish with the second-best record in the National League, earning a bye in the playoffs. However, September has not been a kind month for Los Angeles. They are just 5-7 this month and would like to start to get on track after losing a series against the Padres earlier this week.
As for the Mariners, they are in the middle of both the AL West race and the Wild Card race. They are currently 1.5 games behind the Astros in the AL West, although the red-hot Rangers are also a factor in that race. The good news is that Seattle is holding onto a Wild Card spot but holds a slim lead over Toronto for the final playoff spot. Like the Dodgers, the Mariners have sputtered in September, going 5-8 despite coming off back-to-back wins against the Angels this week.
With both teams struggling to get going at the moment, the Dodgers are only slight favorites to win Friday’s series opener. DraftKings gives Los Angeles a moneyline of -112 while Seattle’s moneyline is listed at -108. There is also an over/under of just 7.5 runs.
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Bobby Miller will get the ball for the Dodgers on Friday. The 24-year-old has put together an impressive season after injuries to the Los Angeles rotation forced him up to the big leagues. He’s 9-3 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. However, Miller is coming off a game in which he conceded five runs on six hits over seven innings against the Nationals. While he’s done a good job of pitching deep in games, Miller has allowed at least four runs in three of his last four starts with the Dodgers going 2-2 in those games.
The good news for Miller is that he usually has plenty of run support from one of the best lineups in baseball. Despite the Dodgers scoring just one run in Wednesday’s loss and having a losing record in September, they have scored at least six runs in six of their last seven games. In fact, in their last seven games, they’re averaging 7.3 runs per game. Cy Young contender Blake Snell got the best of them on Wednesday, but the Los Angeles lineup had been clicking previously.
The likes of Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman figure to be a formidable challenge for George Kirby, who starts for Seattle. Kirby has had another good year for the Mariners, going 10-9 with a 3.48 ERA. He’s also third in the majors among starters with a 1.05 WHIP. Plus, most of the LA lineup will be seeing him for the first time. Alas, Kirby hasn’t been at his best lately. He has a 6.75 ERA over his first two starts in September and has allowed at least three runs in four consecutive starts. Even worse, the Mariners are 1-4 in the last five games Kirby has started.
While Kirby is typically capable of winning a pitcher’s duel, he might need some run support on Friday. Unfortunately, Seattle’s lineup has been a little erratic lately. In the team’s 13 games in September, the Mariners have been held to three runs or less six times. With three players who have hit at least 25 homers this year, Seattle’s lineup has some firepower. As a team, the Mariners have also hit 21 homers in September. However, they aren’t getting enough offense right now outside of the trio of Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, and Cal Raleigh. Since Kirby hasn’t been at his best, the Mariners may not find enough offense to beat the Dodgers on Friday.
An over/under of 7.5 runs is a little shocking for this game. While Miller and Kirby are both excellent pitchers, neither has been at their best lately. Also, both the Dodgers and Mariners hit the over more times than not. In fact, Los Angeles is the best team in baseball at hitting the over at more than 61%. The Dodgers are also 47-20-4 O/U (70.2%) on the road and have seen eight of their last nine games finish with more than 7.5 total runs. Even if the Mariners have scuffled a little lately, they are capable of putting a few runs on the board and pushing the total in this game well over 7.5 runs, even if the Dodgers end up doing the heavy lifting.
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AUTHOR
Bryan Zarpentine
98 Articles
Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.
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