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|Los Angeles Dodgers||-1.5 (+100)|
|Over 9 (-110)|
|Baltimore Orioles||+1.5 (-120)|
|Under 9 (-110)|
This game is all set to be one of the most thrilling offensive performances of the season. We have a dicey pitching matchup against two lineups that rank in the top seven of the league in runs scored. We have seen the Dodgers score runs without much issue in the first two games of this series, and we see the Orioles breaking out to follow suit this afternoon. The Dodgers have gone over the total in 59.1% of their games this season, while the Orioles have done so in 55.3%. That gives us plenty of reason to take the over here, so we are running to go lock this one in.
After a slow start to the season, the Dodgers have finally hit their stride and retaken the lead in the NL West. They have now won seven of their last ten games. That includes two wins against this Orioles team. LA’s success has come from their offense, which has scored five or more runs in ten of their previous 11 games. While they will have a shaky Julio Urias on the mound tonight, the Dodgers offense will have no problem keeping up with the Orioles today, leading to a high-scoring game.
Julio Urias (7-5, 4.35 ERA) is having the worst season of his career. His ERA and WHIP (1.11) are well above his career highs, and he has not shown any signs of turning things around. Urias has had some good starts, but consistency has been a big issue. The 26-year-old’s struggles have been amplified on the road this season, where he has a 6.89 ERA over seven starts. That includes rough outings against the Royals, Cardinals, and Cubs, who are all under .500 this season. Baltimore’s offense is better than any of those teams, and it will lead to a big run total tonight.
The Dodgers have no shortage of offensive stars, but Mookie Betts has been the driving force behind their improved play. The veteran has quickly entered the MVP conversation after totaling nine home runs and 22 RBIs in June. Betts has been even better in July, posting a .383 batting average and .809 slugging percentage. When you add those numbers to the fact that he hits in front of Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and JD Martinez, you can see why we love this bet.
The Orioles have been one of the bigger surprises of the season, and they currently own the third-best record in baseball. They stayed hot after the All-Star break by sweeping the Marlins, extending their win streak to eight games. That ended when the Dodgers arrived in Baltimore, taking the series' first two games from the O’s. The team will be set up for a bounceback performance today as they face a struggling Urias. Their offense will be able to take advantage of those struggles, leading to a big run total this afternoon.
Dean Kremer (10-4, 4.59 ERA) will get the start for Baltimore today. While his record is excellent, his ERA indicates that many of those wins have come in high-scoring games. That has especially been the case at home this season, where he owns a 5.07 ERA across ten games. Kremer also struggles in day games and has an ERA of 5.40 across seven starts. Add that to his ugly 1.33 WHIP, and you get a recipe for a big night for the LA lineup.
The Orioles' offense has scored the seventh most runs this season as they continue outperforming expectations. While this lineup lacks the star power of LA, they have the top young catchers in the league. Adley Rutschman has been fantastic in his second season in the big leagues, combining with Anthony Santander and Austin Hays to give the O’s a dangerous trio of hitters. While they have not seen Urias before, we fully expect them to take advantage of his struggles this afternoon.
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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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