Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Profiting Off Struggling Starters on Thursday

Today’s slate of games will feature struggling starters on the mound. With the season almost halfway over, it's clear these pitchers' struggles are more than just a fluke, and likely will continue today. This gives us some fantastic home run prop bet options, prompting us to dig deep for value.

Below, we’ll share our three favorite home run predictions for today, sharing why we are backing each.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Thursday, June 25

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Home Run Picks for Thursday, June 25

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on. 

Joc Caglianone Anytime Home Run (+340) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Our first prediction comes with some fantastic odds. We’re digging deep to back the Royals’ Jac Caglianone, who leads the Royals with 14 home runs on the season. The 23-year-old is coming into his own in his sophomore season and has been red-hot in June. He’s batting .373 with nine home runs this month, resulting in a stellar 1227 OPS.

One big reason why we like Caglianone is Rays’ starter Ian Seymour (3-1, 4.98 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). The reliever joined the rotation in June, but has failed to settle in. He’s 0-1 with a 5.65 ERA over four starts, allowing four home runs over 14 1/3 innings. 

While these two have not squared off in the past, the splits favor the Royals' young star. He’s posted a .513 slugging percentage against southpaws, hitting five home runs.

Another reason to back Caglianone is the Rays’ unusually bad bullpen. They rank 23rd in the league in ERA (4.62) while allowing the second-most home runs (47).

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Casey Schmitt Anytime Home Run (+430) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It’s been a brutal first half of the season for San Francisco, but Casey Schmitt has provided a silver lining. The 27-year-old is having a breakout campaign in his fourth MLB season, posting a .299 average while leading the team with 16 home runs and 42 RBIs. While he has only one home run in June, his .310 average shows he’s still seeing the ball well.

Schmitt and the Giants will be facing one of the league’s worst pitchers in June. Jeffery Springs (3-9, 5.55 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) has had success limiting home runs over his long career, but that’s changed in 2026. He’s allowed a league-high 21 long balls and has already allowed nine over 16 1/3 innings pitched in June. 

While two of those starts were in the launchpad known as Las Vegas Ballpark, the other two were just as bad. Something is seriously wrong with Springs, meaning this could be the last chance we’ll have to profit off his 2026 struggles.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong Anytime Home Run (+340) at FanDuel Sportsbook

There isn’t a ton of value here, but it's one of the safest bets on the board today. PCA continues to mash in June, with a .432 average, 10 home runs, and a ridiculous 1.434 OPS. He went deep to open this series, his sixth over his last eight games. 

The 24-year-old lefty is locked in as he prepares to face a familiar face in New York. 

The Mets will have Freddy Peralta (5-6, 4.83 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) making the start today. He continues to struggle in his first season with the Mets, looking far from the Cy Young candidate he was last season. That was especially evident in his last start, where he allowed 10 earned runs over just 2 2/3 innings. Unsurprisingly, his Cy Young odds have plummeted following these recent struggles.

PCA has gotten the better of the former Brewers’ ace over their 17 meetings in the NL Central. He’s batting .353 with one home run against Peralta, most of which came when the starter was at his best. This historical dominance is an interesting factor to consider when analyzing the latest NL Central odds.

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