When a player is red-hot, you don’t question it; you just ride the wave. That made it easy to pick one of our home run targets for Tuesday. Junior Caminero is insanely hot at the moment, so he can’t be ignored. For our other three picks, we decided to pick on pitchers who have been victimized by the long ball this year, which made Tuesday’s targets rather straightforward.
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| Best Home Run Predictions Today | FanDuel Odds | Kalshi to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero Anytime Home Run | +250 | Tampa Bay Rays 53% |
| Juan Soto Anytime Home Run | +255 | New York Mets 48% |
| Matt Olson Anytime Home Run | +350 | Atlanta Braves 59% |
| Kody Clemens Anytime Home Run | +320 | Minnesota Twins 51% |
| Odds and market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event. | ||
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There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on.
There is no hitter in baseball right now swinging a hotter bat than Caminero. In his last six games, Caminero has seven home runs, including a three-homer game last Thursday. He also has three multi-hit games during that stretch and has homered in four straight games. Even with an off-day for the Rays on Monday, it’d be foolish not to take a chance on Caminero extending that streak.
In fairness, Caminero is hitless in four at-bats against Noah Cameron, who starts for the Royals on Tuesday. Also, only three of his 22 home runs this season have come against left-handed pitchers. But Caminero hasn’t hit seven home runs in six games because of favorable matchups. He’s just in the zone right now, so we have to target him on Tuesday.
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Facing Kevin Gausman on Tuesday will be music to Juan Soto’s ears. Soto is 8 for 17 with two doubles and a home run in his career against Gausman. The ultra-patient Soto has also drawn 12 walks against Gausman. But with both Bo Bichette and Francisco Lindor hitting behind him, the Mets have some protection for Soto, forcing Gausman to pitch to him.
Gausman has posted a 4.36 ERA this season, while also allowing 14 home runs, so he’s not having his best season. In fact, he’s given up at least one home run in all five of his starts in June. Meanwhile, Soto is 4 for 8 with two extra-base hits in his last three games. He’s hitting over .300 right now and trending in the right direction.
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Olson’s power has started to go away. He has just four home runs in June, essentially taking him out of the race for MLB’s home run king. His last home run came on June 12, so it’s been a while. But with three multi-hit games and two doubles in his last four games, Olson is starting to heat up again, and a home run can’t be far behind.
It should help that Olson and the Braves face Matthew Liberatore on Tuesday. The lefty has given up 17 home runs this season, including seven long balls over just 15.2 innings in June. While Olson only has one hit in six career at-bats against Liberatore, he does have eight home runs against lefties this year. Liberatore has actually struggled against left-handed hitters, who are slugging .605 against him, making this a favorable matchup for Olson.
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This might be the first time we’ve targeted Clemens for a home run prop. But he has a respectable 13 home runs for the Twins this season, including two in his last four games. More importantly, Clemens and the Twins are facing Mike Burrows, who has allowed 19 home runs this year. That’s more than any other scheduled starter on Monday, so we have to target someone on the Twins.
In a small sample size, Clemens is 2 for 4 with a home run in his career against Burrows. All but two of his home runs have come against right-handed pitching, which matches up with Burrows, who’s given up 13 of his 19 home runs to left-handed hitters, who are slugging .585 against him. That makes Clemens Minnesota’s best option to go deep against Burrows.
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