When you sign-up through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more >
Our Pick: Orioles to Win
Friday’s MLB schedule includes an important AL East rivalry game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox. Fenway Park will host the first game of a three-game series that’s important for both sides for different reasons. The Orioles are trying to hold off the Rays for the AL East crown and the best record in the American League while the Red Sox are trying to make one final push for a Wild Card spot before they run out of time.
The Orioles head to Fenway Park this weekend on the heels of a five-game winning streak. Baltimore is fresh off a sweep of the Angels earlier this week and is 6-1 on the team’s current road trip. Dating back to the second half of August, the Orioles are 14-4 in their last 18 games, giving them a four-game lead over the Rays in the AL East and the best record in the American League.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are moving in the other direction, losing seven of their last 10 games. Boston had a rough end to the month of August and lost two out of three games against the Rays earlier this week. As it stands, the Red Sox are five games behind the Blue Jays for the final Wild Card spot. However, they appear to be the fourth team in what looks to be a three-horse race for the last two Wild Card spots. In other words, the Red Sox need to start stringing wins together and they need to do it soon.
Despite their recent struggles, the Red Sox are only modest home underdogs on Friday. DraftKings lists Baltimore’s moneyline at -120 compared to Boston’s moneyline of +100. There is also a somewhat ambitious over/under of 10 runs for this game.
The Red Sox hope that Tanner Houck can help them to get a winning streak started on Friday. The righty picked up a win last weekend despite allowing four runs on seven hits over five innings against the Royals. Even with the win, Houck is just 4-8 with a 5.07 ERA on the season. The 27-year-old suffered a facial fracture in mid-June and only returned from the IL in late August. In his three starts since returning from the IL, Houck has allowed eight runs on 16 hits over 14 innings of work, so he’s yet to find the form he started to show before the injury. Plus, dating back to May, the Red Sox are just 2-8 in the last 10 games Houck has started.
With Houck on the mound, it might be up to Boston’s lineup to lead the way on Friday. Despite being held to just one run in Wednesday’s loss to the Rays, Boston’s lineup has averaged 5.3 runs per game thus far in September. Triston Casas has enjoyed a breakout season in 2023 and is also batting .409 with a 1.205 OPS over his last 13 games. During that same 13-game stretch, the Red Sox have hit 21 home runs with Adam Duvall contributing five of them and Alex Verdugo contributing four long balls while hitting .319. That gives the Red Sox some hope that their offense can find some success this weekend.
It’ll be up to Kyle Bradish to cool down Boston’s lineup on Friday. He’s been the winning pitcher in each of his last three starts with Baltimore winning each of his last six starts. The 26-year-old is now 10-6 with a 3.03 ERA, which ranks fifth in the majors. Over his last four starts, Bradish has totaled 24 innings while conceding just six runs on 17 hits, striking out 35 batters during that span. This has arguably been his most impressive stretch of the season in a breakout year. The only caveat is that Bradish was knocked around for seven runs on eight hits over 2.1 innings when he faced the Red Sox in April, meaning Boston's hitters have had their way with him in the past but giving Bradish a chance at redemption on Friday.
The good news for Bradish is that he should be able to count on good run support from the Baltimore offense. The Orioles have scored at least five runs in each game during their five-game winning streak, averaging 7.2 runs per game during that stretch. During the team’s 14-4 stretch, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, and Austin Hays have been particularly impressive. But others have chipped in as well, giving Baltimore’s lineup plenty of depth and 14 home runs in the team’s last 13 games. Against Houck, the Orioles should provide Bradish with more than enough run support if he has another good outing. But even if Bradish struggles, Baltimore is still capable of winning a slugfest against the Red Sox, giving them another path to victory.
Both of these teams are among the best in baseball at hitting the over this season. Baltimore ranks third in the majors at 55.5% while Boston is sixth at 54.4%. The Orioles are even better on the road, hitting the over 59.1% of the time. With the way both teams have produced offensively lately, even the ambitious over/under of 10 runs may not be enough to prevent the Orioles and Red Sox from hitting the over. If Bradish is lights out, the run total should stay under 10 runs. But Boston has been good offensively lately and knocked around Bradish earlier this year, so the value is with the over in this matchup.
Free play options
Special contests for newbies
Bet $5 Get $200 in Bonus Bets
21+ | Terms and conditions apply
Wide range of betting options
Top notch customer service
Promo Code 'SPORTS'
$500 Free Bet
21+ | VA only | Gambling problem? Call 1-800-532-3500
Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.More info on Bryan Zarpentine
© Rebel Penguin ApS 2023 (a subsidiary of Gaming Innovation Group Inc.)
We support responsible gambling. 21+ Only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.
WSN.com is run by iGaming Cloud Inc (a Gaming Innovation Group Subsidiary) and is registered with the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement (DGE) under affiliate vendor ID 89744, with the Indiana Gaming Commission (IGC) under certificate of registration number SWR-000148, approved by the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board as a gaming service provider, under certificate registration number 117656-1, possesses a Vendor Minor sports betting license from the Colorado Limited Gaming Control Commission (account number 94414163), granted a vendor registration number VR007603-20-001 by the Michigan Gaming Control Board, an interim Sports Wagering Supplier license, under license number SWS 066, issued by the West Virginia Lottery Commission, a sports betting vendor registration, under registration number #100400, issued by the Director of Gaming Licensing and Investigations of the Virginia Lottery to operate in the State of Virginia, and a Vendor Registration issued by the Sports Wagering Committee of the Tennessee Education Lottery Corporation.
Advertising disclosure: WSN contains links to online retailers on its website. When people click on our affiliate links and make purchases, WSN earns a commission from our partners, including ESPN and various sportsbooks.